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Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Match Analysis — AFL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Adelaide Crows by 40+
Model score: Adelaide Crows 106 — 67 Richmond Tigers
Total points: the model's 173-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 3 meetings it is Adelaide Crows 2, Richmond Tigers 1, averaging 161.7 total points per game. Adelaide Crows have won 2 of their last 5. Richmond Tigers have won 0 of their last 5.
Last 3 meetings: Adelaide Crows 2, Richmond Tigers 1 — averaging 161.7 total points per game.
- 88 — 94 v Western Bulldogs20 Mar 2026
- 60 — 68 @ Geelong Cats26 Mar 2026
- 76 — 78 v Fremantle Dockers3 Apr 2026
- 114 — 86 v Carlton Blues9 Apr 2026
- 103 — 102 v St Kilda Saints18 Apr 2026
- 60 — 128 v Gold Coast Suns21 Mar 2026
- 43 — 103 @ Fremantle Dockers28 Mar 2026
- 48 — 90 v Port Adelaide Power4 Apr 2026
- 75 — 131 @ GWS Giants12 Apr 2026
- 55 — 130 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos19 Apr 2026
Adelaide Crows
- Jordan Dawson
111.9 SC avg · 25.1 disposals · 1.3 goals · 5.4 marks (16 games)
- Wayne Milera
102.1 SC avg · 25.6 disposals · 0.1 goals · 5.9 marks (17 games)
- Sam Berry
99.9 SC avg · 22.9 disposals · 0.1 goals · 2.6 marks (19 games)
- Josh Worrell
96.9 SC avg · 22.6 disposals · 0.0 goals · 5.9 marks (18 games)
Richmond Tigers
- Toby Nankervis
102.8 SC avg · 15.9 disposals · 0.3 goals · 1.3 marks (8 games)
- Tim Taranto
101.0 SC avg · 24.2 disposals · 0.7 goals · 3.1 marks (17 games)
- Jack Ross
93.1 SC avg · 22.5 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.8 marks (15 games)
- Jayden Short
91.8 SC avg · 23.7 disposals · 0.1 goals · 7.4 marks (17 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members — to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Adelaide Crows and Richmond Tigers team hubs.