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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues Prediction, Tips & Preview - AFL Round 26 2026
Who wins Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues? Our form-based model leans Geelong Cats by 24-39. Read the full preview below.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Geelong Cats by 24-39
Model score: Geelong Cats 103–75 Carlton Blues
Total points: the model's 178-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 4 meetings it is Geelong Cats 1, Carlton Blues 3, averaging 194.5 total points per game. Geelong Cats have won 4 of their last 5. Carlton Blues have won 1 of their last 5.
Last 4 meetings: Geelong Cats 1, Carlton Blues 3, averaging 194.5 total points per game.
- 110–100 v Fremantle Dockers14 Mar 2026
- 68–60 v Adelaide Crows26 Mar 2026
- 91–92 @ Hawthorn Hawks6 Apr 2026
- 122–76 v West Coast Eagles12 Apr 2026
- 131–56 v Western Bulldogs17 Apr 2026
- 75–71 v Richmond Tigers12 Mar 2026
- 77–100 v Melbourne Demons29 Mar 2026
- 86–96 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos3 Apr 2026
- 86–114 @ Adelaide Crows9 Apr 2026
- 83–88 v Collingwood Magpies16 Apr 2026
Geelong Cats
- Bailey Smith
121.0 SC avg · 32.3 disposals · 0.5 goals · 4.0 marks (22 games)
- Max Holmes
114.8 SC avg · 28.3 disposals · 0.2 goals · 4.9 marks (18 games)
- Tom Stewart
92.5 SC avg · 20.7 disposals · 0.1 goals · 5.6 marks (21 games)
- Oliver Dempsey
87.7 SC avg · 19.3 disposals · 1.3 goals · 5.1 marks (23 games)
Carlton Blues
- George Hewett
100.9 SC avg · 23.5 disposals · 0.7 goals · 4.3 marks (20 games)
- Sam Walsh
100.5 SC avg · 29.0 disposals · 0.3 goals · 4.2 marks (23 games)
- Patrick Cripps
99.5 SC avg · 26.7 disposals · 0.7 goals · 2.7 marks (23 games)
- Jagga Smith
89.2 SC avg · 25.0 disposals · 0.4 goals · 3.1 marks (23 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 26 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Geelong Cats and Carlton Blues team hubs.