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Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Match Analysis — AFL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Geelong Cats by 24-39
Model score: Geelong Cats 106 — 77 Essendon Bombers
Total points: the model's 183-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 3 meetings it is Geelong Cats 3, Essendon Bombers 0, averaging 182 total points per game. Geelong Cats have won 4 of their last 5. Essendon Bombers have won 1 of their last 5.
Last 3 meetings: Geelong Cats 3, Essendon Bombers 0 — averaging 182 total points per game.
- 110 — 100 v Fremantle Dockers14 Mar 2026
- 68 — 60 v Adelaide Crows26 Mar 2026
- 91 — 92 @ Hawthorn Hawks6 Apr 2026
- 122 — 76 v West Coast Eagles12 Apr 2026
- 131 — 56 v Western Bulldogs17 Apr 2026
- 70 — 133 @ Port Adelaide Power22 Mar 2026
- 69 — 81 v North Melbourne Kangaroos28 Mar 2026
- 65 — 99 @ Western Bulldogs5 Apr 2026
- 113 — 68 v Melbourne Demons11 Apr 2026
- 110 — 119 @ Gold Coast Suns18 Apr 2026
Geelong Cats
- Bailey Smith
119.6 SC avg · 31.5 disposals · 0.4 goals · 4.0 marks (19 games)
- Max Holmes
114.8 SC avg · 28.3 disposals · 0.2 goals · 4.9 marks (18 games)
- Tom Stewart
94.0 SC avg · 21.0 disposals · 0.1 goals · 5.1 marks (18 games)
- Lawson Humphries
83.3 SC avg · 19.8 disposals · 0.2 goals · 5.7 marks (19 games)
Essendon Bombers
- Zach Merrett
106.5 SC avg · 26.4 disposals · 0.5 goals · 4.8 marks (19 games)
- Archie Roberts
101.1 SC avg · 28.6 disposals · 0.1 goals · 5.8 marks (17 games)
- Mason Redman
86.5 SC avg · 18.6 disposals · 0.3 goals · 5.5 marks (12 games)
- Sam Durham
84.1 SC avg · 19.6 disposals · 0.5 goals · 3.6 marks (18 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members — to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Geelong Cats and Essendon Bombers team hubs.