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Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues Prediction, Tips & Preview - AFL Round 25 2026
Who wins Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues? Our form-based model leans Melbourne Demons by 1-11. Read the full preview below.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Melbourne Demons by 1-11
Model score: Melbourne Demons 96–87 Carlton Blues
Total points: the model's 183-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 3 meetings it is Melbourne Demons 1, Carlton Blues 2, averaging 159.3 total points per game. Melbourne Demons have won 3 of their last 5. Carlton Blues have won 1 of their last 5.
Last 3 meetings: Melbourne Demons 1, Carlton Blues 2, averaging 159.3 total points per game.
- 70–118 @ Fremantle Dockers21 Mar 2026
- 100–77 @ Carlton Blues29 Mar 2026
- 109–89 v Gold Coast Suns5 Apr 2026
- 68–113 @ Essendon Bombers11 Apr 2026
- 104–102 v Brisbane Lions19 Apr 2026
- 75–71 v Richmond Tigers12 Mar 2026
- 77–100 v Melbourne Demons29 Mar 2026
- 86–96 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos3 Apr 2026
- 86–114 @ Adelaide Crows9 Apr 2026
- 83–88 v Collingwood Magpies16 Apr 2026
Melbourne Demons
- Max Gawn
128.0 SC avg · 21.7 disposals · 0.5 goals · 4.5 marks (23 games)
- Jake Bowey
102.4 SC avg · 24.9 disposals · 0.1 goals · 4.1 marks (15 games)
- Kysaiah Pickett
97.5 SC avg · 22.7 disposals · 1.2 goals · 3.0 marks (23 games)
- Jack Steele
94.5 SC avg · 23.5 disposals · 0.2 goals · 3.2 marks (23 games)
Carlton Blues
- George Hewett
100.9 SC avg · 23.7 disposals · 0.7 goals · 4.4 marks (19 games)
- Sam Walsh
100.5 SC avg · 28.5 disposals · 0.4 goals · 4.1 marks (22 games)
- Patrick Cripps
99.5 SC avg · 26.9 disposals · 0.6 goals · 2.6 marks (22 games)
- Jagga Smith
89.2 SC avg · 24.8 disposals · 0.4 goals · 3.1 marks (22 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 25 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Melbourne Demons and Carlton Blues team hubs.