Welcome to The Stats Lab, your new home for advanced analysis and insights for fantasy sportsWelcome to The Stats Lab
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Geelong Cats Prediction, Tips & Preview - AFL Round 23 2026
Who wins North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Geelong Cats? Our form-based model rates it line-ball: too close to split.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Line-ball: too close to split
Model score: North Melbourne Kangaroos 89–90 Geelong Cats
Total points: the model's 179-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 4 meetings it is North Melbourne Kangaroos 0, Geelong Cats 4, averaging 198.8 total points per game. North Melbourne Kangaroos have won 3 of their last 5. Geelong Cats have won 4 of their last 5.
Last 4 meetings: North Melbourne Kangaroos 0, Geelong Cats 4, averaging 198.8 total points per game.
- 94–111 @ West Coast Eagles22 Mar 2026
- 81–69 @ Essendon Bombers28 Mar 2026
- 96–86 v Carlton Blues3 Apr 2026
- 66–92 v Brisbane Lions11 Apr 2026
- 130–55 v Richmond Tigers19 Apr 2026
- 110–100 v Fremantle Dockers14 Mar 2026
- 68–60 v Adelaide Crows26 Mar 2026
- 91–92 @ Hawthorn Hawks6 Apr 2026
- 122–76 v West Coast Eagles12 Apr 2026
- 131–56 v Western Bulldogs17 Apr 2026
North Melbourne Kangaroos
- Harry Sheezel
125.2 SC avg · 31.3 disposals · 0.6 goals · 6.8 marks (20 games)
- Tristan Xerri
112.4 SC avg · 17.6 disposals · 0.4 goals · 3.0 marks (16 games)
- Luke Davies-Uniacke
106.9 SC avg · 25.0 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.9 marks (20 games)
- Luke Parker
102.9 SC avg · 25.5 disposals · 0.1 goals · 6.8 marks (20 games)
Geelong Cats
- Bailey Smith
117.4 SC avg · 31.5 disposals · 0.4 goals · 4.0 marks (19 games)
- Max Holmes
114.8 SC avg · 28.3 disposals · 0.2 goals · 4.9 marks (18 games)
- Tom Stewart
94.2 SC avg · 21.0 disposals · 0.1 goals · 5.1 marks (18 games)
- Oliver Dempsey
83.7 SC avg · 18.7 disposals · 1.2 goals · 5.1 marks (20 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 23 match previews page, with deeper club data on the North Melbourne Kangaroos and Geelong Cats team hubs.