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St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Match Analysis — AFL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
St Kilda Saints by 12-23
Model score: St Kilda Saints 96 — 84 Carlton Blues
Total points: the model's 180-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 3 meetings it is St Kilda Saints 2, Carlton Blues 1, averaging 155.3 total points per game. St Kilda Saints have won 2 of their last 5. Carlton Blues have won 1 of their last 5.
Last 3 meetings: St Kilda Saints 2, Carlton Blues 1 — averaging 155.3 total points per game.
- 107 — 120 @ Melbourne Demons15 Mar 2026
- 78 — 74 @ GWS Giants21 Mar 2026
- 80 — 113 v Brisbane Lions28 Mar 2026
- 81 — 67 @ Port Adelaide Power12 Apr 2026
- 102 — 103 @ Adelaide Crows18 Apr 2026
- 75 — 71 v Richmond Tigers12 Mar 2026
- 77 — 100 v Melbourne Demons29 Mar 2026
- 86 — 96 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos3 Apr 2026
- 86 — 114 @ Adelaide Crows9 Apr 2026
- 83 — 88 v Collingwood Magpies16 Apr 2026
St Kilda Saints
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
118.1 SC avg · 31.1 disposals · 1.1 goals · 3.2 marks (15 games)
- Jack Sinclair
105.9 SC avg · 27.3 disposals · 0.1 goals · 6.3 marks (15 games)
- Callum Wilkie
102.4 SC avg · 22.9 disposals · 0.0 goals · 9.7 marks (19 games)
- Bradley Hill
92.6 SC avg · 25.6 disposals · 0.5 goals · 6.8 marks (19 games)
Carlton Blues
- Sam Walsh
100.9 SC avg · 28.3 disposals · 0.3 goals · 4.2 marks (18 games)
- Patrick Cripps
100.3 SC avg · 27.2 disposals · 0.7 goals · 2.7 marks (18 games)
- George Hewett
95.7 SC avg · 22.1 disposals · 0.8 goals · 3.5 marks (15 games)
- Jagga Smith
87.8 SC avg · 24.4 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.2 marks (18 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members — to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the St Kilda Saints and Carlton Blues team hubs.