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Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Blues Prediction, Tips & Preview - AFL Round 23 2026
Who wins Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Blues? Our form-based model leans Western Bulldogs by 12-23. Read the full preview below.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Western Bulldogs by 12-23
Model score: Western Bulldogs 96–81 Carlton Blues
Total points: the model's 176-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 3 meetings it is Western Bulldogs 2, Carlton Blues 1, averaging 160 total points per game. Western Bulldogs have won 3 of their last 5. Carlton Blues have won 1 of their last 5.
Last 3 meetings: Western Bulldogs 2, Carlton Blues 1, averaging 160 total points per game.
- 134–53 v GWS Giants14 Mar 2026
- 94–88 @ Adelaide Crows20 Mar 2026
- 99–65 v Essendon Bombers5 Apr 2026
- 64–104 @ Hawthorn Hawks11 Apr 2026
- 56–131 @ Geelong Cats17 Apr 2026
- 75–71 v Richmond Tigers12 Mar 2026
- 77–100 v Melbourne Demons29 Mar 2026
- 86–96 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos3 Apr 2026
- 86–114 @ Adelaide Crows9 Apr 2026
- 83–88 v Collingwood Magpies16 Apr 2026
Western Bulldogs
- Marcus Bontempelli
117.8 SC avg · 26.4 disposals · 1.4 goals · 3.8 marks (20 games)
- Ed Richards
108.4 SC avg · 25.4 disposals · 0.8 goals · 3.9 marks (19 games)
- Bailey Dale
103.4 SC avg · 26.9 disposals · 0.1 goals · 4.6 marks (17 games)
- Tim English
102.6 SC avg · 14.9 disposals · 0.4 goals · 4.9 marks (14 games)
Carlton Blues
- Sam Walsh
99.7 SC avg · 28.2 disposals · 0.3 goals · 4.1 marks (19 games)
- George Hewett
98.9 SC avg · 22.8 disposals · 0.8 goals · 4.0 marks (16 games)
- Patrick Cripps
98.5 SC avg · 26.7 disposals · 0.7 goals · 2.6 marks (19 games)
- Jagga Smith
89.8 SC avg · 24.6 disposals · 0.4 goals · 3.2 marks (19 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 23 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Western Bulldogs and Carlton Blues team hubs.