AFL Predictions

How these predictions work

For each side we average points scored and conceded across their recent completed games, then match attack against defence: a club's expected score is the midpoint of its attack average and the opponent's defence average, with a fixed 8-point home-ground adjustment split across the two sides. The expected total is compared against a typical AFL game (~176 combined points) for the total-points lean. When the expected margin is under four points we call it line-ball rather than forcing a pick, and when either side has fewer than 3 completed games we make no call at all. Every number comes from real results: a data lean, not a certainty, and team news can move it.

AFL predictions: common questions

What are the AFL this week predictions?

The Stats Lab publishes a free, data-led tip for every AFL this week game (predicted winner, margin band and total-points lean) at thestatslab.app/afl/predictions. Each call is generated from a transparent form-based model: no ratings, no gut feel, every number from real completed results. Predictions refresh automatically each hour as new results come in.

How does The Stats Lab predict AFL matches?

For each side we average points scored and conceded across their recent completed games, then match attack against defence: a club's expected score is the midpoint of its attack average and the opponent's defence average, with a fixed home-ground adjustment split evenly across both sides. The expected total is then compared against a typical AFL game (~176 combined points) to produce a total-points lean. When the expected margin falls below four points the model calls it line-ball rather than forcing a pick, and when either side has fewer than 3 completed games no call is made at all.

Who should I captain in AFL SuperCoach this round?

DVP (Defence vs Position) and player projection tools on The Stats Lab help you identify captaincy options by finding players in strong form who face teams that concede heavily to their position. Use the AFL DVP tool at thestatslab.app/afl/dvp and the player projections dashboard (premium) to narrow your shortlist before lockout.

What is DVP in AFL?

DVP stands for Defence vs Position. It measures how many points each AFL team concedes per game to players in each position: forward, midfield, ruck, and defender. A high DVP against a position means teams give up more points there than average, making those opposition players more attractive in SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy. The Stats Lab DVP tool at thestatslab.app/afl/dvp shows the current season breakdown by round.

Where can I find AFL player projections?

AFL player stats and season averages are at thestatslab.app/afl/players, free for all users. Stats Lab members unlock projected scores for every player each round, built from form and matchup data. Start a 7-day free trial at thestatslab.app/signup.