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Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Preview - AFLW Round 1 2026
A free, data-led AFLW preview built from real results: head-to-head history, recent form and the players to watch on each side.
Our prediction: Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions by 13-24
Model score: Essendon Bombers 30 to 45 Brisbane Lions
Total points: the model's 75-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFLW game (~80 combined points).
How this works: the model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, up to the end of 2025, matches attack against defence, and adds a 2-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: list changes, injuries and team news all move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 1 meetings it is Essendon Bombers 0, Brisbane Lions 1, averaging 70 combined points per game. Essendon Bombers won 1 of their last 5 on record. Brisbane Lions won 4 of their last 5.
Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Essendon Bombers 0, Brisbane Lions 1, averaging 70 combined points per game.
Form guide: last 5 completed games
Most recent results on record, up to the end of 2025.
- 14 to 11 @ Sydney Swans1 Nov 2025
- 26 to 56 v Hawthorn Hawks25 Oct 2025
- 16 to 54 v Brisbane Lions19 Oct 2025
- 10 to 67 @ Western Bulldogs10 Oct 2025
- 22 to 36 @ Melbourne Demons3 Oct 2025
- 16 to 56 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos29 Nov 2025
- 67 to 32 v Carlton Blues22 Nov 2025
- 56 to 43 @ Melbourne Demons9 Nov 2025
- 52 to 32 @ Collingwood Magpies2 Nov 2025
- 45 to 36 v Melbourne Demons25 Oct 2025
Players to watch: 2025 averages
Ranked on 2025 GDS fantasy average. Squads change between seasons, so treat this as a guide to who carried each club last time out.
Essendon Bombers
- Georgia Nanscawen
116.8 GDS avg · 23.3 disposals · 0.0 goals · 2.2 marks · 10.1 tackles (12 games)
- Madison Prespakis
101.1 GDS avg · 23.5 disposals · 0.2 goals · 2.9 marks · 4.2 tackles (11 games)
- Bonnie Toogood
86.1 GDS avg · 15.6 disposals · 0.5 goals · 4.4 marks · 3.6 tackles (10 games)
- Stephanie Wales
85.9 GDS avg · 12.8 disposals · 0.0 goals · 1.4 marks · 5.6 tackles (9 games)
Brisbane Lions
- Alexandra Anderson
102.3 GDS avg · 24.5 disposals · 0.3 goals · 2.6 marks · 4.7 tackles (15 games)
- Isabel Dawes
92.9 GDS avg · 20.3 disposals · 0.0 goals · 2.4 marks · 5.9 tackles (15 games)
- Courtney Hodder
86.8 GDS avg · 15.4 disposals · 1.0 goals · 1.9 marks · 6.2 tackles (14 games)
- Sophie Conway
81.7 GDS avg · 16.8 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.1 marks · 3.8 tackles (15 games)
AFLW Round 1 2026 preview questions
Who will win Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions?
Our form model favours Brisbane Lions by 13-24 points from 2025 season results, from a model score of Essendon Bombers 30 to 45 Brisbane Lions.
What is the Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions prediction for AFLW Round 1 2026?
Our form model favours Brisbane Lions by 13-24 points from 2025 season results, from a model score of Essendon Bombers 30 to 45 Brisbane Lions. The model expects about 75 combined points, in line with a typical AFLW game (around 80). It averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games and adds a small home-ground adjustment.
When and where is Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions?
Essendon Bombers host Brisbane Lions in AFLW Round 1, 2026 on Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm at Windy Hill. Times are local to the venue.
What is the Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions head-to-head record?
Across their last 1 meetings in 2025 it is Essendon Bombers 0, Brisbane Lions 1. Those games averaged 70 combined points.
Which players should I watch in Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions?
On 2025 fantasy averages, Georgia Nanscawen for Essendon Bombers and Alexandra Anderson for Brisbane Lions. The preview lists the top four per club with disposals, goals, marks and tackles per game, and every name links to that player's full stats page.
Is this Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions preview free?
Yes. The form lean, head-to-head record and player averages for Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions are free and need no account. Stats Lab members get the deeper fantasy and matchup analysis tools on top.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the AFLW match previews page, with deeper club data on the Essendon Bombers and Brisbane Lions hubs, and full season stats for every player on the AFLW players page.