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Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Preview - AFLW Round 1 2026
A free, data-led AFLW preview built from real results: head-to-head history, recent form and the players to watch on each side.
Our prediction: Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons
Melbourne Demons by 1-12
Model score: Hawthorn Hawks 42 to 53 Melbourne Demons
Total points: the model's 95-point expected total leans higher-scoring than a typical AFLW game (~80 combined points).
How this works: the model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, up to the end of 2025, matches attack against defence, and adds a 2-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: list changes, injuries and team news all move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 2 meetings it is Hawthorn Hawks 1, Melbourne Demons 1, averaging 60.5 combined points per game. Hawthorn Hawks won 1 of their last 5 on record. Melbourne Demons won 2 of their last 5.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hawthorn Hawks 1, Melbourne Demons 1, averaging 60.5 combined points per game.
Form guide: last 5 completed games
Most recent results on record, up to the end of 2025.
- 33 to 79 v Carlton Blues15 Nov 2025
- 3 to 42 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos7 Nov 2025
- 18 to 67 v North Melbourne Kangaroos31 Oct 2025
- 56 to 26 @ Essendon Bombers25 Oct 2025
- 59 to 94 @ Port Adelaide Power17 Oct 2025
- 36 to 46 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos22 Nov 2025
- 60 to 49 v Adelaide Crows15 Nov 2025
- 43 to 56 v Brisbane Lions9 Nov 2025
- 59 to 45 @ Geelong Cats1 Nov 2025
- 36 to 45 @ Brisbane Lions25 Oct 2025
Players to watch: 2025 averages
Ranked on 2025 GDS fantasy average. Squads change between seasons, so treat this as a guide to who carried each club last time out.
Hawthorn Hawks
- Lucy Wales
110.6 GDS avg · 18.3 disposals · 0.0 goals · 2.8 marks · 5.9 tackles (9 games)
- Tilly Lucas-Rodd
99.6 GDS avg · 21.4 disposals · 0.0 goals · 3.6 marks · 3.9 tackles (14 games)
- Eliza West
86.9 GDS avg · 22.6 disposals · 0.1 goals · 1.3 marks · 5.6 tackles (14 games)
- Emily Bates
82.5 GDS avg · 21.5 disposals · 0.1 goals · 1.5 marks · 5.6 tackles (8 games)
Melbourne Demons
- Kate Hore
114.0 GDS avg · 21.3 disposals · 1.6 goals · 3.9 marks · 5.3 tackles (15 games)
- Tyla Hanks
107.9 GDS avg · 23.0 disposals · 0.3 goals · 2.1 marks · 6.9 tackles (15 games)
- Elizabeth McNamara
101.4 GDS avg · 22.1 disposals · 0.1 goals · 3.4 marks · 4.3 tackles (15 games)
- Maeve Chaplin
89.8 GDS avg · 18.2 disposals · 0.1 goals · 3.5 marks · 4.0 tackles (13 games)
AFLW Round 1 2026 preview questions
Who will win Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons?
Our form model favours Melbourne Demons by 1-12 points from 2025 season results, from a model score of Hawthorn Hawks 42 to 53 Melbourne Demons.
What is the Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons prediction for AFLW Round 1 2026?
Our form model favours Melbourne Demons by 1-12 points from 2025 season results, from a model score of Hawthorn Hawks 42 to 53 Melbourne Demons. The model expects about 95 combined points, higher-scoring than a typical AFLW game (around 80). It averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games and adds a small home-ground adjustment.
When and where is Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons?
Hawthorn Hawks host Melbourne Demons in AFLW Round 1, 2026 on Thursday 13 Aug 2026, 7:15pm at Ikon Park. Times are local to the venue.
What is the Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons head-to-head record?
Across their last 2 meetings between 2023 and 2024 it is Hawthorn Hawks 1, Melbourne Demons 1. Those games averaged 60.5 combined points.
Which players should I watch in Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons?
On 2025 fantasy averages, Lucy Wales for Hawthorn Hawks and Kate Hore for Melbourne Demons. The preview lists the top four per club with disposals, goals, marks and tackles per game, and every name links to that player's full stats page.
Is this Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons preview free?
Yes. The form lean, head-to-head record and player averages for Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons are free and need no account. Stats Lab members get the deeper fantasy and matchup analysis tools on top.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the AFLW match previews page, with deeper club data on the Hawthorn Hawks and Melbourne Demons hubs, and full season stats for every player on the AFLW players page.