Season Tracker
Through 16 rounds, we're sitting at +59.35 units for the season, with an overall record of 82-42 (66.13%). Round 16 banked another +3.12 from five winners across seven Best Bets. All three overs cashed, the Tigers and Dolphins, the Warriors and Cowboys, and the Storm and Raiders all sailing past their totals, and both half-time spread plays landed with the Panthers and Dragons. The two that hurt were the Sea Eagles at half-time, who led only 8-6 before losing outright to the Bulldogs, and the Roosters to win by 1 to 10, who blew the game open and won by 19.
The Panthers have pulled clear at the top on 12-2, the Dragons are anchored to the bottom on 1-13, and the middle of the ladder is a logjam where two wins covers about eight teams. The Sharks have the bye this week. We get the round underway on Thursday night at CommBank Stadium.
Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
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Both these teams arrive having won just two of their last five, and the ladder tells the story of a tight contest. The Rabbitohs are clinging to seventh, just inside the eight, while the Eels sit back in fourteenth. The seven-place gap looks wide, but only two wins separate them. If Parramatta can sneak this one at home, they're right back in the mix for a late run at the top eight. I don't think they end up a finals side, but they've still got something to play for, and that matters at this stage of the year.
Souths have owned this fixture lately, leading the last 10 meetings 9-1. The catch for backers is that the favourite has covered only five of those 10, and the points have tended to flow, with the average sitting around 48 and six of the last 10 going over. The line this week is Rabbitohs -5.5 with the total at 48.5.
The big team news is Mitchell Moses returning for the Eels, his first game since round 11. That lifts both the attacking shape and the kicking game, which Parramatta have sorely missed. He can drift in defence at times, so I'd expect Souths to run their edge players at him early. On the other side, the Rabbitohs are without Latrell Mitchell, who also hasn't played since round 11, though their forward pack still carries plenty of size through Tatola, Koloamatangi, Murray and Fifita.
On the spread, I'm staying away. The Eels have been feisty in this run, covering four of their last five, and their two most recent losses came by just six and two points. Souths have their own reasons to win, keen to hold their place inside a tightly packed eight, but with Moses back and a home crowd behind them, Parramatta are live for the upset. I lean the Eels with the points, but it's no confidence play and no bet on the line.
The total is where I land. Both sides have leant under lately, each going under in four of their last five, and the Eels are under in eight of their 14 on the season. The night numbers back the Souths end of it: they've gone under in four of their six night games this year, averaging just 45 total points when the lights are on. To be straight about it, the Eels pull the other way after dark, over in three of their five, so this is not a one-way signal. CommBank has only staged two night games this season for a one-all split, the most recent a low-scoring 27-point Eels win. With a tight, low-scoring arm-wrestle shaping, one rusty playmaker returning and the other side missing their match-winner, the under is still the part of this game I like most. The honest caveat is that this fixture leans over historically and Thursday night games are running at 67% overs this season, which is why it stays a single unit rather than anything bigger.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)
That's the opener sorted. The rest of my picks for the round, a Best Bet on all games, are up now for premium members. Come join us if you'd like the full card.