After two games in Vegas to kick the season off, the action shifts back home for the rest of Round 1. Six games, plenty of fresh halves combinations, and a market that's still feeling its way through the off-season movement. Here's how I'm reading each one.
Storm vs Eels
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Melbourne have owned this fixture lately, winning six straight against the Eels. The Storm sit at -6.5 and the total is 44.5.
The historical data says back Melbourne. The Storm won by more than 6.5 in 42% of their 2025 games and would have covered -6.5 in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings. On totals, 4 of the last 5 H2H games went over 44.5, with four of those meetings producing 62, 64, 46 and 74 points respectively.
But this game is genuinely hard to read.
Craig Bellamy's teams are usually well prepared for Round 1, and having Harry Grant, Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes available gives Melbourne a clear edge through the spine. The one concern is the backline. With Ryan Papenhuyzen and Xavier Coates unavailable, there are new combinations out wide that could take time to click.
Parramatta finished last season well and their forward pack can compete through the middle. Jonah Pezet, who spent time in the Storm system, now partners Mitchell Moses. Even with that, Melbourne hold the edge in experience and cohesion in the key playmaking positions. The Eels also looked good in the pre-season.
I think the Eels will be up for this one. There's a bit of extra fire after the Lomax saga, and a healthier Parramatta side looks very different. With Melbourne missing key outside backs and the Eels coming in with a point to prove, I lean towards a tighter, lower scoring game than the market is pricing.
Both picks here are narrative based and against what the numbers are telling me, which is why I'm only going small on the total.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)Warriors vs Roosters
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The Roosters have owned this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 meetings. They're -5.5 here with a total of 39.5.
The H2H scoring history is wild. The average total across the last seven meetings is just 32.9 points. The most recent meeting in Round 3 last year finished 14-6, just 20 total points. The under has hit in 5 of 7 H2H games and only one of the last five meetings cleared 39.5.
Despite that, I'm going the other way on the total.
The Roosters had plenty of attacking firepower in 2025, averaging 26.5 points per game and going over 39.5 in 20 of their 25 matches (80%). Adding Daly Cherry-Evans alongside Sam Walker should open Walker's game up, and Mark Nawaqanitawase is a genuine strike weapon out wide.
The Warriors at home are always tough and I generally don't love going against them as a home underdog, but the Roosters have more firepower across the park. The Warriors stayed within 5.5 or won outright in 71% of their 2025 games, which is a strong number, but they're meeting a Roosters team I think has lifted in the off-season.
On the total, the data clearly says under. Warriors home games over the past five years have gone under 61% of the time. But the Roosters can score in a hurry and Mt Smart is a fast track. If this game opens up, it could open up quickly.
Best Bet: Over 39.5 Total Points $1.90 (1.5 units)Broncos vs Panthers
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A replay of last year's preliminary final and one of the marquee games of the round. The Broncos are -2.5 at home with a total of 41.5.
The Panthers have owned this fixture. Nine wins from the last 11 meetings. The Broncos have managed just two wins in that stretch (13-12 in Round 2 2023 and 16-14 in the preliminary final last year). Even Brisbane's 16-14 home win wouldn't have covered this line. The Broncos are 0 for 5 against -2.5 in the last five H2H games.
The under has been the story. The H2H average total across the 11 games with spread data is 34.6 points. The under has hit in 8 of 11 (73%).
Venue trends are mixed. Suncorp games trend over with 63% clearing the total across the last five seasons, but Panthers away games lean the other way with only 43% going over in the same period.
For the spread, I don't have a strong feel. The history clearly favours Penrith, but the Broncos are the defending premiers and Suncorp is a tough place to play. I lean Brisbane at home but it's a no bet.
The total is where I'm comfortable. Both teams have attacking talent but these games are always tight, physical contests. Only 3 of the last 11 meetings have gone over this number, and the H2H scoring profile suggests another grind. There's also around a 50% chance of rain which only strengthens the case.
Best Bet: Under 41.5 Total Points $1.90 (2 units)Sharks vs Titans
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The Sharks have owned this fixture, winning 8 of the last 9. The only Titans win came in Round 18 2024. The most recent meeting was a 54-22 Sharks demolition.
Cronulla are -11.5 at home with a total of 48.5. That spread looks chunky on the surface, but the recent H2H margins back it. The Sharks would have covered -11.5 in 3 of the last 5 H2H games with winning margins of 30, 44 and 32.
Cronulla have also been one of the best home teams against the spread, going 34-19 ATS at home over the past five seasons (64%). They were 11-2 at home in 2025 and averaged 27.5 points scored against just 18.6 conceded in those games. That defensive home record matters here.
The Titans showed some promising signs in pre-season, but I don't put weight on trial form. Jayden Campbell being out is also a big loss. The Sharks have clear advantages through the middle and in the spine, with Nicho Hynes and Addin Fonua-Blake leading the way.
On the total, the data is interesting. The H2H average is 46.1 across the last 9 meetings and the under has hit in 5 of 9. Sharks home games also trend under (57% over the past five seasons). There's around a 50% chance of rain which makes the total even trickier. Under normal conditions I'd lean over given the Titans' leaky defence (30.0 points conceded per game in 2025), but the weather risk keeps me off it. If it does rain, the Sharks are also the side better suited to those conditions.
With the spread sitting under two converted tries, I'm comfortable backing Cronulla at home.
Best Bet: Sharks -11.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)Sea Eagles vs Raiders
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Canberra come in as the away favourite at -1.5 despite Manly winning 6 of the last 10 H2H meetings. The total is 43.5.
Both sides have changes in the halves. Jamal Fogarty has moved from the Raiders to Manly, while Canberra hand the keys to Ethan Sanders. That adds some early-season uncertainty for both clubs.
On paper I slightly prefer the Raiders pack, while Manly probably have the stronger backline. Manly's defence wasn't great last season and the Raiders showed they could score points when things clicked.
Even so, I lean Manly at home. Brookvale is a different proposition. Manly won 8 of their 12 home games last season and if you're backing them, that's usually the spot to do it. But with so much uncertainty in the halves combinations on both sides, this is a no bet on the line.
The total is where I'm interested. The H2H average across the last 5 meetings is 53.6, ten points clear of this week's line. Four of the last five total H2H games have gone over 43.5. Manly scored well at home last season and their defence leaked points at times, while the Raiders were also involved in some higher scoring games.
I'm not high on either side as title contenders, but the recent scoring trends in this fixture suggest points should be available.
Best Bet: Over 43.5 Total Points $1.90 (1.5 units)Dolphins vs Rabbitohs
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A small sample to work with here, but the trends are interesting. The Dolphins are -1.5 at Suncorp with a total of 43.5.
Only four H2H games between these sides since the Dolphins entered the competition, and they've split 2-2. One clear pattern though, the favourite has covered every single time and the home side has won all but the very first meeting between these clubs. Only once has the total landed below 50 points in this fixture.
The Dolphins are a strong home side. They've gone 16-13 ATS at home over the past five seasons (55%) and averaged a huge 32.8 points per game at home in 2025. The Rabbitohs struggled badly on the road last year, going 3-9 away while averaging just 14.8 points scored and conceding 31.6.
Based on that, the -1.5 line feels very small. With the game in Queensland and the Dolphins generally strong at home, I lean their way on the line, but it's a no bet given the small H2H sample and the uncertainty around Souths' new look.
The total is the play. Dolphins home games went over in 8 of 12 last season and averaged a combined total of 58 points. Historically this matchup has produced points too, with only one of the four meetings finishing below 50.
There's around a 70% chance of showers which normally pushes me towards the under, but I still think this line is too low. The Rabbitohs' 2025 numbers were heavily impacted by injuries and they should look very different with Murray, Walker and Mitchell back, plus the addition of Fifita. With both sides closer to full strength, this game has points in it.
Best Bet: Over 43.5 Total Points $1.90 (1.5 units)