NRL Round 10 2026 Preview & Tips

Season Tracker

Through nine rounds, we're sitting at +27.80 units for the season. Round 9 added +2.70 with five wins from eight Best Bets. The Roosters cover, the Knights vs Rabbitohs 80-point shootout going over, and the Dolphins finally getting up against the Storm were the highlights. The Titans being beaten at home by the Raiders and the Panthers scraping past Manly by just two points were the painful misses.

The Storm now have just two wins, the Dragons are still searching for one, and the Panthers continue to grind out results without their usual dominance. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.

Dolphins vs Bulldogs

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The Bulldogs lead this fixture 2-1 since the Dolphins entered the competition, with the under hitting in 2 of those 3 meetings and an average total of 45.7 points. Dolphins are -6.5 here with a total of 50.5.

The Dolphins have been involved in low scoring games this season, going under in six of eight, largely due to their inconsistent attack. The Bulldogs have been even worse offensively, averaging just 18.1 points per game, with five of eight games going under. Both teams are coming in with poor recent form, but the Dolphins snapped their losing streak with a strong defensive win over the Storm in Round 9.

There are minimal changes on paper, although the Dolphins have named Marshall-King and Nikorima on the bench which gives them a bit more depth.

I like the Dolphins here. Neither side is particularly trustworthy, but the Dolphins have looked like the better team in recent weeks and, importantly, they have a far more dangerous attack. They can score from anywhere, while the Bulldogs continue to struggle to generate points. The Bulldogs' recent away record has been terrible, covering just 1 of their last 10 on the road.

On the total, I lean under. All the data points in that direction with both teams trending under and the Bulldogs attack being a major limitation. The only hesitation is that the Dolphins feel close to putting it all together offensively, and if they do, they could threaten this number on their own.

Roosters vs Titans

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The Roosters have dominated this fixture, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. The over has hit in 6 of those 9 games, and the average total sits at 52.2 points, just below this week's number. Roosters are -18.5 with a total of 55.5.

The Roosters have been one of the form teams of the competition, sitting 6-2 ATS with seven of eight games going over. They're averaging over 31 points per game and have not scored less than 33 in their last five. The Titans, on the other hand, have struggled for consistency, going under in six of eight games and averaging under 20 points per game.

There are a few changes, with Collins and Nawaqanitawase out for the Roosters which is a slight downgrade. The Titans are rolling out a new look spine with Pascoe, Harrison and Bai, which adds uncertainty. Overall, the net effect still favours the Roosters given their cohesion and current form.

I like the Roosters here. The number is big, but they have covered their last five straight and won each of those games by 12+ points. They are playing with confidence and their attack is clicking. The Titans look like a side still figuring things out, and that is a tough spot against a team in this kind of form.

On the total, I like the over. The Roosters are flying offensively and could push towards this number themselves. With conditions expected to suit a fast paced game, it is hard to see the Titans holding them under 40, and if they can contribute even modestly, this should clear the total.

Cowboys vs Eels

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The Eels lead this fixture 6-4 over the last 10 meetings. The under has hit in 6 of those games, with an average total of just 41.8, well below this week's number. Cowboys are -10.5 with a total of 55.5.

The Cowboys have been inconsistent all season but are 6-3 ATS and have won four of their last five. The Eels are trending the opposite way, sitting 3-6 and conceding 35 points per game. Their defensive issues continue to drive totals up, with five of nine games going over.

There are minimal lineup changes this week, but the one to note is a new right edge combination for the Eels with Samrani and Kelly. That could be an area the Cowboys target, which adds to their attacking upside.

I lean Cowboys here. They have been hard to trust week to week, but they are clearly the better side in current form, while the Eels have lost five of the last six and are not showing signs of improvement. At home, this sets up as a good spot for North Queensland, even if the number feels a touch high given the H2H history.

On the total, I lean over. The Eels defence continues to leak points and that alone can push games towards high totals. That said, this fixture has historically stayed well under this number, and the Cowboys have been alternating overs and unders in recent weeks, which makes it difficult to fully trust.

Dragons vs Knights

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The Dragons lead this fixture 6-4 over the last 10 meetings. The under has hit in 7 of those 10 games, with an average total of just 40.4 points. Knights are -9.5 with a total of 53.5.

The Dragons remain winless through eight rounds, but they come into this game off a bye and welcome back key players in Egan and Gutherson. Newcastle have exceeded expectations this season, sitting 5-4 and coming off a wild 42-38 win over the Rabbitohs. Their games have become high scoring shootouts with seven of nine going over.

I like the Dragons +9.5. On the surface it might not look like the right side, but the Dragons are going to win games at some stage and this feels like a strong spot for improvement. They have now had over two weeks under Dean Young, key players return from injury, and this is the forward pack many have been waiting to see all season.

The Reed and Atkinson combination is still developing, but behind this pack they should have opportunities. The biggest concern remains their edge defence, though I expect improvement after the disaster against the Roosters on ANZAC Day.

The Knights deserve credit for what they have done this season and their backline is one of the most dangerous on paper in the NRL, but I think the Dragons hold the edge through the middle. Getting +9.5 at home, off a bye, with key reinforcements back, feels too much.

On the total, I lean under. The Dragons have consistently been an under team, while the Knights have trended over, but if the Dragons are to cover the 9.5 spread it likely comes through a much improved defensive performance. The last five meetings between these clubs have not gone higher than 44 total points, which also points towards a lower scoring game.

Rabbitohs vs Sharks

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The Sharks lead this fixture 7-3 over the last 10 meetings. The average total across those games is only 42.1 points, although both teams have been involved in far higher scoring games this season. Rabbitohs are -3.5 with a total of 53.5.

The Rabbitohs and Sharks both come into this matchup with identical 4-4 ATS records and both averaging 56.5 total match points per game in 2026. The Rabbitohs are averaging 32.5 points per game, while the Sharks attack exploded last week with a 52-10 win over the Tigers.

There are no major changes for either side, with the Rabbitohs welcoming back Jye Gray. Conditions are expected to be good which should suit both attacking styles.

This feels like a genuine coin flip. The recent H2H history favours the Sharks, but I lean slightly towards the Rabbitohs because I think they have looked marginally better this season overall. There is not much between these teams though and it wouldn't surprise me whichever way it goes.

On the total, I lean under. Even though both teams have been involved in high scoring games recently, this feels like the type of matchup that goes down to the wire. Both sides can have poor defensive moments, but they are also capable of strong defensive performances when needed.

Latrell Mitchell's form has been outstanding and he is creating so much down the Rabbitohs left edge, but his goal kicking has been inconsistent which could leave points behind. This feels like a game to sit back and enjoy without having too much riding on it.

Sea Eagles vs Broncos

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The Broncos lead this fixture 6-4 over the last 10 meetings. The under has hit in 6 of those games, with an average total of just 43.5 points. Sea Eagles are -2.5 with a total of 51.5.

The Sea Eagles have looked a completely different side under new coach Kieran Foran, winning four of their last five with the only loss coming against the ladder leading Panthers. Brisbane continue to battle through injuries and suspensions but have remained competitive, particularly away from home where they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10.

I lean towards the Sea Eagles. A Broncos upset would not surprise me, especially given how resilient they have been while undermanned, but with key players still missing, Manly at home is the only way I can go. Their form under Foran has been impressive and they continue to look more settled each week.

On the total, I like the under. Over the last month, these teams have combined to go under the total in six of eight games. The spread sitting at just 2.5 also points towards a close contest, which adds value to the under in my opinion. The last four meetings between these clubs have all gone under this number and both teams have consistently trended that way recently.

Storm vs Wests Tigers

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The Storm have dominated this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings. The average total across those games is 48.3 points, with totals split evenly at 5 overs and 5 unders. Storm are -5.5 with a total of 54.5.

The Storm enter this game in terrible form at 2-7 and looking nothing like the side we are used to seeing. The Tigers on the other hand have exceeded expectations this season despite last week's heavy loss to the Sharks. That result got away from them quickly after Adam Doueihi left the game early and his absence is a major concern again this week.

I like the Storm here. Even though Melbourne have been poor this season, this feels like a good bounce back spot for them at home. The Tigers losing Doueihi hurts their attack significantly and this fixture has historically been a nightmare matchup for them in Melbourne.

This feels like a turning point game for both clubs. Will the Storm finally respond or will the Tigers begin to slide after such a promising start to the season? Sunday afternoon at AAMI Park feels like the right spot for Melbourne to produce a performance.

On the total, I lean under. This is a massive number when compared to the form both teams have shown recently. Melbourne have only scored 25+ points once this season and Doueihi being out hurts the Tigers attack considerably. The only thing stopping this from becoming a stronger play is the possibility of the Storm finally clicking in attack in good conditions.

Raiders vs Panthers

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The Panthers lead this fixture 6-4 over the last 10 meetings, with the average total sitting at 45.6 points and over and under split 5-5. Panthers are -10.5 with a total of 51.5.

The Panthers remain the benchmark of the competition at 8-1, but despite their dominance they have only won by more than 3 points once in their last four games. Canberra on the other hand surprised me last week with how well they performed despite being undermanned, and this week they welcome back Ethan Strange and Hudson Young which is a big boost.

I lean towards the Raiders. The Panthers are still clearly the better team overall, but taking double digit points with Canberra at home feels like the right side. The last two meetings between these clubs have both been decided by four points with the Raiders winning both, and they always seem to lift for this matchup.

The Raiders have shown they can compete physically with Penrith and with key players returning this week, I think they keep this one close again.

On the total, I lean under. The Raiders have gone under in four of their last five games and the Panthers have only scored more than 24 points once in their last four matches. I'm expecting another tight and physical contest between these sides. Penrith's defence continues to be elite and if Canberra are going to cover the spread, it likely comes through slowing this game down and turning it into a grind.