NRL Round 11 2026 Preview & Tips

Season Tracker

Through ten rounds, we're sitting at +33.35 units for the season with an overall record of 51-29 from 80 Best Bets (63.75%). Round 10 added +5.55 with 6 wins from 8 Best Bets. The Storm covering -7.5 over the Tigers, the Dolphins covering -6.5 against the Bulldogs in a 44-12 demolition, and the Sea Eagles vs Broncos under at 36 points were the highlights, while the Roosters laying -18.5 only winning by 16 and the Dragons +9.5 getting blown out 44-10 by the Knights were the painful misses.

It's Magic Round. All eight games at Suncorp Stadium with the Raiders on the bye. The neutral venue removes the home crowd edge from every matchup, the Panthers continue to look like the only true premiership lock, and the Storm finally broke a seven-game losing streak last week. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.

Sharks vs Bulldogs

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The Sharks have had the edge in this fixture, leading the H2H 7-3 over the last 10 meetings. The favourite has only covered 4 of those 10 (40%) and the under has been the dominant theme, hitting in 7 of 10 with an average total of just 36.5 points. The Sharks are -5.5 here with a total of 51.5.

Recent meetings have been mixed. The Sharks have had the better of it lately, with several lopsided wins at home, but the Bulldogs have managed to sneak the odd tight result. Cronulla have won the last two comfortably.

The Sharks are 4-5 to start the year but have plenty of attacking weapons and welcome back Ramien and Mulitalo from injury, both significant inclusions. The Bulldogs are 3-6 and trending the wrong way, losing four straight and conceding 38, 32, 28 and 44 in those games. King returning to the pack helps but the Sharks' inclusions tilt the balance more.

I like the Sharks here. The Bulldogs have scored 20+ in just two of nine games this season and haven't cracked that mark in their last four. The Sharks only managed 12 last week against the Rabbitohs, but with Ramien and Mulitalo back and Canterbury averaging 35 points conceded across their last four games, -5.5 looks short. If the Sharks get to 26 or 28, the Bulldogs simply don't have the firepower to keep up.

On the total, I lean under. The Bulldogs' inability to score consistently caps this game's ceiling, and the H2H profile heavily backs the under (7 of 10 going under with an average of 36.5). But with the spread sitting under a converted try, that's the play I'm more confident in.

Rabbitohs vs Dolphins

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A small sample matchup with just five meetings since the Dolphins entered the competition. The Rabbitohs lead the H2H 3-2 and the favourite has covered 3 of 5 (60%). The over has been the dominant theme, hitting in 4 of 5 with an average total of 58.4 points, including a 40-30 Rabbitohs win in Round 1 this year. The Dolphins are -2.5 here with a total of 54.5.

Both teams come in with minimal lineup changes. Latrell Mitchell returns from a back injury after missing last week, but on a short turnaround it's hard to imagine he's at his dominant best. Beyond that there's nothing major to flag on either side.

I'm higher on the Rabbitohs overall this season, but the Dolphins are the team gaining momentum. Since their Round 6 bye they've won 2 of 4, but the two losses were by 1 and 2 points to the Panthers and Warriors, and they've followed those up with back-to-back comfortable wins. That's a team that has been competitive in every game and is now finishing them off.

I like the Dolphins here. They've been the better side over the past four weeks and Latrell coming back off a back injury on a short turnaround is unlikely to lift the Rabbitohs to their ceiling. With the line sitting under a converted try, there's value.

On the total, I lean under. The number is too high for these two teams. The Dolphins have gone under in 6 of 9 games this season (67%), and Friday football has trended that way more broadly with Friday Evening games at 4 of 6 under (67%, avg 49.7) and Friday Night at 9 of 13 (69%, avg 46.8). The Round 1 shootout was an outlier and this game should play closer to the high 40s.

Wests Tigers vs Sea Eagles

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The Sea Eagles have had the edge in this fixture, leading the H2H 7-3 over the last 10 meetings. Results have been varied with the favourite covering 5 of 10 (50%) and the over and under split 5-5 at an average total of 51.2 points. The Sea Eagles are -9.5 here with a total of 53.5.

The Tigers continue to be undermanned with Koroisau, Bula and Doueihi all unavailable, and the loss of those three through the spine is huge. Only a matter of weeks ago they were sitting inside the top four, but with key playmakers missing we're starting to see the 2025 version of this side resurface. They've conceded 48 points per game across their last two outings and look like a team in a downward spiral.

The Sea Eagles are travelling in the opposite direction. Under Kieran Foran they've won 5 of their last 6, with the only loss a tight one to the Panthers, and have scored 28+ in every game in that stretch outside of that one game. They now meet a Tigers spine that can't generate enough points to keep up.

I like the Sea Eagles here. The matchup couldn't be set up better for them, with the Tigers leaking points and the Sea Eagles' attack consistently clicking under Foran. -9.5 looks right in line with how this game should play out, and another 30+ point performance from the Sea Eagles wouldn't surprise.

On the total, I lean over. Sea Eagles attack should get there on its own and Saturday Day football has been a points machine this season, going over in 6 of 8 games at an average of 56.0. The hesitation is the Tigers. If they struggle to crack 16, the over needs the Sea Eagles to do most of the heavy lifting. With the spread sitting under the matchup expectation, that's where I'm more confident.

Roosters vs Cowboys

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The Roosters lead the H2H 6-2 over the last 8 meetings with spread data, and the favourite has held up reasonably well, covering 5 of 8 (62%). The over has hit in 5 of 8 at an average total of 43.5 points. The Roosters are -14.5 here with a total of 55.5.

This one has a bit of dejavu about it. The last time these two met at Magic Round was 2023, when the heavens opened just before kick-off and the Cowboys upset the Roosters 20-6. There are showers in the forecast again on Saturday, and that's exactly the kind of game where a flying favourite gets brought back to the field.

The Roosters are on a six-game winning streak and look as good as anyone in the competition, but this feels like a classic sleepy spot heading into the bye. Just when you think a team can't be beaten, the NRL has a way of finding the opposite result. The Cowboys are coming off a 30-33 loss to the Eels but have a strong bounce-back pattern this season. Outside of their opening two, they haven't had back-to-back losses and have responded after every defeat.

I like the Cowboys with the points. I don't think they win without Dearden, but 14.5 is too much against a Roosters side I think might be due for a quiet one. The Cowboys generally perform well at Magic Round, and with rain potentially in the mix, the Roosters' attacking edge gets neutralised. This feels like the kind of week where the punters get caught backing the obvious side.

On the total, I lean under. The reasoning is the same as the spread. If the Cowboys cover, the most likely path is a lower scoring grind, especially with weather playing a role. Saturday Evening football has also been an under machine this season, going under in 8 of 11 (73%, avg 50.2), which only adds to the case. Not the bet, but a logical companion read.

Eels vs Storm

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The Storm have had the edge in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings. The favourite has covered 7 of 10 (70%), with the chalk being the right side most of the time. The over and under are split 5-5 at an average total of 47.6 points. The Storm are -8.5 here with a total of 53.5.

Both teams come into this off wins that broke difficult stretches. The Eels were surprise winners in Townsville last week, beating the Cowboys 33-30 in a game few would have tipped. The Storm finally snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 44-16 win over the Tigers, their first win since Round 2. The Eels have been one of the hardest teams to read all year, while the Storm finally looked like the Storm again.

I like the Storm here. They looked sharp last week and there's real upside in a side that now has confidence back and a chance to put in another big performance before they lose Munster, Grant and Loiero to Origin duties. The Storm have a strong winning record in this fixture and Suncorp has had mixed results for them recently, but the form arrow points up and the Eels' inconsistency makes it hard to trust them as 8.5 underdogs.

On the total, I lean under. The Storm's defensive effort last week was the standout, holding the Tigers to 16 was the kind of performance that's been missing for most of the season. The hesitation is whether the Tigers being short of full strength flattered them. One game isn't enough to confidently bet the under in a Storm game, but it's the lean.

Titans vs Knights

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A dead even matchup historically, with the H2H split 5-5 over the last 10 meetings. The favourite has covered 5 of 10 (50%), making the chalk a coin flip in this fixture. The over and under are split 5-5 at an average total of 49.1 points. The Knights are -9.5 here with a total of 55.5.

Let's not beat around the bush. The Knights have been one of the impressive sides this season while the Titans have not. The Titans are on a three-game losing streak and have been beaten by 10+ in three of their last four defeats. The Knights, by contrast, were superb last week against a woeful Dragons outfit and continue to look like a real top-eight threat.

The Knights' attack is on fire. Their left edge with Lucas, Best and Marzhew is one of the most dangerous in the comp, and with Ponga joining the line at every opportunity, it makes for a defensive nightmare. The Titans have actually gone alright at Suncorp against non-Queensland sides in recent years, covering in 3 of 4 such games, but this is a different beast. The Knights have too many threats across the park for the Titans to contain.

I like the Knights here. The Titans haven't been completely steamrolled in the past month, but this matchup shapes up as a high-scoring one and Newcastle's edge in firepower is the difference. -9.5 looks fair given current form.

On the total, I lean over. My first instinct was a strong over given how the Knights are scoring. They've gone over in five straight at an average of 63 total points. The hesitation is that the Titans are 2-7 to the under this season (78%), so the two trends pull against each other. Too many contradictions to bet, but the Knights' scoring run is hard to ignore.

Warriors vs Broncos

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The H2H is split 4-4 over the last 8 meetings with spread data. The favourite has been a bad bet, covering just 2 of 8 (25%), and the under has been the dominant scoring theme, hitting in 5 of 8 at an average total of just 42.5 points. The Warriors are -3.5 here with a total of 51.5.

The Warriors are on a four-game winning streak and look like they're building nicely as the season rolls on. The Broncos are coming off back-to-back losses, conceding 38 and 32 in those games, and their forward pack looks a little on the light side. That could be a real issue against the Warriors' big middle. If they can get a roll on through the ruck, space opens up out wide for the Warriors' backs to do damage.

The home team has won 7 of the last 8 in this fixture, but with this being a Warriors home game at Suncorp I'm not reading too much into that. What I do like is how the Warriors travel at Magic Round. They pack out their corner and generally perform well in the festival. It'll still be a pro-Broncos crowd, but the Warriors won't lack for support or intensity.

I like the Warriors here. They're the form team and have the forward pack to exploit the Broncos' biggest weakness right now. The favourite-fade history is worth noting, but most of those losses came when the Broncos were the chalk. The Warriors have only been favoured twice in the last 8 meetings. With current form and the matchup edge through the middle, -3.5 sits below what the matchup deserves.

On the total, I lean under. Historically this fixture trends under (5 of 8 in the H2H, avg 42.5), and both teams have leaned that way in 2026, the Warriors at 4-5 and the Broncos at 3-7 to the under. The hesitation is the Broncos' recent defensive slump and the fact that Sunday Day football has been an over machine this season, going over in 12 of 18 (67%, avg 56.0). Too many contradictions to bet, but the under is the lean.

Panthers vs Dragons

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The Panthers lead the H2H 6-1 over the last 7 meetings with spread data. The favourite has been a poor bet though, covering just 2 of 7 (29%). The over has hit in 5 of 7 at an average total of 48.3 points. The Panthers are -28.5 here with a total of 55.5.

This is a battle between the best team and the worst team in the competition. The Panthers are 9-1, scoring 32 a game and conceding 14. The Dragons are 0-9, scoring 14 and conceding 34. Every form line says lay the lumber, every metric backs the Panthers in a blowout. So why the hesitation?

Because -28.5 is a huge number. It's deserved, but laying nearly five converted tries in any NRL game is asking a lot. This is a pure numbers play. Upsets happen often enough at this level, and even when the favourite wins, getting to 28.5 takes a near-perfect performance against a side that knows they're getting written off all week.

I like the Dragons with the points. My confidence on this being the right side is only around 60%, and that's purely because of how big the spread is. The Panthers might well win by 30 or 40, but at this number I have to take the points.

On the total, I lean under, but only because I'm picking the Dragons to cover. The Panthers have been an even 5-5 to the over/under this season and the Dragons lean slightly under at 3-6, so there's no clear edge from the trends. If the Dragons keep this respectable, the total stays manageable. If the Panthers run riot, all bets are off.