Melbourne have owned this matchup, winning eight of the last 10 against Newcastle, and tellingly both of the Knights' wins in that span came at home in Newcastle. This one's at AAMI Park. The favourite has covered seven of the 10, the over has landed just four times, and the average total is a modest 44.0. The Storm are 4.5-point favourites with the total at 49.5.
The Storm were superb last week. With all their Origin reps back in the fold, they held the Roosters to just four points in greasy conditions, and shutting a side like that down takes some doing. Nick Meaney misses with a calf and Manaia Waitere shifts into the centres, but the spine that matters is intact.
The Knights come in flying, four wins on the trot with three covers from their last four, two at home and two away. The caveat is the company they've kept. That run has come against the Rabbitohs, Dragons, Titans and Eels, hardly a murderer's row, so I'm not reading too much into it.
I lean the Storm to cover the 4.5 at home. The defensive effort against the Roosters is the hook, and I rate that higher than a Knights streak built on soft opposition.
A matchup I like for a side angle: Manaia Waitere starts at right centre for Melbourne, a big body up against Fletcher Hunt, who's been shifted into the centres on Newcastle's left edge. That shapes as a supersized mismatch, and I'd expect the Storm to have a go down that side. Waitere scored in his only right-centre start this season, Round 5 against the Panthers, so at $3.40 there could be a bit of value in his anytime tryscorer. I'm not pushing anyone onto it, just pointing it out.
On the total, every Newcastle result is screaming over. Their games have cleared 49.5 in eight of 12 this season and they're averaging 53.8 points, the most of any side this round. There's a handicap on that profile though. Eleven of their 12 games have been daytime fixtures, and that's where all the scoring has come. This is a rare evening assignment for the Knights, up against a Storm side fresh off holding the Roosters to four. I might be jumping on a wet-weather showing a touch quickly, and it's a Newcastle game where points can come, so it's not a strong play. Backing the Storm defence, I'll take the under.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)
Raiders vs Roosters
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The Roosters open as just 2.5-point favourites in Canberra, and the recent history is part of why the number is so short. The Raiders have won six of the last 10 meetings, including four of the last five. There's a catch buried in those results though. When the Roosters have won this fixture, they've won big, their four wins in the last 10 coming by 12, 24, 28 and 28 points, while the Raiders' last three wins all came by just two. The favourite has covered five of the 10, the average total is a low 43.6, and the over has landed five times. The line is Roosters by 2.5 with the total at 49.5.
The Roosters were poor last week, beaten 18-4 by the Storm in Melbourne. They looked hungover from Origin with six players backing up and just didn't look themselves. That makes it back-to-back losses around the bye, after the Cowboys had knocked them over at Magic Round. The bigger picture is how good they were before that, six straight wins from Round 4 to Round 10 including a 62-point demolition of the Dragons. They name an unchanged 17, with Mark Nawaqanitawase listed in the reserves and a chance of a late call-up as he works back from the syndesmosis surgery that has kept him out since Round 9. If he gets up, he bolsters their right edge. I still rate them one of the best teams in the competition.
The Raiders have been up and down all year at 5-7. They were impressive last week, accounting for the Cowboys 26-12, but that was only their second home win of the season and their first at Canberra since Round 7. They sit 2-4 at home, and across their last five they've lost to the Tigers, Panthers and Dolphins, with the Titans and Cowboys the only wins.
I like the Roosters at -2.5. The market has marked them down off a clunky Origin-hangover week, and on a side this good that feels like an overcorrection against an inconsistent Raiders team. The checks are travel and the head-to-head. This is another game away from Sydney for the Roosters, who haven't played in the city since Round 9, and the Raiders have owned this fixture lately. But the Raiders' wins have been narrow while the Roosters' have been emphatic, and at this number the bounce-back is the side I want.
On the total, I lean under, but it's a no play. Both sides have been streaky here. The Roosters ran hot for a while but have posted three straight unders, and the Raiders have gone under in five of their last six. The slot backs it too, with Friday night games in 2026 landing under in eight of 13, 62%, and averaging just 46 points. It's a lean, not a bet.
Best Bet: Roosters -2.5 $1.90 (2 units)
Cowboys vs Dolphins
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The Dolphins at -4.5 are my favourite play for this game. Since they were blown off the park at home by Manly in Round 5, they've been one of the most dependable sides in the competition against the line. They took the Panthers to Golden Point in Round 7 before going down, fell by two to the Warriors in Wellington in Round 8, and have since accounted for the Storm, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs and Raiders. It's a mix of contenders and strugglers, but what stands out is their consistency: they've covered six on the trot as both underdog and favourite, and when they've won during that run they've done it by eight points or more every time.
The head-to-head backs them in. The Dolphins have won four of the six meetings, and the last two were routs at 58-4 and 43-24. This is a high-scoring fixture too, the over landing in five of the six with the average total a hefty 57.0. Neither side has anything significant in the team list.
I'm not high on the Cowboys. They've shown glimpses, but they've been wildly inconsistent. The Dolphins sit above them on the ladder, though the Cowboys are arguably the better-placed of the two, with two more wins and a bye still to come. The thing that gives me pause is they haven't lost back-to-back games since Rounds 1 and 2, and they're at home off a poor showing against the Raiders in Canberra, so a bounce-back is live.
The 4.5 looks right in the Dolphins' favour, with form and history both pointing their way, but there are reasons to keep the stake light. The Cowboys have been hard to beat at home, winning four of their six there and covering the line in four of the six, and their bounce-back habit only adds to the caution. On the other hand, the Dolphins have been superb on the road, 4-1 against the spread away from home at 80%, which swings it back their way. This one could go either way, but I feel the Dolphins are building towards their best season yet in the NRL and have been the more in-form side, so they're the bet, just at a single unit.
I lean the over as well. This fixture has gone over in five of six, and the last four straight from 2024 onwards. It's a big number at 54.5 and there might be a bit of rain about, so it stays a lean rather than a play.
Best Bet: Dolphins -4.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Broncos vs Titans
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This is a tricky one. The Broncos lead the head-to-head 7-3, but weird things tend to happen in this South-East Queensland derby, and that keeps me from getting too strong on it. The favourite has covered just five of the last 10, and even at home the Broncos have only won three of their last five against the Titans. The over has landed in six of 10 with the average total at 52.0. Brisbane are 7.5-point favourites at Suncorp with the total at 51.5.
Both sides come in cold. The Broncos have lost four straight and the Titans five, so whoever wins will be glad just to stop the bleeding. Brisbane are also down a couple of key men, without Pat Carrigan and Gehamat Shibasaki. Carrigan is the big one, a genuine loss through the middle.
There's a question mark over the Broncos' halves too. Thomas Duffy is named to start at five-eighth, but both Ezra Mam and Ben Hunt are listed on the interchange, which is an odd look. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mam come into the starting side as a late change, perhaps a nod to him not playing the full 80 last week. It's hard to see them running both Mam and Hunt off the bench.
I lean the Broncos, and it's purely about the number. At 7.5 I reckon there's a sliver of value with them at home at Suncorp. If this were 8.5 I wouldn't go near it. With both teams this inconsistent and the fixture this unpredictable, it's a small one-unit play.
On the total, I lean under, and it comes back to both teams' inconsistency. The Broncos have gone over in just five of their 12, but the bigger factor is the Titans. For a side you'd expect to be in high-scoring games, either scoring plenty or leaking plenty, they've gone over only twice in 11 and are on a run of five straight unders. The slot backs it as well, with Saturday games landing under 61% of the time this season, 22 of 36. With both teams desperate to snap long losing runs in what shapes as a hard-fought derby, the under is the way I'm leaning. It's a lean, not a play.
Best Bet: Broncos -7.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Wests Tigers vs Panthers
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This is a big number. The Panthers are 13.5-point favourites at CommBank, a hefty spread for a fixture that's usually low-scoring and scrappy. The Tigers have only been double-digit underdogs once this season, against the Warriors in New Zealand in Round 4, and they covered that day. The Panthers have just one loss all season and keep getting the job done, which is what really counts. They covered five straight to open the year, and while they've covered only three of their last seven since, that's more a reflection of how big the lines have become than any drop-off.
The Tigers snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over the Bulldogs last week. It wasn't convincing, but a win's a win. They're without Alex Twal this week and have reshuffled the forward pack, with Mavrik Geyer coming onto the left edge against his former club. I always watch players in this spot, and there could be a spicy anytime tryscorer in Geyer. The bigger question is where the Tigers' points come from. Penrith's defence is elite, and I'm not sure the Tigers find much through the middle.
The Tigers have also failed to cover in four of their five losses this year, and the three before last week's win were blowouts, beaten by 42, 28 and 28.
On the line, I lean towards the Panthers covering the 13.5. They're a class above and should win this comfortably, and as we've covered, the Tigers can get beaten by plenty when they're off the boil. It's not where I've landed my bet though. The grinding nature of this fixture and the conflicting signals keep me from loading up on the full-time line, but if you're taking a side on the spread, it's the Panthers.
On the total, I lean under, purely on the trends of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have all gone under at an average of just 33.1, and the Tigers should again find it tough to score through the middle against Penrith's defence. It stays a lean though, because the 2026 picture cuts the other way: CommBank has been neutral for totals, Sunday afternoon games have leaned over at 61% and 54.4 points a game, and the Parramatta forecast is fine and dry for fast footy.
My bet on this game is the Panthers to lead by 6.5 or more at half-time, at a single unit. This is a matchup full of conflicting signals, which is exactly why it's small, but the angle I trust most is Penrith's first-half dominance. They've led at the break in 11 of their 12 games this season, and by seven or more in nine of those, at an average half-time lead of 14 points. Cleary, Yeo and To'o are all back after being rested last week, so they'll be fresh, and I expect them to come out of the blocks quicker than a Tigers side whose season is in the balance. The fixture has historically been a tight grind early, so I'm keeping it to one unit, but the Panthers' first-half record is the play.
Best Bet: Panthers -6.5 at Half-Time $1.98 (1 unit)
Sharks vs Dragons
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The Sharks have owned this fixture in recent times, winning nine of the last 10, with the only blemish coming last year away to the Dragons. The favourite has covered seven of the 10 and the over has landed in six, with the average total at 44.3. Cronulla are 11.5-point favourites at home with the total at 53.5.
The Sharks have had a solid season and come in with three straight home wins, and they're at home again this week, so I lean them to get the job done. Last week's win over Manly came 28-22, though the Sea Eagles came home with a wet sail late and the error, penalty and six-again count was heavily in Cronulla's favour at 28 to 14. Cronulla also remain without Nicho Hynes at halfback. He missed last week as well, so it's an ongoing absence rather than a fresh blow, but still a significant out for their attack.
The Dragons finally got the monkey off their back last week with an impressive 30-26 win away to the Broncos in Brisbane, covering as 19.5-point underdogs and shocking plenty of people. More than the result, their forward pack has looked genuinely good over the last month, a pack that can match it with most in the competition. With this being a derby and that first win now banked, I can see them carrying some belief into this one.
On the spread, this comes down to a big number against a Sharks side that is excellent at home. Cronulla have covered 67% of their home games over the last three years, and they're 4-1 at home in Cronulla this season, both straight up and against the spread, with three of those four wins coming by 14 or more, last week's six-point win over Manly the only tight one. They've also been perfect in the Sunday afternoon slot this year, 3-0 and winning by 12, 14 and 42. The Dragons, by contrast, have covered just 46% on the road over the last three years, and sit at 3-3 against the spread away from home this season. That's the case for the Sharks, and it's why I'm not going big.
But I'll still side with the Dragons to cover the 11.5, and it's a combination of things rather than any one factor. That forward pack, the monkey now off their back, the derby edge, and the Sharks being without Hynes all add up. At a number this big, against a Dragons side carrying some belief, I'm happy to be on them.
On the total, I don't have a strong feel, largely because of the unknown around what the Dragons' attack actually is. The raw numbers point to the over. The Sharks have gone over in eight of their 11 this season and the Dragons in three of their last five, and the line sits at 53.5. But my read on the game pulls the other way. If I'm backing the Dragons to cover, I'm expecting a tighter, grinding derby, and that's an under. The flip side is real, if the Sharks are the ones covering, this likely sails over. Conditions are fine and the Dragons can certainly leak points, so I'm not betting it, but because I'm on the Dragons to hang in, the under is the scenario I lean towards. It's a lean, not a play.
Best Bet: Dragons +11.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)
Bulldogs vs Eels
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A bit of Monday afternoon footy to round out the King's Birthday long weekend. This is a hard one to get a read on, and I'm not confident in either side. The Bulldogs opened the week at -5.5 and haven't budged, with the total at 50.5. Both teams have been desperately inconsistent, sitting on just four wins apiece.
Form gives you little to hang onto. The Bulldogs have won just one of their last seven and two of their last nine. The Eels are in the same boat, one win from their last five and two from their last nine. Something has to give, but it's hard to trust either.
The head-to-head leans Parramatta, who have won six of the last 10, and the favourite has covered six of those 10.
The total is the more interesting market on paper. These two have gone under in eight of their last 10 meetings, at an average of just 41 points. The season form muddies it though. Both teams are an even six-and-six on the over/under, and recently they've split, with the Eels under in four of their last five and the Bulldogs over in three of their last five. I don't have a strong lean on the points.
The key for me sits at halfback. The Eels are without Mitch Moses, and their record without their captain is grim. Across the last three years they've won just nine of 33 games without him, a 27% clip, and covered only around 40% of the time. They did show fight in his absence last week, covering as 15.5-point underdogs against the Knights in a six-point loss, but a gallant cover in a defeat is exactly the kind of result that tends not to repeat. The Bulldogs, by contrast, are the better team on paper with a more settled halves pairing. The one caveat is at the back, they've looked a lot better with Jacob Kiraz at fullback, and he's in some doubt for this one.
On the spread, I don't love either side, but I'm landing on the Bulldogs to cover the 5.5. It's firmed up from a pure gun-to-the-head pick. The settled halves, the better top-end talent and a Moses-less Eels attack all tilt it Canterbury's way.
Best Bet: Bulldogs -5.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
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