This one is all about who actually takes the field. Both clubs get players back from Origin duty, five for the Dolphins and three for the Sharks, and with those names sitting in the reserves until late, the two line-ups could look very different by kick-off. Both sides are also scrapping to hold their place in the eight, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form-wise there is not much between them. The Dolphins' eight-game winning run came to an end last week with a one-point loss to the Knights, while the Sharks have won five of their last six, the latest a job done on the Broncos after bouncing back from a loss to the Roosters. Cronulla's defence was impressive in that one.
On the line, Sharks +4.5, I lean to Cronulla to cover. I think they will be the less disrupted of the two, three coming back rather than five, and there is a bit of a return-leg angle here. The Dolphins won the first meeting comfortably, 38-10 back in Round 3, and you often see the beaten side lift when the fixture comes around again later in the year. With so many unknowns, though, it is a no bet for me.
The total sits at 49.5, and my first instinct at Redcliffe on a Saturday afternoon was the over. The numbers say otherwise. The Dolphins have gone under in ten of their sixteen this year, the Sharks in seven of fifteen, and Cronulla's last four have all gone under. With the personnel up in the air I will lean under in the end, but it is another no bet.
So the only play here is a light one. I have this as a close game with so much unknown, so I will take the small margin and keep the stake down.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $2.00 (1 unit)
Bulldogs vs Raiders
vs 
Now this is an intriguing one. Both these sides finished top four last year and both find themselves outside the eight now, the Bulldogs tenth and the Raiders thirteenth. Four competition points split them on paper, but with the Raiders still owing a bye it is really only a game between them. For both, this has the feel of a must-win. Lose it and finals football starts to drift out of reach.
The Dogs have been the better side lately. Beyond a six-point loss to the Tigers in Round 13 they have won four of their last five, while the Raiders have managed just two wins from their last five. Both come in fresh off the bye.
These two have been among the hardest teams in the competition to trust all year, blowing hot and cold, and that is the theme of this one. The Bulldogs have the better recent footy, but the Raiders get a couple of key forwards back, with Noah Martin returning to the starting team and Josh Papalii adding real punch off the interchange, so expect their middle rotation to look sharper than it has. I just have a feeling there could be an upset on the cards here. I lean to the Raiders and the points, with the line out to 4.5 from 2.5 and those forwards back to help control the middle, but on the spread it is a no bet either way.
The total sits at 45.5 and the line looks about right. Both teams have been low-scoring, the Dogs under in nine of fifteen and the Raiders under in eleven of sixteen, and recent form leans the same way, the Dogs under in their last four and the Raiders under in four of their last five. Even with fine weather and a quick track expected, a finals-feel game tends to tighten up, which nudges me towards the under. But with how unpredictable both sides have been, I am not backing it. No bet.
Where the value is for me is the margin, and the history is the sell. The last ten meetings have all been decided by 14 points or fewer, and seven of them by 10 or fewer. The Bulldogs have played a string of tight ones since finding form around Round 12, four landing in the one-to-ten range, while the Raiders have had only two of their last five fall that way. Add in a finals-type occasion for two teams whose seasons are on the line and I want the small margin.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.92 (1.5 units)
Roosters vs Eels
vs 
The big question here is how the Roosters pull up after Origin, because we have seen both extremes from them this year. Back in Round 13 they were outclassed away at the Storm and beaten by 14, then after Origin II they came out and comprehensively accounted for the Sharks at home by 19. Which version turns up at Allianz is anyone's guess.
There is plenty of love coming for the Eels and I understand why. They were impressive at home last week, a good win over the Sea Eagles, and they have won two of their last three. But I rate this Roosters side a fair bit higher than Manly, and I still think they are very, very good. The wrinkles are around the edges. Tedesco is named but looks likely to be omitted after failing an HIA in the Origin decider, Nawaqanitawase is backing up from the same game, Lindsay Collins is out on concussion protocols, and Nat Butcher is suspended, so the bench looks a touch light. Mitchell Moses is also backing up for the Eels. So there are unknowns on both sides.
There are so many contradictions here. I lean to the Roosters to cover, on the back of how they handled the same task after Origin II, and this fixture is generally a one-sided affair, six of the last ten decided by more than ten points. Working against it is the Roosters' own record as a big favourite, just 1-3 against the line as a double-digit favourite this year. Add the Origin backups and it is a no bet for me on the line.
Where I land is the total. It has come down to 48.5, and I like the under. This goes against my usual instinct to back the over at Allianz, but the numbers are hard to ignore. The Roosters have gone over just once since Round 9, the 58-point game away to the Dolphins when they were understrength, and the Eels have been over just once since Round 8, the 63-point thriller with the Cowboys. Both have been grinding out low-scoring footy, and often by a fair margin. Saturday-night games have also gone under 78% of the time this year. With both sides backing up from Origin and those games tending to get clunky, and 48.5 a better number than the 47.5 or 45.5 we might have seen, that is where the value sits.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Rabbitohs vs Knights
vs 
My first reaction was surprise at the line. For all their inconsistency, I still had Souths as slight favourites at home, so it caught me off guard to see the Knights in front, even by only 1.5. Look a little closer and it makes sense. The Souths line-up is very different to what I pictured. The backline has been torn up, with Latrell Mitchell and Alex Johnston both out, Cody Walker suspended, and a makeshift halves pairing of Jayden Sullivan and Ashton Ward. Matt Dufty comes in at fullback, Tallis Duncan shifts to the centres and Campbell Graham returns from injury. That is a lot of strike power missing against one of the best backlines in the competition. Where I do give Souths the edge is up front. I rate their forward pack the stronger of the two, with Cameron Murray back from Origin to lead it.
There is a bit of a narrative here too. Accor will host a big club celebration for Jai Arrow's 31st birthday, and sides can lift for occasions like that, so I would not be shocked to see the Bunnies come out fired up.
My first thought was to take the points with Souths. It looks almost too good to be true, especially with the Knights not travelling well. Across their run of seven wins from eight, only three games were away, and those three tell the story: the lone loss, to the Storm, plus wins over the Dragons and Titans, two of the weakest sides in the competition. The rest of the streak has been built at home. Widen it out and their away form this year is beating an out-of-form Bulldogs and a poor Manly, with losses to the Roosters and the Tigers. A win here would comfortably be their biggest scalp on the road all year. The trouble is that Souths halves pairing. With Sullivan and Ward steering a backline missing its two biggest weapons, I just cannot pull the trigger on the Bunnies. It does not put me on the Knights either.
Ponga and Best are both named to back up from Origin, with Ponga the one to watch for a late change. If he were to sit it would nudge things further towards Souths.
Which brings me to the total, sitting at 48.5. It is a fine Sunday afternoon, and my lean is to the under. These sides served up an 80-point shootout in Newcastle back in Round 9, but I do not see a repeat, not with the Souths backline stripped this bare. Both teams have trended under lately, the Bunnies in five of their last seven and the Knights in five of their last six. It is a lean rather than a play.
Where I land for a bet is the margin. I do not see the Knights winning by much on the road, and I certainly do not see this depleted Souths side running away with it. That points to a tight one, and that is where the value sits.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.91 (1.5 units)
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys
vs 
Both these sides sit level on 22 points, the Sea Eagles just inside the eight and the Cowboys just outside, so there is plenty riding on it. Their form is near enough identical, each with two wins from their last five. The Cowboys come in off a decent win over the Panthers at home, while Manly are coming off an off day, beaten by the Eels well below their best.
For me that is exactly where the value has crept in. The Eels result and the Cowboys knocking off Penrith have nudged this line, and I think it has gone too far. At home Manly have been outstanding, winning all five of their home games since Round 5, four of them by 13 or more. They start fast too, leading at half-time in 81% of their games and scoring first three times out of four, while the Cowboys have been poor in this Sunday-afternoon slot at just 1-3 against the line. I am not high on the Cowboys at all. They have overperformed my read on them this year, but I do not think they are a good side, and there are teams below them I would argue are better placed. Manly have also owned this fixture lately, winning eight of the last ten. This shapes as a home win by a handy margin, and it is comfortably my best bet of the week.
On the total I do not have a strong feel. Both have been unders sides, Manly going under in eleven games at an average of 44.5, the Cowboys under in ten at just under 50. Normally that points one way, but I lean the other. I can see a Sea Eagles bounce-back at home in front of their fans on a Sunday afternoon, and the Cowboys have the firepower to answer. At 48.5 it is only a lean, and if it were a touch lower I would be tempted. No bet on the total.
Best Bet: Sea Eagles -5.5 $1.90 (2.5 units)
Storm vs Titans
vs 
The Storm have handled the post-Origin week well this year. With the likes of Munster and Grant backing up, they beat the Roosters by 14 in Round 13 and hammered the Raiders by 22 in Round 16. They found their groove after a rough patch earlier in the season and have won five of their last seven. Four of those were at home, and they won three of the four by 13 or more. That is exactly the profile you want when laying points.
The Titans have shown a bit of fight lately, two wins from their last four, and there is a genuine scalp in there with the win over the competition-leading Panthers. But they remain a side that struggles to stay in games early.
I lean to the Storm to cover, and they are more than capable of making this a blowout. But I have a feeling the Titans can stick around here, so on the line it is a no bet. Where I want to be is the half-time market. The Storm have led at the break in 11 of their 16 games, and by six or more points in seven of them. The Titans have been behind at half-time in 11 of 15, and by six or more in seven. Put an in-form Storm at home against a Titans side that routinely starts slow, and the half-time handicap is where the value sits for me.
On the total I do not have a firm read. It is a mixed bag, the Storm are more of an over team this year at just over 49 points a game, the Titans a heavy under side, averaging just over 44 and going under in around 80% of their games, which is a remarkable number in the current climate. The Storm have the firepower to pile them on, but the Titans have dragged nearly every game right down, so it pulls both ways. No bet on the total.
Best Bet: Storm -5.5 at half-time $1.78 (2 units)
vs 
vs 