This one may tell us plenty about both sides and where they're heading this season. Are the Sharks the real deal or pretenders, and the same question hangs over the Knights. Cronulla have had the wood on Newcastle lately, winning six of the last nine between them, with the favourite covering in six of those nine. The scoring has been on the modest side though, averaging just over 40 points a game across that run. The Sharks are laying -8.5 with the total at 46.5.
Both teams beat the Dolphins in the last fortnight, but in very different fashion. Newcastle ground out a one-point win at home, while Cronulla put 66 on them without reply last week. That result is the reason there's a bit of hype building around the Sharks, and I'm still not entirely sold, but there's no arguing with the timing. This is their first game back at home after four straight on the road, and a side with this much to prove will be itching to put on a show in front of their own crowd.
I lean the Sharks on the line. They've been excellent at home this year, covering the spread in five of their last six at the Shire, four of them on the bounce. The Knights, for their part, come in off a narrow loss and have looked a level below. But -8.5 is a big number for a team I'm not fully convinced by yet, and with genuine unknowns on both sides it stays a lean rather than a play.
Where I do want to get involved is the total. The over sits at 46.5, and the Sharks at home have been an over machine, clearing that number in five of their last six there. Newcastle are the obvious counter, having gone under in five of their last seven and struggling to put points on, with scores of just 12, 13, 22 and 24 across their last four. But a Cronulla side this fired up at home, against a Knights outfit that will likely have to chase the game, is the kind of script that gets there. I'll take the points to flow.
Best Bet: Over 46.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Roosters vs Storm
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Not many would have pencilled in the Roosters as 11.5-point favourites over the Storm. Melbourne have owned this fixture, with the Roosters winning just twice in the last ten meetings, last year and before that all the way back in 2022. The most recent came this season, an 18-4 Storm win that held the Roosters to a single try. On paper the line looks a stretch. The Roosters are laying -11.5 with the total at 45.5.
What flips it is the state of the Melbourne side. This is a long way from their best team, with both Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes out of the halves and a makeshift pairing of Tyran Wishart and Trent Toelau who have not played together in those roles. Melbourne being Melbourne they will hang in and grind, they always do, but where the points come from with that spine is a genuine question. The Roosters by contrast are close to full strength, with only James Tedesco missing due to HIA protocols.
I think the Roosters win this, and at Allianz they should have the quality to do it. But I never love opposing Melbourne on a number this big, so the -11.5 stays a lean rather than a play.
The total is where the Melbourne question really bites, and I lean under 45.5. The Roosters have been solid defensively this year and their games have gone under in seven of their last eight, while the Storm's last two have both stayed under. Add an attack missing its two main creators and a Friday-night trend that has produced unders in 64% of games this season, and the case builds. There are points in both these rosters, but I can't see this one flying.
The play for me is the Roosters to lead at half-time. I think they come out firing, and with Melbourne's makeshift halves needing time to click, the Roosters have the quality to build a buffer before the break. The Storm may well work their way back into it late, but that is a second-half concern.
Best Bet: Roosters -5.5 at half-time $1.90 (1.5 units)
Raiders vs Rabbitohs
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Just two wins separate these sides on the table, which is a surprise given how far off the pace the Raiders have looked at times this year. They are still a chance at the eight, and a home game against a side just above them is close to must-win if they want to close that gap. Canberra opened as favourites before the market flipped, and Souths are now the narrowest of favourites at -0.5. That looks generous to the visitors when you consider the Raiders have won the last five meetings in this fixture, including a 36-34 shootout in Perth earlier this season. The total sits at 49.5.
Both teams arrive off wins. The Raiders look closer to full strength than they have for a number of weeks and put 40 on the Bulldogs last week. It was an emotional day for Souths too, celebrating Jai Arrow's birthday, and they got the job done against the Knights, holding on 26-24 as Newcastle came home strong with three late tries to almost complete the comeback. On paper there is very little between them, though Souths remain without Latrell Mitchell.
I'm with the Raiders here. Their season is effectively on the line, they are at home, and they have owned this matchup with five straight wins. A Canberra side finding a bit of form, getting the half-point as a home underdog in a game they simply have to win, is exactly where I want to be. If their late run at the finals starts anywhere, it is here.
The total is where I lean rather than commit. The forecast is clear with no rain about, the track should be quick, and when these two met in Perth they racked up 70 between them. Both have gone over in two of their last three. The pull the other way is the season-long picture, with the Raiders going under in 65% of their games and Souths sitting at an even 8-8, so the over stays a lean.
Best Bet: Raiders +0.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Warriors vs Dragons
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Fifteen and a half is a huge number, and I understand why the Warriors are sitting where they are. They were excellent last week against the Wests Tigers, overpowering them up front, and their forward pack is rolling as well as any in the competition right now with the outside backs finishing their chances. They are the better side here and I expect them to win. But this line asks a lot.
The Dragons have quietly turned their season around. It has been a hard watch for their supporters, but the signs are there and the results back it up. They have covered four of their last six and five of their last seven against the line. The young forward pack is mobile, it is defending well and it has started to win the middle, and since their Round 12 loss to these same Warriors they have led at half-time in four of their last five. This is a side that keeps turning up.
Here is the number that matters most. Since Andrew Webster took over in 2023, the Warriors have been a double-digit favourite at home in Auckland on ten occasions. They have not covered once. Not a single time from ten attempts. They win plenty of those games, but putting weaker opposition away by the margin the market demands is something this group simply does not do at home. That is close to the whole case in one line.
So while the Warriors should win, I want the Dragons and the 15.5. A side playing with this much belief, against a home favourite that has not covered a double-digit line in Auckland once in three years, is exactly the kind of value worth chasing.
The total is set at 47.5 and I lean under. If the Dragons do their job and keep this tight, the points are not there, and Saturday night games have gone under in fifteen of nineteen this season. It stays a lean rather than a bet, but it leans firmly one way.
Best Bet: Dragons +15.5 $1.98 (2.5 units)
Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers
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There is not much to love about either side here, and I would be surprised if either features in the eight come September. The Bulldogs are the more likely of the two though, and the market agrees, installing them at -6.5 with the total at 45.5. There is not a heap of value in the line given it nudges over that one-score mark, but I still land on Canterbury.
The Bulldogs were poor last week, beaten by 24 at home by the Raiders as favourites, which is not the form line you want to lead with. But they are getting healthier, with bodies working their way back into the side, and they still have plenty to play for. Their recent record says they are the better team here even if the performances have not always been pretty.
The Tigers, by contrast, look done. They were hammered 32-6 by the Warriors last week, and the bigger worry is where their points come from at all. They have not passed ten in any of their last three, with 6 against the Knights, 10 against the Dragons and 6 against the Warriors. Their big men up front will make their tackles and compete in the middle, but a team scoring at that rate is in serious trouble.
I like the Bulldogs to cover the 6.5. They are the better side, they are getting fitter, and they have more to play for against an opponent whose season is effectively over. I expect it to be tight in patches, but Canterbury have the quality to pull clear late.
The same logic points to the under. Neither of these teams is putting up points, the Tigers cannot buy a try, and Saturday night games have gone under in fifteen of nineteen this season. At 45.5 I want the under alongside the spread.
Best Bet: Bulldogs -6.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Best Bet: Under 45.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Titans vs Sea Eagles
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The Titans are all but done for the year, while Manly have work to do after losing three of their last four and slipping outside the eight. They need to start winning to climb back in, and I do not think they lose this one. The -5.5 actually surprises me a little, I expected it to be north of six, so there is a sliver of value on the Sea Eagles at the number. The one thing that gives me pause is the Titans' habit of hanging around, they have a knack for clawing back into games in the second half, so the full-game spread stays a lean rather than a play.
Where the real money is, is the total, and it is a pure numbers play. This is one of the strongest under profiles of the round. The Titans have gone under in 13 of their 16 games this season (81%), and their last over was all the way back in Round 15 away at the Wests Tigers, with every game since staying under. Manly are barely better, under in 12 of their 17 (71%) and without an over since Round 13. Between them these two sides have gone over just eight times in 32 games this year. The fixture itself has gone under in four of the last five, the most recent a 12-10 Manly win that barely cleared 20 points. With a points differential of plus 132, Manly only need the two competition points here, not a blowout. Everything points the same way. At 47.5 I want the under.
The second play is Manly to lead at the break. They have been one of the fastest-starting teams in the competition, leading at half-time in 14 of their 17 games, while the Titans have trailed at the half in 13 of 16. If the Sea Eagles are anywhere near their best early they should be in front, and comfortably. The only slight worry is the goalkicking, with Jamal Fogarty having an off night with the boot last week, but at this price the value is too good to leave. Sea Eagles -2.5 at half-time is the bet.
Best Bet: Under 47.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Best Bet: Sea Eagles -2.5 at half-time $1.91 (2 units)
Dolphins vs Cowboys
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Two weeks ago this looked a very different fixture. Just four competition points separated these teams, the Cowboys were struggling to stay in touch with the eight and the Dolphins looked like genuine contenders. It has flipped quickly. The Dolphins have lost two on the bounce, capped by a 66-0 humiliation at the hands of the Sharks last week, while the Cowboys have strung together a strong fortnight, beating the Panthers at home and winning away at Manly. That swing is why the Cowboys are getting so much respect here, with the Dolphins laying only -3.5. The total is set at 50.5.
I still do not think the Cowboys make the eight and I do think the Dolphins do, which tells you where my head is at. Sides tend to respond after a hiding like the one the Dolphins copped last week, and with their season needing a jolt, at home, and close to full strength with the Origin contingent back, I expect a bounce back. They also have recent history on their side, having beaten the Cowboys 40-14 when these two last met and won five of the last seven between them.
The one thing I'm cautious of is the absence of Isaiya Katoa, who has been out since injuring himself against the Warriors in Round 17. A side missing a halfback of that quality is a slightly different proposition, and it is the main reason this is a one-unit play rather than anything bigger. Worth noting too that the Cowboys have Tom Dearden lurking in the reserves, and he would be a significant boost if named to play.
I like the Dolphins to cover the 3.5. This has the makings of a cracker, but a motivated Dolphins side at home in a near must-win is where I want to be.
The total is a different story, and it is a no play for me. The head to head screams over, with the last five meetings all clearing 50.5 and the average sitting at 56.6, yet both these teams have leaned under all season, the Dolphins in 59% of their games and the Cowboys in 65%. Add a game with this much on the line, which so often tightens up, and there are simply too many outcomes in play. I lean under with no real conviction, but I am staying off it.
Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
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