This fixture has a remarkable pattern: the home side has won all five meetings, and every one has been a blowout, decided by 14 points or more. That actually reads in the Dragons' favour here. They're at home, the visiting side has never won this matchup, and for the +13.5 to lose the Dolphins would need to do something no away team has managed in the series. The line is Dolphins -13.5 with the total at 49.5.
The context is ugly for the Dragons. They were awful last week, outclassed at home by the Titans and carved up down their right edge, and the Dolphins come in fresh off the bye. Thirteen and a half is a big number. But this is a proud club that had been competitive in most games since Round 13, last week aside, and I don't buy that one poor afternoon means the season is gone and they get a cricket score hung on them. I keep coming back to their young forward pack winning the middle, and of the two teams I rate the Dragons the stronger up front.
As a home dog of 13.5, I just can't lay that price against a proud side at home. Big underdogs have been a strong bet all season, sides getting 13.5 or more have covered 70% of the time in 2026 (14 of 20), and the home-team history in this fixture only adds to it. Give me the Dragons and the points.
The total is a genuine puzzle. The Dolphins have serious points in them, seven of their last eight games have cleared 49.5, and if the Dragons' right edge leaks the way it did last week the scoreboard could tick over. Against that, the Dragons have been one of the competition's stronger under sides, going under in 13 of their 18 games (72%) and over the line just once in their last six, that being last week's 56-point outlier against the Titans. There are too many unknowns to be confident either way, but with the points I can see in this one, I lean the over.
Best Bet: Dragons +13.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)
Storm vs Bulldogs
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The Storm have owned this fixture, winning six of the last eight and five of the six played in Melbourne, and the favourite has covered six of eight. The catch is how it has tightened lately: the last four meetings since 2024 have all been decided by one to ten points, including the Bulldogs' 30-20 win in Sydney earlier this year. The line is Storm -6.5 with a low total of 42.5.
The Bulldogs are the form side. They've won six of their last eight and look a different team since Preston and Kikau returned from injury, particularly in defence, conceding 12 or fewer in five of their six games since Round 14, and just six and nil in the last fortnight. The Storm are scratchier, 4-4 across their last eight and coming off back-to-back losses. Harry Grant's hamstring forces a reshuffle through their spine and backline, and they will be without Will Warbrick, who is now out injured for the rest of the season. Both are chasing the eight from the outside, the Bulldogs ninth and the Storm twelfth, four points back, so a Melbourne win would bring the Storm to within a game of the Bulldogs, with a bye in hand still to come that could square things up.
Even with this one in Melbourne, I lean the Bulldogs to cover the 6.5. They are simply travelling the better of the two. I wasn't sold on them earlier in the year, but they've been impressive since beating the Storm back in Round 12. My instinct is usually to back the side that lost the earlier meeting, which would point to the Storm here, and they can certainly win it. But with Grant and Warbrick out and the reshuffle through their spine and backline, against a Bulldogs side in this kind of form, I can't get to the 6.5 with any conviction. No play on the line.
The total is a skinny 42.5 and I understand why, the Bulldogs have gone under in six of their last seven. The Storm have been in a few more open games, so there is a contradiction, but with plenty on the line for both I lean the under. That said, 42.5 is simply too low a number to hand over as a play. Lean under, no bet.
What it all points to is a close game. The last four in this fixture have landed inside 10 points, four of the Storm's last six have been one-to-ten-point games, and a mean Bulldogs defence against a misfiring Storm attack screams tight. With a finals place tugging at both, I can't see it going any other way, and it's my best bet of the weekend.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 Points $1.91 (2.5 units)
Titans vs Warriors
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The Titans have been a tricky opponent for the Warriors, winning three in a row through 2024 and 2025, though the Warriors have since flipped it, taking the last two, including an eight-point win in Auckland earlier this year. The line is Warriors -4.5 with the total at 49.5.
The Titans are in their best form of the season. Back-to-back wins with 38 points in each, their attack is clicking, and they've won three of their last five. The flip side is a defence that has been badly leaky, conceding 18 or more in every game since Round 14. The Warriors, by contrast, look out of sorts. They've dropped two of their last five, laboured past the Dragons a fortnight ago and couldn't crack a strong Bulldogs defence last week, taking 74 minutes to get on the board. They sit third and will be desperate to lock away a top-two finish and a home final, so there is plenty on it for them.
At 4.5 the line looks about right and I don't see much value in it either way. The Titans have been a bogey side for the Warriors at times and they're playing with real confidence right now, so I'll leave the spread alone.
Both teams have points in them and this is a Saturday afternoon on the Gold Coast. The Titans' defence has been there for the taking, that 18-plus every week since Round 14, and they've gone over in back-to-back games. The one contradiction is the Warriors, who are riding a run of unders, seven of their last eight. I'll back the points here anyway, the Titans' leaks plus both attacks having a pulse is enough for me.
The one I keep circling is the half-time market, and this is as much a read on the shape of the game as the numbers. The Warriors took an age to get going last week and I expect a sharper, faster start from a side that knows exactly what's at stake. The Titans trail at the break in 67% of their games, and on the nine occasions the Warriors have led at half-time this year, every one has been by four or more. A fast Warriors start against a slow-starting Titans side is the shape I want.
Best Bet: Warriors -2.5 at Half-Time $1.91 (1 unit)
Best Bet: Over 49.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Panthers vs Raiders
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There's plenty of hype around this one, a rare regional outing for the Panthers out at Mudgee. History says it's Penrith's to lose: they've been favourites in all of the last eight meetings, won six of them and covered six as well. It has also tended to stay tight, five of those eight going under. The line is Panthers -9.5 with a low total of 44.5.
The Panthers have been a touch shaky lately, winning two of their last five, the latest a gritty comeback against the Eels where they trailed at the break, hit the front and hung on by six despite conceding late. They remain without Dylan Edwards at fullback with a shoulder complaint, and Jack Cogger shifts into the halves. The Raiders, by contrast, are flying, unchanged and on a four-game winning streak, every one of those wins by eight or more, and they're chasing a spot in the eight.
Nine and a half is a big number to hang on a side in this kind of form. The Raiders are rolling, they need every game in the run home, and they'll be right up for it. Against a Panthers side that has been patchy and is missing its fullback, I'll take the points. The one thing that gives me pause is the fixture itself, Penrith have covered six of the last eight here, so this is the Raiders on current form against the Panthers on history. I'll back the form.
The total is a mess of contradictions. This fixture has gone under in five of the last eight, both sides have been under teams this year, the Panthers going under 61% of the time and the Raiders 58%, and Penrith have gone under in four of their last five. Pulling the other way, the Raiders' attack has been humming, over in four of their last five, and I expect a bit of a spectacle here. I lean the over at 44.5 on the Raiders' firepower, but with that many crosscurrents it is a no play.
Best Bet: Raiders +9.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Broncos vs Knights
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The Broncos have had the wood on the Knights, winning the last six meetings and covering four of them, with five of those six wins by double figures, the lone exception a four-point squeeze in 2023. The line is Broncos -5.5 with the total at 45.5.
Brisbane's season is on life support. With six games left they need plenty to go their way to sneak into the eight, and while it is mathematically alive it has barely got a pulse. They're home after two weeks on the road, though home hasn't helped lately, having lost their last four at Suncorp to the Dragons, Titans, Roosters and Sharks. Newcastle are desperate too, right in the fight for the eight, but they were dealt a blow with Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas both lost for the season last week. They pushed the Roosters to a single point at home last week, and remarkably every one of their last eight games since Round 13 has been decided by six points or fewer, four wins and four losses.
This is a narrative-based play. The Broncos are back home, they need to start clawing back for-and-against, and I think they'll want to put on a performance for their fans. I like them to win and cover the 5.5. The reason it is only a small play is Newcastle's run of nail-biters, eight straight decided by six or fewer, which makes any margin bet a nervous one, and at full strength I rate this Knights side a touch higher than the Broncos, even if losing Brown and Lucas narrows that for this one. But at home, with something to prove, give me Brisbane to do a number here.
Both teams have leaned under lately, each going under in five of their last six, so I lean the under at 45.5. With both sides desperate and the game capable of opening up, though, it stays a lean only, no play on the total.
Best Bet: Broncos -5.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Sharks vs Rabbitohs
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The Sharks hold a slight edge in the head-to-head, six wins to four across the last ten, but the Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting comprehensively, 36-12 back in Round 10. The line is Sharks -11.5 with the total at 50.5.
The Sharks are flying. They've won eight of their last nine, the only blemish a comprehensive loss away to the Roosters in Round 16, and they've arguably been the most in-form team in the competition over the last two months. They sit fourth and suddenly look every bit a top-four side. The Rabbitohs have patched a few results together, winning four of their last six with both losses coming on the road at the Panthers and the Raiders, but they've been the more inconsistent of the two and sit four points behind the Sharks. Both name unchanged sides, though Tallis Duncan is in the reserves and could be a late inclusion for Souths.
I like the Sharks here. They love this Sunday-afternoon slot, sitting 5-0 against the spread in it this year and winning by big margins, and they've won seven of their nine at home, including their last five straight, while scoring freely. After the Rabbitohs did them over in Round 10, I expect a pointed response. The one thing that gives me pause is laying 11.5 against a Wayne Bennett side as big underdogs, and there is still plenty for Souths to play for, but the Sharks are simply too good right now to look past. Give me Cronulla to cover.
The over stacks up too. This has been a high-scoring fixture, and both sides are in point-scoring mood. The Rabbitohs have gone over in four straight, none of those games under 50 points, and while the Sharks have been more mixed lately with two overs and two unders, they've cleared the total in four of their five Sunday-afternoon games. The slot has trended that way league-wide too, with 22 of 36 Sunday-afternoon games going over this season (61%). Add a fine forecast in Sydney and a Cronulla side putting up big numbers, and I'll take the over.
Best Bet: Sharks -11.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Best Bet: Over 50.5 $1.98 (1.5 units)
Wests Tigers vs Eels
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The Eels have had the better of this one lately, leading the last ten meetings six to four, though the Tigers actually took the most recent, a two-point win at Parramatta back in Round 6. It has also been a high-scoring fixture, averaging 50.8 points with six of the last ten going over. The line is Eels -7.5 with the total at 48.5.
The Wests Tigers are in a world of hurt. They've lost six on the bounce and won just two of their last twelve after a fast start to the year, and the mood around the club has soured amid the noise over Adam Doueihi's future. He's named to start after reportedly walking out of training last week, so how he responds is anyone's guess. The Eels have been their usual inconsistent selves, though in fairness their last two losses came against the top two sides in the competition, the Roosters and the Panthers.
It's hard not to lean the Eels at 7.5 given the state the Tigers are in, and I do lean that way. But I don't really know what to expect from either side. The Eels blow hot and cold, and a wounded Tigers outfit could just as easily throw up a spirited bounce-back. That uncertainty keeps me off the line.
The under is where I land, and it's basically a read on the Eels. They've been an under machine this year, going under 67% of the time and in eight straight, while the Tigers have edged the same way, under in four of their last five. The counter is the fixture history, which has been open, and the chance a bounce-back Tigers side helps blow it up. With so many unknowns it's only a small play, but the way the Eels have been travelling, I'll take the under.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 $1.85 (1 unit)
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