Season Tracker
Through 21 rounds, we're sitting at +56.51 units for the season with an overall record of 105-66 from 171 Best Bets (61.40%). Round 21 was a quiet one, 4-4 for -0.83 units. The Raiders' 56-10 demolition of the Wests Tigers cashed on the line and the tight margin plays landed with the Roosters and Rabbitohs, but the Dragons let down the best bet of the week and Penrith trailing at the break undid the half-time play. Still well in the black with the run home underway.
The Sea Eagles get the week off. Penrith host Canberra out at Mudgee, the Sharks and Dolphins both lay double figures on the road, and the race for the eight is as tight as it's been all year. Round 22 kicks off in Townsville on Thursday night. Here's how I'm reading the opener.
Cowboys vs Roosters
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The head-to-head is thin but Roosters-leaning, six wins to three across the last nine, and it's been a low-scoring matchup at an average of just 42 points. The Cowboys did take the most recent meeting though, pinching it 18-12 at Magic Round in Brisbane earlier this year as big underdogs. The line is Roosters -5.5 with the total at 45.5.
The Roosters are flying. Since Round 14 their only slip came when they were missing a swag of players on Origin duty and copped a hiding from the Dolphins, and they've reeled off five straight since. They sit second and remain a live minor-premiership hope if Penrith stumble. The Cowboys have quietly won three of their last four, with good wins over the Panthers, away at the Sea Eagles and over the Broncos last week, and they're hanging on to eighth spot, four competition points behind the Roosters. There's plenty on it for both.
I'm high on the Roosters, I've said it all season, and I lean them to cover the 5.5. But I can't make it a play. Finals-type games with this much at stake tend to tighten up, 5.5 is a fair chunk on the road, and the market splits back it up, the Roosters have covered just two of their last five while the Cowboys have covered three of their last four. North Queensland have surprised me all year, and while I think they'll ultimately miss the eight, they keep proving me wrong, so I'm not writing them off here. Lean Roosters, no confidence play.
The under is where I want to be. The Roosters' defence at full strength has been outstanding, and it shows in the totals: bar that understrength Origin loss to the Dolphins, their games have gone under 45.5 in nine of their last ten. Neither side is finding points freely, this shapes as another tight, low-scoring affair, and I just don't see the points here. For all the reputation Townsville has for fast, open footy, the Cowboys at home have been the opposite this year, going under the line in seven of their nine home games. The caveat is the number itself is skinny, six of those nine home games have still cleared 45.5, so there's not a heap of margin at this line.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 $1.94 (1 unit)