Season Tracker
Through 23 rounds, we're sitting at +54.76 units for the season with an overall record of 114-75 from 189 Best Bets (60.32%). Round 23 went 5-3 for +1.76 units. The Raiders and Knights landing inside ten at 2.5 units and the Dragons covering the 15.5 before winning outright were the highlights, while the Panthers going down 28-12 to the Warriors in Auckland and the Storm putting 42 on the Sea Eagles both stung. Still well in the black with the run to the finals on.
The Storm have the bye. Round 24 opens with a top-of-the-table clash at CommBank Stadium on Thursday night, first place on the line. Here's how I'm reading the opener.
Panthers vs Roosters
vs 
Top of the table, Thursday night, and first place on the line. The winner takes outright top spot and the inside running at the minor premiership. Penrith are only 1.5 favourites at home, with the total sitting at 42.5.
That short line tells the story. The Roosters arrive on a seven-game winning streak and have looked the form side of the competition, while the Panthers are coming off a heavy 28-12 loss to the Warriors in Auckland, where they had no answer to a side that was ferocious defensively. It gets harder still with Isaah Yeo out on a pectoral injury, a real blow to the Penrith spine given how much of their game runs through him. Lindsay Smith moves from prop to lock to cover, and there's a chance Dylan Edwards returns from a shoulder complaint after being named among the reserves, which would be a timely lift at the back. For the Roosters, James Tedesco still hasn't shaken the ankle injury that kept him out last week, so Cody Ramsey keeps the fullback job after a composed effort in the win over the Bulldogs.
For all that, I like the bounce-back angle. Penrith were well below their standard last week and this is exactly the kind of fixture they respond to. They've owned this matchup, winning nine of the last ten, with the Roosters' most recent win in it coming earlier last year. I expect a big first half from the Panthers and fancy them to lead at the break. The Roosters, for all their form, haven't had to come from behind often on this run.
The total is the tougher read. This one has a finals feel, two sides that defend well with everything at stake, and I lean to the under at 42.5. The Roosters have gone under in six of their last eight and the Panthers in five of their last eight, so both have been trending that way. I'm not pulling the trigger on it though.
Where I land is a tight finish. A game this even, with the minor premiership and a first-week home final on the line, usually comes down to a couple of key plays. That lands me on either team to win by 1 to 10. Back the tight finish and let either side get there, the only thing that hurts it is a blowout, which I can't see in a game this even.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.83 (2 units)
