Melbourne still have a slim, outside path to the eight, though I would not bet on it happening. Injuries and a stop-start season have left them chasing, but they will want to put on a show at home, and they meet a Panthers side carrying problems of its own. Penrith have lost back-to-back games and have not quite looked themselves, which reframes what once shaped as a grand final preview into something with very different stakes.
On the team news, both sides are close to their best. Melbourne welcome captain Harry Grant back from a hamstring and are freshened up off the bye, while Penrith lose Paul Alamoti to a hamstring but get Casey McLean back into the centres.
I am not keen to touch the spread. My gut says the Storm cover the 7.5 at home, and I lean that way, but I will not play it. The reason is Penrith. They will be desperate to keep pace with the Roosters and hold their place in the top two, and while dropping to third might not matter hugely in the big picture, this is exactly the sort of game they tend to lift for. So it stays a lean on the Storm and nothing more.
Where I do land is the under. This has the makings of a tight, finals-type game between two sides with plenty on it, Penrith fighting for the top two and Melbourne clinging to a pulse, and those tend to be low-scoring. The bigger factor is the weather. There is a 70 per cent chance of rain around the 8pm kick-off, which points to a greasy night. In those conditions both sides tend to put more emphasis on completing their sets and grinding through the middle than on throwing it around, and that is exactly the kind of footy that keeps a total down. Penrith have gone under in four of their last five. What keeps it to a smaller play is the Storm, who have gone over in three of their last five, the last three on the bounce, and with Sua Fa'alogo and Cameron Munster they always carry points. You can never lean too hard on a weather read either, so it is a small play in case the rain stays away.
For what it is worth, the recent form is closer than the line suggests. Over the last eight the Storm have won four and the Panthers just three, so while Penrith are clearly the better side, there is a case that 7.5 is generous, and it is another reason my lean sits with Melbourne.
Best Bet: Under 42.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Raiders vs Broncos
vs 
The Broncos' season is done, and it just got worse. Reece Walsh is out for the rest of the year with a season-ending ankle injury suffered against the Warriors, so Hayze Perham takes over at fullback and Ben Hunt shifts into the halves. Brisbane were woeful last week, hammered 40-6 by a red-hot Warriors outfit, and remarkably are not yet mathematically clear of the wooden spoon.
The Raiders cling to a faint finals pulse. They would need to win out, bank the bye and get a stack of results elsewhere, and in truth I cannot see it happening. What they do have is a reason to lift beyond the ladder: Josh Papalii has announced his retirement, so this is his final home game in Canberra, and Simi Sasagi returns from a shoulder injury, though Morgan Smithies drops out with a head knock.
The spread is simply too big to back. At 11.5 the Broncos could well hang around, but if I had to lean I would side with the Raiders, purely because they have more to play for. It stays a lean and no more.
What I do like is the over, and this is a contradictory one, so I will lay it out honestly. The fixture has gone over in seven of its last eight, the Raiders have gone over in six of their last eight, and I do not rate the Broncos' defence at all right now, while Canberra's attack has clicked into gear at times this season. Against that, the Broncos themselves have gone over just twice in their last eight, and the Friday evening slot has been a graveyard for overs this year, coming in under in nine of thirteen. So this is more a narrative call than a trend lay-down. The weather looks fine, I think the points are there, and with the Raiders likely to get the win and the Broncos carrying enough to post a few of their own, I will take the over as a small play.
Best Bet: Over 51.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Dolphins vs Eels
vs 
The Dolphins have been one of the stories of the season. Since Round 9 they have lost just twice, and they have quietly snuck into fourth as the Sharks dropped back-to-back games. From here they simply want to win out, and a little margin would not hurt given how tight things are on points differential. The problem is the number. Laying 13.5 is a big ask, especially against an Eels side that has been feisty of late.
Parramatta have won three of their last six, and only one of those losses came by more than 14 points, a 28-12 defeat to the Roosters back in Round 19. Otherwise they have been in the fight everywhere, close with the Panthers, edging the Wests Tigers and the Cowboys, and mounting a comeback against the Rabbitohs. This is a team with nothing to lose and, right now, a real willingness to throw the ball around.
On the team news, the Dolphins lose Connelly Lemuelu to a hamstring, with Max Plath coming into the starting side on the left edge. The Eels are close to unchanged, Jack de Belin returning at lock.
I cannot lay the lumber here, so on the line I lean to the Eels and the 13.5. The Dolphins are the better side and well placed, but 13.5 is a lot to give a team playing this loose, and I suspect the Dolphins will be more focused on getting their defence and their basics right than on running up a score. That said, it is only a lean.
The play is the over, and I will be upfront that it goes against the grain. The Eels have shown real willingness to open games up, 52 points against the Rabbitohs and 62 against the Cowboys in their last two, and the Dolphins can score from anywhere, having gone over in three of their last five. With Parramatta's defence still leaky, this one can crack open. The honest counters are the trends: the Friday night slot has gone under in eighteen of twenty-eight this season, with the over landing just 36% of the time, and Suncorp on a Friday night has produced only seven overs from seventeen across the last two years, an over rate of 41%. So it is a narrative call more than a trend one, and only a small play.
Best Bet: Over 51.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Knights vs Sea Eagles
vs 
Manly's season is all but over. They have lost six straight, seven of their last eight and eight of their last ten, a genuine free-fall through the back half of the year. They do get a significant lift this week with Tom Trbojevic back at fullback and Ben Trbojevic returning on the edge. The question mark is the spine: with Joey Walsh out on a jaw fracture, Clayton Faulalo shifts to five-eighth alongside Jamal Fogarty, an unproven halves pairing, so how that combination clicks is anyone's guess.
Newcastle are the form side, three straight wins after a run of three narrow losses, and they get Bradman Best back into the centres and Jacob Saifiti into the middle. They are not unscathed, though, losing Dane Gagai to a hamstring and Francis Manuleleua to concussion, two attacking weapons from either side of the field.
The line has come in to 5.5 from 6.5, a sign of money arriving for Manly on the back of Turbo's return. I think Newcastle are the better team and get the job done, and I lean them to cover, but between their own outs and Manly's freshened side there is enough uncertainty, and enough chance of early clunkiness, that I will not play it.
What I do like is the over. This fixture has gone over in six of its last seven, the Knights have posted back-to-back overs of 54 and 62, and the Sea Eagles have gone over in three of their last four. Manly will throw everything at this with Turbo back adding a real attacking dimension, and Newcastle carry the kind of firepower, Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Sharpe finding room from deep, to score from anywhere. The trends are mixed rather than one-way: Saturday afternoons have gone over in 64% of games this season, though the Knights' own home afternoon games in Newcastle sit at an even four-and-four. It stays a small play, partly because Manly held the Dolphins to 22 last week and partly because the Knights' reshuffle could take time to settle, but the over is where I land.
Best Bet: Over 50.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Rabbitohs vs Warriors
vs 
Both these sides sit comfortably inside the eight. The Warriors are still scrapping for a top-four spot and a home final, with the Roosters holding them at arm's length above, while Souths are chasing a first-week home final of their own. There is plenty riding on it, even if neither season is on the line.
The Rabbitohs were super impressive against the Bulldogs last week, covering as underdogs, and that came straight after they nearly let a big lead slip against the Eels. That is Souths in a nutshell this year: flashes of real brilliance wrapped in maddening inconsistency. They have put together back-to-back wins on four separate occasions but have never once made it three in a row, and the bookies are not tipping them to start now. Watch, too, for Latrell Mitchell, named in the reserves as he closes in on a return from a long lay-off. Their defence can leak, but the fight is clearly still there.
The Warriors have their own problems to manage. Luke Metcalf is out for the rest of the regular season with a hamstring, and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is suspended for a hip drop, so there is a wholesale reshuffle through the spine, Taine Tuaupiki to fullback, Chanel Harris-Tavita to halfback and rookie Luke Hanson at five-eighth. To their credit, the next-man-up mentality has been a feature of their season, and they simply kept working and got the job done after Metcalf went down against the Broncos.
I think either team can win this, and that shapes my whole approach. On the line I lean to the Rabbitohs and the 5.5, and on the total I lean under, with the Warriors having gone under in seven straight and Souths in two of their last three. But I am playing neither. The total is already low at 45.5, and in truth I think whichever side turns up in the right headspace gets the job done, which is not enough for me to commit to a side or a number.
Where I land is either team to win by 1 to 10. This has a finals feel, two sides with plenty to play for and little between them, and I expect it to be tight and well contested. The head-to-head backs a close one too: it has gone over in five of the last seven, though under in two of the last three, and, tellingly, the away side has won each of the last four meetings. There is just enough there to steer me off the spread and the total, so the margin is the play.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.94 (1.5 units)
Dragons vs Bulldogs
vs 
The Bulldogs have owned this fixture, winning the last six meetings in a row, and the last three of those all came by eight points or fewer. These two opened the season together in Las Vegas, where Canterbury got home by a single point and the Dragons were a little unlucky not to nick it.
St George Illawarra have quietly put together back-to-back wins for the first time this season, over the Sharks and the Wests Tigers. Across their last six they have won three and lost three, and only one of those losses was a heavy one, a 20-point home defeat to the Titans where they were well off, with the other two coming by six and eight. They stay in games. This is a side building nicely for next year, with a good young forward pack, a defence that has improved a lot, and enough to score a few. They are again without their captain Clint Gutherson this week, though, with Dan Atkinson at fullback.
The Bulldogs are the ones under real pressure. They sit outside the eight, four competition points back, and realistically need to win out to play finals. Last week's loss to the Rabbitohs stung, a second straight defeat in a game I thought they would win. Their only change is a forced one, Jethro Rinakama out for the season, which sends Bronson Xerri to the centres and Enari Tuala to the wing.
I am not touching the spread. The line is priced right at 6.5, if it were 5.5 I would lean the Dogs and if it were 7.5 I would lean the Dragons, so there is no value in the number. The total, though, I do like. The Dragons have gone under in eight of their last nine and 76% for the year, the Bulldogs in four of their last five and 62% for the year, and three of the last four in this fixture have gone under too. With this shaping as another tight, low-scoring contest, there is enough there for me to play the under.
I also like the Bulldogs to win by 1 to 12. The last three meetings have all gone Canterbury's way by eight or fewer, the Bulldogs need this badly to keep pace with the Cowboys, who bank two points on the bye this weekend, and while the Dragons have been feisty I just cannot see them getting the win. The risk to a 1-12 line is a Bulldogs blowout, and two of their last three wins did come by 14 or more, but their attack has been clunky enough at times that a tighter, grinding win feels the more likely shape. It is a margin play, so I am keeping the stake small.
Best Bet: Bulldogs to Win by 1-12 $2.75 (1 unit)
Best Bet: Under 43.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Titans vs Sharks
vs 
This is a fixture the Sharks have owned. They have won nine of the last ten meetings, and the last three have all been Cronulla victories by 30 or more, twice piling on 50-plus. Right now, though, they will take a win any way it comes. They are on a two-game losing streak, beaten as double-digit favourites on both occasions, and have gone under in three of their last four.
The Titans are in worse shape. They have lost three straight, all by 10 or more, and in their two home games in that run they failed to reach double figures on the scoreboard. They are one of the competition's more maddening sides, capable of stringing back-to-back wins together a few weeks ago and then falling away just as quickly. Their season is done.
On the team news, the Sharks are without Braydon Trindall, who dislocated his shoulder last week, so Niwhai Puru steps into the halves alongside Nicho Hynes. The boost is up front, with Addin Fonua-Blake back from suspension to reinforce a pack that should control the middle.
This shapes as a get-right spot for the Sharks ahead of the finals. They need to arrest the slide to keep their top-four hopes alive, and against a Titans side this out of sorts I like Cronulla at the 6.5. A big game from Hynes and some grunt through the middle from Fonua-Blake and company should be the difference.
I also like the over. The signs point to points: the Titans have gone over in five of their six Sunday afternoon games, and remarkably five of their six overs all season have come in this exact slot. The Sharks are Sunday specialists too, covering six of their seven Sunday afternoon games, and they have gone over in six of their eleven day games this year, a shade over 55%. The conditions are fine, I expect an open game, and while Cronulla's defence should tighten, the Titans can still put on points. So this is a double: the Sharks to cover and the over.
Best Bet: Sharks -6.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Best Bet: Over 49.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Roosters vs Wests Tigers
vs 
The line here is a whopping 24.5, which I believe is the second-biggest spread of the season, and I do not see any value in laying it. The Roosters are flying, grinding out a tough win over the Panthers last week and, a few rounds back, hanging 82 on the Cowboys. But 24.5 is an enormous number, and their record at this venue tells its own story: in their day games at Allianz across the last two years they have covered just two of six, and been beaten outright twice, including last year's 28-30 boilover to these very Tigers, who started as 12.5-point underdogs that day. So as good as the Roosters have been, I am not laying the lumber.
The Tigers are a proud club having a wretched time of it, with eight straight losses. They have been hammered along the way, by 26 to the Warriors, 32 to the Bulldogs and 46 to the Raiders, so the big number is not as far-fetched as it first looks, but they have kept their last two close and last week was the first time they had topped 13 points since Round 17. Their spine is threadbare too, with Adam Doueihi done for the season after shoulder surgery and Latu Fainu also out, so Jock Madden comes in at halfback alongside Jarome Luai.
I will be straight that this is a play against the grain of the season-long totals. The Tigers have gone under in six of their last seven, the Roosters in seven of their last eight, and both have been under teams all year. What tips me the other way is the venue and the slot. In the Roosters' day games at Allianz over the last two years the over has landed in five of six, a shade over 83%, and with fine, dry conditions forecast for Sunday afternoon and no rain about, this shapes as a free-flowing game in which the Roosters can rack up a score. The Tigers are sharp enough in attack to chip in their share too. It is a small play given the uncertainty around such a lopsided fixture, but the over is where I land.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
vs 