Season Tracker
Through 24 rounds, we're sitting at +53.34 units for the season with an overall record of 117-80 from 197 Best Bets (59.39%). Round 24 was a rare down week at 3-5 for -1.42 units. Both either-team-by-1-10 margin plays landed, the Panthers-Roosters by six and the Eels-Cowboys by two, and the Dragons won outright as we had them, but the Sharks half-time handicap and an agonising Over 46.5 in the Broncos-Warriors game, which came in on 46, both hurt. Still comfortably in the green with the finals in sight.
The Cowboys have the bye. Round 25 opens at AAMI Park on Thursday night with the Storm hosting the Panthers. Here's how I'm reading the opener.
Storm vs Panthers
vs 
Melbourne still have a slim, outside path to the eight, though I would not bet on it happening. Injuries and a stop-start season have left them chasing, but they will want to put on a show at home, and they meet a Panthers side carrying problems of its own. Penrith have lost back-to-back games and have not quite looked themselves, which reframes what once shaped as a grand final preview into something with very different stakes.
On the team news, both sides are close to their best. Melbourne welcome captain Harry Grant back from a hamstring and are freshened up off the bye, while Penrith lose Paul Alamoti to a hamstring but get Casey McLean back into the centres.
I am not keen to touch the spread. My gut says the Storm cover the 7.5 at home, and I lean that way, but I will not play it. The reason is Penrith. They will be desperate to keep pace with the Roosters and hold their place in the top two, and while dropping to third might not matter hugely in the big picture, this is exactly the sort of game they tend to lift for. So it stays a lean on the Storm and nothing more.
Where I do land is the under. This has the makings of a tight, finals-type game between two sides with plenty on it, Penrith fighting for the top two and Melbourne clinging to a pulse, and those tend to be low-scoring. The bigger factor is the weather. There is a 70 per cent chance of rain around the 8pm kick-off, which points to a greasy night. In those conditions both sides tend to put more emphasis on completing their sets and grinding through the middle than on throwing it around, and that is exactly the kind of footy that keeps a total down. Penrith have gone under in four of their last five. What keeps it to a smaller play is the Storm, who have gone over in three of their last five, the last three on the bounce, and with Sua Fa'alogo and Cameron Munster they always carry points. You can never lean too hard on a weather read either, so it is a small play in case the rain stays away.
For what it is worth, the recent form is closer than the line suggests. Over the last eight the Storm have won four and the Panthers just three, so while Penrith are clearly the better side, there is a case that 7.5 is generous, and it is another reason my lean sits with Melbourne.
Best Bet: Under 42.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
