Both these seasons are done, but do not write this one off. Brisbane arrive off a stunning comeback win in Canberra, a 34-30 result that was their second victory since Round 8, and for a side that is mathematically out they have shown plenty of fight. The Storm have lost four of their last five, yet they pushed the Panthers all the way at home last week, an eight-point loss with no shortage of effort. Two proud clubs playing for pride, and in truth, anything can happen.
On the team news, the Storm get a big one back with Jahrome Hughes returning at halfback after a hamstring, which shifts Tyran Wishart to the centres in place of Jack Howarth, done for the year with a shoulder. Brisbane are unchanged from Canberra, and this is their last home game of the season.
The Storm are 3.5 favourites, and I lean to the Broncos with the points without playing it. Melbourne have been poor on the road, covering just three of ten games outside their own patch and only two of five as an away favourite, and both these teams are dreadful against the line anyway, the Broncos 9-13 (41%) and the Storm 8-14 (36%). There is simply no conviction to be had on the spread.
The total sits at 49.5 and this is where the contradictions really pile up. The fixture has gone under in three of the last five, the Broncos have gone under in 64% of their games and the Storm in 45%, and on recent form the Broncos have cleared the total just three times in ten while the Storm have managed five. Against all that, I lean the over on pure narrative: two sides with nothing left to lose tend to throw the ball around, and I can see this one opening up. But it is a lean and nothing more.
Where I do land is either team to win by 1 to 10. I just do not see this being a blowout either way. Both sides showed real fight last week, the Broncos playing at home for the last time this year could well pinch it, and there is genuine value in them at $2.25 in the head-to-head if you want it, though it is not a strong enough spot for me to take the outright. The tighter, safer version of that read is the margin, so that is my play.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.95 (1 unit)
Sea Eagles vs Dragons
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Manly are hard to read. They snapped a six-game losing streak last week with a surprise win over Newcastle, and while they technically still have a finals sniff, they have too much to do, and a single Cowboys win, which looks likely this weekend, ends it. This is their last game at Brookvale for the season before they finish up over in New Zealand against the Warriors. The Dragons, meanwhile, looked to be travelling alright and then let a struggling Bulldogs side hang 44 on them last week. Putting a finger on either team right now is not easy.
On the team news, the Dragons lose hooker Jacob Liddle to a calf injury, which pushes Damien Cook back into the starting side, while Manly are without Tolutau Koula (ankle), opening a centre spot for Josh Feledy.
Manly are 8.5 favourites and I lean to the Dragons with the points, without playing it. From Round 13 onward the Dragons have covered in eight of their last eleven, and the only three they did not cover were the only games they lost by more than eight. They keep games close and bounce back well from poor performances, and with Manly needing only to win here, not to win big, the points look worth having. It stays a lean.
The total is 48.5, and just about everything points under. The Sea Eagles have gone under in 59% of their games and the Dragons in 73%, this fixture has cleared 48 points just once in its last seven meetings, that exception the 64-point game between them last year, and Manly's evening games at Brookvale have gone over just three of seven across the last two years. The Sea Eagles have gone over in four of their last five and the Dragons under in three of theirs, so there are contradictions, but the weight of the numbers is under. I lean that way without playing it.
Where I land is the Dragons over the first-half total of 9.5. That line looks a touch low for a side coming off a first-half shutout against the Bulldogs. Teams held scoreless in the first half this season have bounced back to double figures before the break the following week 61% of the time, and Manly have been leaking early, conceding an average of 19.2 first-half points across their last five. Put those together and 9.5 is a number I want to be over.
Best Bet: Dragons 1st Half Over 9.5 $1.75 (1 unit)
Panthers vs Bulldogs
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The Bulldogs' season is on the line. They sit ninth, they need the Cowboys to slip up, but they remain within touching distance, and a win here keeps it very much alive. The problem is the assignment: the Panthers are a side Canterbury have beaten just twice in their last ten meetings. That said, Penrith have not been travelling. They have won five of their last ten while the Bulldogs have won seven of theirs, so the Dogs are in the better recent form.
More than that, across the back half of this season we have not seen the ruthless Penrith of previous years. They remain without Isaah Yeo, out since his pec injury against the Warriors, and they have looked clunky at times without him. They have won by more than eight just once in their last five, sitting at three wins and two losses over that stretch, and they are simply not putting teams away the way they did earlier in the season. Both sides are otherwise settled, with no fresh outs of note.
I like the Bulldogs with the points. With their year on the line this shapes as a finals-type contest they will fight to keep tight, and eight and a half is a lot to give a side travelling this well against a Panthers team still finding its best. Even a narrow loss covers, and in this situation the Dogs will throw everything at it. The one caution is that Penrith are far from playing for nothing themselves: they sit second, level with the Warriors and behind only on differential, chasing a top-two finish and a home final, so they will be up for it too.
The total sits at 40.5 and everything points under. The Panthers have gone under in 64% of their games and the Bulldogs in 59%, the Panthers' last three have all gone under with none producing more than 40 points, and the Friday night slot has come in under in 66% of games this season. This has the feel of a tight, low-scoring, season-defining game. I lean under, though with nothing conclusive I am not playing it.
Best Bet: Bulldogs +8.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Titans vs Rabbitohs
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South Sydney are closing in on the finals. They sit seventh, and a win here secures a berth for the first time since 2022. They are still mathematically vulnerable, but I cannot see them missing from here. There is a potential boost too, with Latrell Mitchell named in the reserves after 12 games out, a chance of a late inclusion if he gets up.
This is also a fixture Souths own. They have won the last seven meetings in a row and have not lost to the Titans at Cbus since 2009. The only one of those seven that was close was last year's two-point Rabbitohs win, every other went their way by eight or more. The Titans, for their part, enjoyed a mid-season revival before four straight losses dropped them to 16th, though they have at least found some points in their last two. Beau Fermor is out with a rib injury, with Josh Patston back in.
The first thing I like is the Rabbitohs to cover the 10.5. Souths have an iron grip on this fixture, the conditions on the Gold Coast look fine and the track should be fast, and the Titans have kept just one of the last seven within eight points. Even allowing for how much of a roller coaster Souths have been, the history and the class difference are enough for me here.
I also like the over 53.5, and I will be straight about the two sides of it. In its favour: the Rabbitohs have gone over in 55% of their games and in two of their last three, the Titans have cleared the line in their last two with 62 and 52 points, Saturday afternoons have gone over in 65% of games this season, the conditions are good, and Souths carry serious firepower, with Latrell a chance to feature. Against it: the Gold Coast has been a graveyard for overs this year, going over in just two of nine, and the Titans are a low-scoring side at 32% over. So it is a play made with eyes open, but the attacking signs and the slot trend win out for me.
Best Bet: Rabbitohs -10.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)
Best Bet: Over 53.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Roosters vs Dolphins
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The Roosters will be stinging. Last week they were rolled by a single point by the Wests Tigers, a genuine upset that put them firmly back in their place. There are two reasons that shapes as a bounce-back spot. The Tigers did the same to them last year and the Roosters responded with a win the following week, and, more than that, this is the side that hammered them 48-10 earlier in the season, during the Origin period when the Roosters were understrength. That result will still sit with them. With a top-two finish and a home final on the line, I expect them all-out here.
The Dolphins arrive in fine shape, five wins on the trot and thirteen of their last fifteen, so this is no gimme. But I have a strong feeling the Roosters get it done.
On the team news, James Tedesco is named back at fullback and will captain the side, though he was a late exclusion last week so it is worth keeping an eye on. The Dolphins are unchanged.
The first play is the Roosters to cover the 4.5. I am high on them here, a proud side stung twice by these circumstances, back at home, chasing the top two, with their skipper back. It has the makings of a strong response.
I also like the over 47.5, and I will be upfront that the numbers argue against it. Both teams have gone under in 59% of their games, and the Saturday evening slot has come in under in 16 of 23 this season, a hefty 70%. What pulls me the other way is this fixture and this Dolphins attack. Five of the last six meetings have gone over, the last four have all sailed past 50 points, and the Dolphins have scored under 20 just twice since Round 9, both in their only real off-days against the Knights and Sharks. The Roosters defend well, but when the Dolphins get rolling they score in bunches, so I expect a high-scoring night. It is a gut-feel play as much as a numbers one.
Best Bet: Roosters -4.5 $1.90 (2.5 units)
Best Bet: Over 47.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Cowboys vs Wests Tigers
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The equation is simple for the Cowboys. Their last two games are the Wests Tigers here and the Raiders next week, they sit two points clear of the Bulldogs, and depending on how Canterbury go on Friday night, one win from here may be enough to secure a finals berth. I think they get there.
Their last outing was a surprise loss to the Eels, and having had to sit on that result right through the bye round, I expect them to bounce back in front of their own fans. It is also their first home game since the 82-12 hiding they copped from the Roosters. The team news helps: captain Tom Dearden is back from an ankle injury and star back-rower Jeremiah Nanai returns in the second row, with Jaxon Purdue shifting to centre and Zac Laybutt to the wing after Murray Taulagi was concussed. The Wests Tigers, for their part, broke an eight-game losing streak last week with a one-point upset of the Roosters. Can they back it up on the road? I doubt it, and they are without Alex Twal through concussion.
On the line I lean to the Cowboys without playing it. I expect them to win, but 12.5 is a fraction more than I want to lay against a Tigers side that just showed some fight, so it stays a lean.
What I really like is the over 52.5, and this is a fixture I circle every year. It has been a gold mine. The last ten meetings between these two have all gone over the total, it has gone under 50 points only once in that run, a lone 48-pointer back in 2022, and it averages 65.3 points across those ten games. This year's meeting produced 60, last year's two went 60 and 62, and there are 70 and 80-point games in the sample. I will be upfront that the season-long form contradicts it, both teams have gone under in 59% of their games, but I am happy to keep backing this fixture to go over until it stops paying. 52.5 looks light to me, I think it clears 60, so this is a strong historical play.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 $1.90 (2 units)
Warriors vs Knights
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The Warriors are flying. They have won their way to the top of the table off the back of two impressive away wins, over the Broncos and the Rabbitohs in back-to-back weeks, and they lead the Panthers by a point on differential in the race for the minor premiership. With games against the Knights and the Sea Eagles to close the season, both in good slots, they will fancy padding that lead. There is plenty for them to play for.
So too for the Knights. They sit in a home-final spot, but last week's surprise loss to the Sea Eagles hurt and ended their top-four hopes. A win here, with a bye to come next week, would keep their fate in their own hands and go a long way to locking up a home final, so they arrive with real motivation. This shapes as a genuine contest between two sides with plenty on it.
On the team news, the Warriors welcome Te Maire Martin back into the halves but lose Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to a collarbone injury, with Luke Laulilii coming onto the wing. The Knights are down their suspended pair of Dom Young and Tyson Frizell along with hooker Phoenix Crossland (knee), though Dane Gagai returns from a hamstring.
My play here is the Knights and the 11.5, and it is built on one very strong trend. Since Andrew Webster took over in 2023, the Warriors are 0 from 11 covering the spread as a double-digit favourite, nine and a half points or more, at home in Auckland. They win plenty of those games, six of the eleven outright, but they consistently play down to their opposition and let the underdog back in. This is a better, momentum-charged Warriors team and trends are there to be broken, but it has been far too profitable a spot to walk past, so I am against them covering once again. The Knights have not won in New Zealand since 2019, so this is about the points rather than the upset, and I am keeping it on the lighter side given how well the Warriors are travelling.
The total sits at 48.5 and I lean over without playing it. The signals conflict badly: the Warriors have gone under in 68% of their games and in four of their last five, while the Knights have gone over in three straight, and this fixture has gone under in four of its last five, the only over being the 50-point meeting earlier this year. It is a Sunday afternoon in a good slot, the Knights carry points and the Warriors' defence has been strong, but on balance I lean to a few more points than 48.5 without any conviction to back it.
Best Bet: Knights +11.5 $1.94 (1 unit)
Eels vs Sharks
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There are no changes to either run-on side this week. The Eels are done for the season but they have shown plenty of fight, and they are at home. The Sharks are still chasing a spot back inside the top four, and I think they get the job done here. At this stage of the season I would rather be on the side with more to play for, and here that is clearly the Sharks, still alive for the top four while the Eels are already out of the finals.
I am staying away from the full-time spread, though I do lean to the Sharks to cover the 6.5. The Sharks hold a healthy points-differential buffer over the Dolphins in the race for the top four, some 35 points, so Cronulla are chasing the win here rather than the margin, and the Eels have a habit of hanging around, so the full-time line does not appeal. On the total I lean to the under without playing it. The Sharks have gone under in exactly half their games and the Eels in 64%, and while both have gone over in just two of their last five, the weight sits under. It is a lean and nothing more, so I will leave it alone.
Where I do see value is the half-time handicap, and my play is the Sharks at 2.5 at the break. Cronulla were travelling beautifully and a profitable side to follow until a recent wobble, losses to the Dragons and the Raiders and some soft points conceded to the Titans last week, and I expect them to respond with a strong start and a big defensive effort. The Eels trail at half-time 64% of the time this season, and the Sharks are a strong 6-2 against the spread in this Sunday afternoon slot. The reason I want them at the break rather than at full-time is exactly that Eels tendency to fight back, they have covered three of their last five while the Sharks have not covered in their last three, so I would rather bank a fast Cronulla start than trust the margin to hold for 80 minutes. It is a narrative call, so I am keeping it light.
Best Bet: Sharks -2.5 First Half Handicap $1.87 (1 unit)
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