Season Tracker
Through three rounds, we're sitting at +15.25 units for the season. Round 3 was the toughest of the year, adding just +0.35 with four wins and four losses. The Bulldogs upset in Canberra, the Broncos beating the Storm in Melbourne, and a Rabbitohs cover that fell just short by a point all hurt. Still in the green and that's what matters early.
The form lines are starting to settle. The Panthers and Warriors look the class of the competition, the Broncos may have found something, and the bottom four are all still searching for their first win. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.
Sea Eagles vs Roosters
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The Roosters have had the edge in this matchup, leading the H2H 7-4 and winning the last three meetings. Historically this has also been a lower scoring fixture with the under hitting in 7 of 11 games and an average total of just 39.8 points. The Roosters are -5.5 with a total of 47.5.
Both teams have struggled to start the season. The Roosters were heavily beaten by the Panthers last week, conceding four tries in a short burst, while the Sea Eagles have been poor, losing both games at home including a heavy loss to the Knights.
Despite that, I still have faith in the Roosters. The Panthers are clearly a level above the competition at the moment and that loss feels more like a wake up call. This shapes as a strong bounce back spot, especially with Daly Cherry-Evans coming up against his former side. Manly look a different team without him and have struggled to control games.
On the total, I also like the under. Both teams have been conceding points, but this matchup historically trends lower scoring and there's some rain forecast which should slow things down. I'm expecting a big improvement from both teams on the defensive side of the ball. This feels like a more controlled, grinding game with the Roosters eventually pulling away.
Best Bet: Roosters -5.5 $1.90 (2 units)Warriors vs Wests Tigers
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The Warriors have completely dominated this fixture, winning all 9 meetings since 2020. However, despite that dominance, they've only covered the line 3 times and have rarely put the Tigers away by big margins. The H2H average total is 42.4 points. The Warriors are -14.5 here with a total of 47.5.
The Warriors have been the surprise packet of the season and are one of the form teams at 3-0. They're averaging 40 points per game and have been winning comfortably. They also welcome back key players this week including CNK, Pompey and Metcalf, while Boyd and Ford have been in career best form.
The Tigers started the season well but took a step back last week against the Rabbitohs. They remain largely unchanged but will be without Jarome Luai, which is a significant loss to their spine. Doueihi is also one to monitor after picking up a hamstring issue late in that game.
The big question is the number. As dominant as the Warriors have been, they have a poor record as a big favourite at home. Since 2013 they're covering just 26% of the time as a double digit favourite in Auckland and have even lost 4 of their last 5 straight up in this spot. It's often been a classic "play down to the opposition" scenario.
This does feel like a different Warriors side, and they pass the eye test, but the double digit favourite trend is hard to ignore. I don't have a strong feel on the total either, but the Warriors' attacking form should push enough points and the Tigers can score from anywhere when given space. A slight lean over with limited confidence.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)Broncos vs Dolphins
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The Broncos have dominated this matchup, winning 5 of the 6 meetings since 2023. Despite that, the favourite has only covered twice and the under has hit in 5 of those 6 games. The average total sits at just 42.7 points. Brisbane are -3.5 here with a total of 49.5.
Brisbane looked back to their best last week with an upset win over the Storm in Melbourne after a poor start to the season. I was impressed with their defensive resolve but can they do it again this week without Haas in the middle. The Dolphins were inconsistent over the opening two games but produced a strong performance in their win over the Sharks away.
A key factor is Payne Haas being ruled out. The line has already moved from -5.5 to -3.5, but I think the bigger impact is on the total and the total hasn't moved. Since 2024, Broncos games without Haas have gone over at a 77% rate, and at Suncorp that sits at 71%. His absence in the middle can open games up, particularly defensively.
I don't like the spread in this game. Both teams are hard to trust at this stage of the season and the numbers around this fixture are mixed. If forced, I lean Broncos mainly because of the current number, their H2H dominance in the battle of Brisbane and the majority of the Suncorp crowd on their side.
On the total, even though historical H2H and season to date trends favour the under, I like the over. The Haas factor, ideal forecasted conditions and both teams' attacking upside suggest points could be available. I also like how the Dolphins managed to run up a score on the Sharks and in my opinion, Brisbane look on par with the Sharks defensively.
Best Bet: Over 49.5 Total Points $1.90 (1.5 units)Bulldogs vs Knights
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An evenly matched fixture historically with the H2H split 5-5 since 2020, although results have often been lopsided either way. The under has landed in 7 of those 10 meetings with an average total of just 38.8 points. The Bulldogs are -13.5 with a total of 47.5.
The Bulldogs are 2-0 to start the season but haven't been convincing, winning low scoring games against the Dragons and Raiders with neither game clearing 30 total points. The Knights started strongly but were brought back to earth last week in a heavy loss to the Warriors.
The -13.5 line is big and I'm not comfortable taking it. Canterbury simply haven't shown enough attacking output yet to justify covering a number like this, even though they have points in them going by how they went in 2025.
At the same time, I can't trust the Knights. Without Ponga and Brown, their attack looks very limited. Across three halves of football without them, they've only managed 18 points. I'm staying away from the spread.
The total is the clearer angle. The Bulldogs are averaging just 14.5 points scored and allowing 12.0 per game, while the Knights have struggled badly without their key playmakers. Even allowing for some improvement with Sharpe back for the Knights and factoring in another couple of tries for the Bulldogs, it's hard to see this game getting into the high 40s.
Best Bet: Under 47.5 Total Points $1.90 (1.5 units)Panthers vs Eels
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The Panthers have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning the last three meetings and leading the H2H 9-5 since 2020. Historically, totals have been low with an average of 37.6 points and the under hitting in 57% of games. Penrith are -15.5 with a total of 47.5.
Penrith have started the season in incredible form. They're 3-0, have beaten three finals teams from 2025 by 20+ points, and have allowed just two tries all year. Defensively they're in a league of their own right now.
The Eels have steadied with back-to-back wins and looked solid last week, but they're still conceding points and this is a significant step up in class. That said, this is a rivalry game and Parramatta tend to lift in these spots.
The line is huge at -15.5. While the Panthers are clearly the better side, it's hard to fully trust that number at CommBank Stadium as this is the natural home for the Eels. But the way Penrith are travelling, beating finals sides by 20+ each week, I'll take a small play on it.
On the total, I lean under. All three Panthers games have gone under this season and their defensive structure continues to suffocate opponents. The main question is whether Penrith run away with it or if this stays competitive. Given the rivalry and expected effort from the Eels, a lower scoring game still looks more likely.
Best Bet: Panthers -15.5 $1.90 (1 unit)Cowboys vs Storm
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A high scoring and competitive fixture, with the Storm holding a narrow 4-3 edge since 2020. Importantly, the Cowboys have won 3 of the 4 meetings in Townsville. The favourite has covered just once in those 7 games, highlighting how tricky this matchup can be for big spreads. The average total sits at 52.1 points. The Storm are -14.5 with a total of 49.5.
North Queensland picked up their first win of the season last week against the Titans, but their defence still looks shaky. The Storm started the year strongly before being brought back to earth by the Broncos in Round 3.
While Melbourne are clearly the better side on paper and should bounce back, the number is simply too big. Townsville has historically been a tough trip and the Cowboys tend to lift at home. Home underdogs have also been strong since the start of 2025, covering at a 64% rate, which further supports taking the points here. Still, I'm not putting the spread on.
The total is the stronger angle for me. This fixture has consistently produced points and both teams have shown they can score. The Cowboys put up 30 last week and should be able to contribute again, while the Storm attack looks primed to respond after a quieter outing. With conditions generally favouring attacking football in Townsville, this shapes as a higher scoring game.
Best Bet: Over 49.5 Total Points $1.90 (1.5 units)Raiders vs Sharks
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The Raiders have had the edge in this matchup, leading the H2H 9-4 since 2020 and traditionally performing well at home in Canberra. Despite that, the favourite has only covered 23% of the time, highlighting how tight these games tend to be. The average total sits at 44.5 points. Canberra are -1.5 with a total of 46.5.
The Raiders are still yet to register a win this season while the Sharks come into this at 1-2. Both teams have been difficult to gauge. The Raiders have struggled for consistency without Fogarty, averaging just 15 points per game, while the Sharks are coming off a poor loss to the Dolphins where they faded late.
There have been minimal lineup changes and nothing that significantly shifts the number. This feels like a game where both teams are still trying to find their identity early in the season.
I don't have a strong feel here and there are no real "likes" in this game. If anything, this leans on historical trends and the spot. The Raiders have now lost three straight at home dating back to last year's finals and should be up for this, especially after being knocked out by the Sharks last season. I think the Raiders would have had this game circled in the calendar, just like the Panthers did against the Broncos in Round 1. With the Raiders yet to register a win I think they'll be well up for this and will want this game more.
On the total, I lean under. Both teams have struggled to score consistently and this shapes as a more controlled, grinding style of game, but I'm sticking with the spread as the play given the spot.
Best Bet: Raiders -1.5 $1.90 (1 unit)Titans vs Dragons
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Both teams come into this game winless and struggling to start the season. The Titans are averaging just 13.3 points per game, while the Dragons are slightly better at 18.0, but both sides have had major defensive issues. The Titans are -1.5 here with a total of 51.5.
Since 2020, the Dragons have had the edge in this matchup, leading the H2H 6-4 and winning the last three meetings. The under has also been a strong trend, hitting in 7 of the last 10 with an average total of just 42.4 points.
The Titans have looked poor in most games but were at least competitive against the Dolphins. They also welcomed back Jayden Campbell last week, who made an immediate impact.
The Dragons started games well early this season but have fallen away badly, conceding 58 points across their last 100 minutes of football. That said, Shane Flanagan is a defensive coach and I'd expect a response in that area. They're missing the Couchman brothers, which is a loss through the middle, but I still think they can hold their own in the forwards.
I don't like either side with confidence on the line, but I lean Titans at home. This is their first home game of the season and the Dragons look a bit all over the place right now.
The total is the clearer play. Both teams are struggling to score, combining for just over 30 points per game this season. Even allowing for defensive issues, it's hard to see this game getting into the 50s. With the H2H trend strongly to the under and neither attack showing much fluency, this number looks too high.
Best Bet: Under 51.5 Total Points $1.90 (2 units)