NRL Round 7 2026 Preview & Tips

Season Tracker

Through six rounds, we're sitting at +18.20 units for the season. Round 6 was a rough one, dropping 5.35 units with just two wins from eight Best Bets. The Panthers losing their first game of the season to the Bulldogs, the Cowboys storming back to beat the Broncos, and the Titans pulling off a 52-10 demolition of the Eels all worked against us. It's the kind of round that happens in this game, and we're still well in the black for the season.

The Panthers showed they can be beaten, the Tigers continue to roll, and the Storm are now four games into a serious slump. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.

Cowboys vs Sea Eagles

    vs    

The Sea Eagles have dominated this fixture over the last 10 meetings, winning 7 of those and the last five Townsville clashes in a row. The Cowboys have struggled badly in this matchup. The average total sits at 45.4. Cowboys are -4.5 here with a total of 54.5.

Both teams come into this with strong momentum. The Cowboys have won four straight and are unbeaten at home this season, while the Sea Eagles have won two in a row and remain unbeaten on the road under new coach Kieran Foran. On paper, there isn't much between these sides.

There are a lot of contradictions in this matchup. The Sea Eagles have historically dominated this fixture and have won their last five trips to Townsville, but the Cowboys' current form and home record this season are hard to ignore. I lean Cowboys here, mainly off their recent form and confidence, but it's not quite a like given how well Manly have matched up in this fixture and the uncertainty around how they track under Foran.

On the total, I lean over, but again there are enough red flags to keep it as a lean. Both teams trend towards higher scoring games and have shown they can put points on, but the number is high and there is some rain forecast which adds uncertainty. The last five H2H meetings have also all gone under this total.

Raiders vs Storm

    vs    

The Storm lead this fixture 7-3 over the last 10 meetings. The Storm have been favourites in every one of those games, but the Raiders have consistently found ways to cause upsets, including multiple wins as heavy underdogs. Historically a low scoring matchup with the under hitting in 7 of those 10 and an average total of just 39.4. Storm are -1.5 with a total of 48.5.

Both teams come into this in poor form. The Raiders snapped a four game losing streak last week with a win in Perth against the Rabbitohs, while the Storm have now lost four straight and were completely outplayed by the Warriors. The Storm are leaking points and don't look like the same side right now that we're used to seeing.

A big factor here is the Storm pack. They're without key forwards like Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Tui Kamikamica and Eliese Katoa, and that loss of size and presence through the middle has been noticeable. They simply don't have the same go forward or defensive dominance, and it's putting more pressure on their spine to create points.

There's not a strong read on the side. I lean Storm purely off a bounce back factor. They were dominated last week and that usually triggers a response, and with Hughes, Munster and Grant in the spine they still have the class to turn things around. That said, confidence is low and the Raiders are capable of competing at home.

On the total, this is where the confidence sits. This fixture has consistently produced low scoring games and everything lines up again here. The Storm's away games trend under, the Raiders are averaging just 19.2 points per game, and both teams are out of form and likely to prioritise defence.

Dolphins vs Panthers

    vs    

A small sample matchup with just three meetings since the Dolphins entered the competition. The Panthers lead 2-1, but the Dolphins pulled off a 30-12 upset in 2025 and the favourite has failed to cover in any of those three games. The under has hit in two of three with an average total of 44.7. Panthers are -15.5 with a total of 52.5.

Both teams come into this off heavy defeats, with the Dolphins also coming off a bye. Despite losing their first game of the season last week, the Panthers are still 5-1 ATS and have been the most dominant side in the competition. The big question is whether that loss sharpens them up or creates any vulnerability.

I lean Dolphins here. The line is simply too big. The Panthers have never won by more than 10 points in this fixture and the Dolphins have already shown they can be competitive. On top of that, double digit home underdogs have been covering at around 65% since the start of last season, which is a strong trend in this spot. Darwin is also a neutral venue which helps level things out slightly.

The only reason this isn't a like is the Panthers bounce back factor. They're coming off a loss and we know what this team is capable of when they respond.

On the total, I lean over. Darwin conditions can produce points with the humidity and fatigue factor, and both teams should have scoring opportunities. Three of the last five games in Darwin have gone over with an average around 51 points, and with both defences having shown vulnerability recently, this shapes as a game that can get past the number.

Warriors vs Titans

    vs    

One of the more surprising H2H matchups. The Titans lead this fixture 7-3 over the last 10 meetings and have won 3 of the last 4, including a 66-6 demolition in 2024. The favourite has struggled badly, covering just 3 of 10, while the under has hit in 7 of 10 with an average total of 44.7. Warriors are -10.5 with a total of 49.5.

The Warriors were outstanding last week in their win over the Storm, arguably their best performance in a long time. The Titans also come in off a big win, thrashing an injury hit Eels side. On paper, the Warriors are clearly the better team, but this sets up as a classic letdown spot.

A key trend stands out. Since Andrew Webster took over in 2023, the Warriors have been double digit favourites at home nine times and have failed to cover in every single one of those games. Combine that with the Titans' strong H2H record in this fixture and it's very hard to lay this number.

I like the Titans here. It's a pure trend play more than anything, but the data is strong and the number is big.

On the total, I lean over. Both teams have shown they can score and recent meetings have trended that way, with 3 of the last 4 going over this number. There is some rain forecast which adds a bit of uncertainty, but it's not enough to completely steer away from the over.

Rabbitohs vs Dragons

    vs    

The Rabbitohs lead this fixture 7-3 over the last 10 meetings and have been the dominant side, including a 40-0 win in 2025. However, the numbers show this isn't always a blowout spot. The favourite has covered at a moderate rate and the under has hit in 7 of 10 meetings with an average total of 47.3. Rabbitohs are -12.5 with a total of 52.5.

The Dragons are in all sorts at 0-6 and sitting bottom of the ladder. Their attack has been a major issue, averaging just 14.3 points per game, which is why five of their six games have gone under. The Rabbitohs, on the other hand, are scoring points but have been leaking them as well, conceding at least 18 in every game this season.

This is a tough one on the spread. I think the Rabbitohs win, but -12.5 is a big number in a rivalry game. The line feels about right given how poor the Dragons have been, so there's no real value. I lean Dragons purely on a gun to head basis as they're due to turn things around at some point, but it's not a spot I'd want to be leaning heavily either way.

On the total, this is where I have more confidence. I like the over. The Rabbitohs' defensive issues should give the Dragons opportunities. If you map it out, you can easily get this game into the mid to high 40s as a baseline, and with the way the game is being played this season, it doesn't take much for it to push past the number. The Rabbitohs have already been involved in multiple high scoring games, and if this turns into a more open contest, it can clear this line comfortably.

Wests Tigers vs Broncos

    vs    

The Broncos lead this fixture 6-4 over the last 10 meetings, with Brisbane winning the last two including a 46-24 result in 2025. Historically a high scoring matchup, with the over hitting in most recent meetings. Tigers are -6.5 with a total of 51.5.

The Tigers have been one of the hottest teams in the competition to start 2026, sitting 5-0 ATS and winning 4 of 5 games. Their attack is firing at over 31 points per game while their defence has tightened significantly. The Broncos have been inconsistent at 3-3 and are coming off a high scoring loss to the Cowboys.

Team news is a big factor here. The Broncos remain undermanned with Walsh, Hunt and Carrigan all out, which is a significant loss in both attack and through the middle. The Tigers, on the other hand, get a major boost with Luai and Taylan May returning, strengthening both their spine and edge attack.

I lean Tigers here and this may become a like leading up to kick off. They're in outstanding form, have been a money maker ATS, and are close to full strength. Up against a weakened Broncos side, this sets up well for them at home.

On the total, I lean over but with no confidence. The historical matchup screams points, and both teams were involved in a shootout last week, but both teams have actually trended under this season. Prior to last week, their combined record was heavily skewed to the under. If the Broncos tighten up defensively, this could easily fall short, but if the Tigers get on top early, it could open up quickly.

Roosters vs Knights

    vs    

The Roosters have dominated this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings. Despite that, the favourite has covered at a modest rate and the average total sits at just 41.6, with the under hitting in half of those games. Roosters are -12.5 with a total of 53.5.

The Roosters are building nicely in 2026, winning back to back games and going over in 4 of 5 matches this season. At Allianz Stadium, their games have been flying over, hitting at an 80% rate in their last 10. The Knights have also had a solid start at 4-2 but were brought back to earth in a 42-22 loss to the Tigers last week.

There are some key changes for the Knights with Dylan Brown returning, but he has had limited time alongside Sandon Smith, and that combination is still developing. Sharpe moves to fullback which adds some attacking upside, but the loss of Lucas hurts their forward pack. Overall, these changes don't significantly shift the matchup.

I like the Roosters here. They showed real signs in the second half against the Sharks, keeping them scoreless and lifting their defensive intensity. With their halves combination of Walker and DCE continuing to build, they look like a genuine contender and should have too much class across the park.

On the total, I like the over. The Roosters are consistently putting up points at home and their games at Allianz have gone over at around a 75% rate since the start of last season. Even with some defensive improvement, both teams have enough attacking weapons to contribute. The forecasted weather looks ideal for footy.

Eels vs Bulldogs

    vs    

The Eels lead this fixture 6-4 over the last 10 meetings, but the Bulldogs have won the last 3 as the balance of power has shifted. Historically a low scoring matchup with an average total of just 39.4, and the under has hit in 8 of those 10 games. Bulldogs are -13.5 with a total of 49.5.

The Eels have completely fallen away in 2026, conceding nearly 38 points per game and coming off a 52-10 loss at home to the Titans. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are coming off their best performance of the season, knocking off the Panthers 32-16, with their defence continuing to be a major strength.

This is where it gets tricky. Current form points strongly to the Bulldogs, but the historical profile of this matchup tells a very different story. The Eels have traditionally lifted for this fixture, and despite their struggles, this is the type of game they tend to compete in.

The line is massive at -13.5. While it reflects current form, it's hard to ignore that double digit home underdogs have been covering at around 61% since the start of 2025, with the under also hitting at a 65% rate in those games.

I'm staying away from the spread. I lean Bulldogs as the better team, but the number is too big given the historical trends and the nature of this rivalry.

On the total, I lean under. The historical trend is extremely strong with this fixture going under 83% of the time. That said, the Eels defensive issues make it hard to fully trust.