NRL Round 8 2026 Preview & Tips

Season Tracker

Through seven rounds, we're sitting at +20.00 units for the season. Round 7 added +1.80 with four wins and four losses across the eight Best Bets. The Roosters vs Knights over cashing comfortably at 62 points was the highlight, while the Tigers losing 21-20 to a depleted Broncos and the Rabbitohs vs Dragons total just missing were the disappointments. Slow but steady.

The Panthers continue to roll, the Bulldogs are slipping, and the Storm have now lost five in a row. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.

Wests Tigers vs Raiders

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The Raiders have dominated this fixture, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings. The favourite has only covered 38% of the time and the under has hit in 6 of those 8 games, with an average total of 43.9. Tigers are -4.5 here with a total of 49.5.

The Tigers have been one of the best ATS teams in the competition this season at 5-1, built off a strong defensive base conceding just 18.8 points per game. They're coming off a narrow 21-20 loss to the Broncos but the performance was still encouraging. The Raiders have found some form with back to back wins, including an impressive victory over the Storm.

Team news plays a role here. The Raiders are without Young and Papalii which takes some size and impact out of their forward pack. The Tigers have made a few changes but nothing that materially shifts the needle.

Both my picks contradict the historical numbers of this fixture, but call it a narrative or gut feel, I like this game. I like the Tigers here. They've been the better team overall this season and Leichhardt is a genuine advantage. They've won 7 of their last 10 at the venue and historically lift for Thursday night games here. This feels like a bounce back spot after last week's loss.

On the total, I also like the over. While both teams trend under generally, Leichhardt games tell a different story. Since 2020, totals at this venue have gone over around 67% of the time with an average of 53 points. With good weather forecast and both teams capable of contributing, this sets up as a higher scoring game than the historical H2H suggests.

Cowboys vs Sharks

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The Sharks have dominated this fixture, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. The favourite has covered 75% of the time and the under has hit in 6 of those 10, with an average total of 46.7. Sharks are -1.5 with a total of 52.5.

Both teams come into this off poor losses. The Cowboys were hammered 38-6 at home by the Sea Eagles, while the Sharks let a 22-6 lead slip against the Roosters before losing 34-22. Both sides are inconsistent, but this sets up as a bounce back spot.

The key edge here is the Sharks coming off the bye. Teams off the bye are 5-1 ATS this season (83%), and the Sharks have an excellent recent record in this fixture, covering in 9 of the last 10 meetings. Despite the Cowboys looking stronger on paper this week, the situational angle leans towards Cronulla.

I like the Sharks here. They're the better side overall and should respond after stewing on that Roosters loss for two weeks.

On the total, I like the under. While Townsville games often trend over, both teams are coming off poor defensive performances and should look to tighten things up. The historical H2H also supports a lower scoring game, with only one of the last ten clearing this number.

Broncos vs Bulldogs

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The Broncos have dominated this fixture, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings. The favourite has covered 63% of the time and the average total sits at 44.6, with results split evenly between overs and unders. Bulldogs are -4.5 with a total of 49.5.

The Broncos are grinding out wins in 2026, sitting 4-3 with five of seven games going under. They're not scoring heavily but are staying competitive. The Bulldogs are also 3-3 but just 1-5 ATS, struggling to cover as favourites despite solid defensive performances.

Injuries are a major factor here. The Broncos are severely undermanned with key outs across the forward pack including Haas, Carrigan, Walsh, Hunt and Jensen, along with no recognised hooker. There are also question marks over the fitness of Staggs and Arthars in the backline. The Bulldogs get a boost with Crichton returning, but lose Kiraz on the wing.

I lean Broncos here. They're at home and have a strong recent ATS record at Suncorp, while the Bulldogs are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 away games. That said, there are too many unknowns with the Broncos injury toll to have any confidence.

On the total, I lean under. The Broncos games have consistently trended under this season and both teams rely more on defence than attack in their current form. The under might become a like if Staggs and Arthars are named to start an hour and a half before kickoff. With both sides likely to approach this cautiously, points may be hard to come by.

Dragons vs Roosters

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The Roosters have dominated this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings. The favourite has covered 58% of the time and the average total sits at 44.0, with overs hitting in the majority of recent matchups. Roosters are -17.5 with a total of 52.5.

The Dragons remain winless at 0-7 and have struggled badly in attack, averaging just 14.0 points per game with six of seven games going under. The Roosters are trending in the opposite direction, winning 3 of their last 4 and going over in 5 of 6 games this season, with their attack starting to click.

This is the traditional ANZAC clash, and it's a game both teams lift for. The Roosters have won 4 of the last 5 ANZAC meetings, with three of those wins by 24+ points. Totals have also leaned over in this matchup.

There's added uncertainty with the Dragons following the coaching change after seven straight losses. We've seen bounce backs from teams in this spot before, and there were signs of improvement last week despite the scoreline. The introduction of Kade Reed could add some spark to an attack that has badly needed it.

I lean Dragons here. The Roosters are clearly the better side, but -17.5 is a big number in a rivalry game with a team desperate for their first win and coming off a coaching change.

On the total, I like the over. The Roosters are consistently scoring points and have gone over in four straight games. Historically, this matchup produces points and conditions look ideal. If the Roosters get to 30+, the Dragons should contribute enough to push this over the line.

Warriors vs Dolphins

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This fixture is evenly split 3-3 since the Dolphins entered the competition, but it has consistently produced tight, low scoring games. The under has hit in 5 of 6 meetings (83%) with an average total of just 43.0, and the last four matchups have all been decided by 4 points or less. Warriors are -7.5 with a total of 49.5.

The Warriors are 5-2 this season and coming off a win over the Titans, but it was another example of them failing to put a team away and allowing a late cover. The Dolphins are 2-4 but have been competitive, including a narrow 23-22 loss to the Panthers last week where they showed plenty in the second half.

There are venue trends to consider. Warriors games in Wellington over the last 10 years haven't gone over 44 total points and all have been decided by 8 points or less from the limited sample. That aligns perfectly with the tight, low scoring nature of this matchup.

I like the Dolphins here. They've been in most games this season and their attack can trouble the Warriors, who have looked vulnerable defensively out wide. Herbie Farnworth is in elite form and can exploit those matchups. With the line moving out from 5.5 to 7.5 in the last 24 hours, there is even more value on the Dolphins in what is historically a tight contest.

On the total, I lean under. The H2H trend is strong, the Wellington data supports it, and both teams are capable of keeping this game within a grind. Conditions look good, which is the only thing holding this back from being a stronger play.

Storm vs Rabbitohs

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The Storm lead this fixture 8-2 over the last 10 meetings and have been the dominant side at home. The favourite has covered 42% of the time and the under has hit in 7 of those 10, with an average total of 42.1. Storm are -3.5 with a total of 50.5.

The Storm are in poor form at 2-5, losing 5 straight with defensive issues creeping in, conceding over 26 points per game. The Rabbitohs are trending the other way at 4-2, winning 3 of their last 4 and averaging 29.0 points per game with a dangerous attack.

This is where the situational angles come in. The Rabbitohs have never won at AAMI Park, going 0-13 at the venue. Since 2016, the Storm are unbeaten on ANZAC Day in Melbourne, with 8 of those 9 games decided by more than 4 points and 5 of the 9 going over the total. That suggests Melbourne shows up on ANZAC Day and are very hard to beat in this spot.

I like the Storm here. It feels uncomfortable given their recent form, but this is a strong historical and situational setup. With the line under a try, it fits perfectly with how these ANZAC games tend to play out. Let's be fair, this is still the Storm and they're due to bounce back at some stage, especially as they were embarrassed against the Warriors in their last game at home.

On the total, I lean over. Both teams have been involved in games trending over this season, and the ANZAC Day history supports a slight lean that way as well. With both attacks capable and defences showing vulnerability, this can push past the number.

Knights vs Panthers

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The Panthers have dominated this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings (with one draw). Despite that, the favourite has only covered 40% of the time and the under has hit in 7 of those 10, with an average total of just 39.8. Panthers are -12.5 with a total of 50.5.

The Knights are 4-3 this season but have dropped their last two after a strong start. They're still solid at home, covering at a 59% rate over the last three years. The Panthers continue to be one of the elite teams in the competition at 6-1 and 5-2 ATS, averaging over 32 points scored while conceding just 13.4 per game.

The Panthers were pushed all the way last week by the Dolphins and will be better for that run, while the Knights started well against the Roosters before fading late. Historically, the Panthers have controlled this matchup, with the Knights' only win coming against a depleted Penrith side during Origin time of the year.

I lean Panthers here. They're clearly the better team and should bounce back strongly, but -12.5 is a big number on the road. We've seen plenty of big home underdogs cover this season, which keeps this from being a stronger play.

On the total, I lean over. Both teams have been involved in higher scoring games this season, but the historical matchup trends under which creates some hesitation. There are enough attacking weapons on both sides to push this number, but the conflicting trends keep it as a low confidence lean.

Sea Eagles vs Eels

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This fixture is evenly split 5-5 over the last 10 meetings, with the favourite covering 50% of the time. The over has hit in 7 of those 10, with an average total of 47.4. Historically, there hasn't been a strong edge either way, but the home side has won 8 of the last 10 meetings which is worth noting. Sea Eagles are -7.5 with a total of 53.5.

The Sea Eagles come into this on a three game winning streak, piling on 118 points across those games. Since Kieran Foran has taken over, they look like a completely different side, particularly defensively where they have tightened up and are allowing just 14 points per game in that span. The Eels snapped back to form with an impressive 38-20 win over the Bulldogs, but they remain inconsistent and are still dealing with key injuries.

Manly are without Tom Trbojevic which is significant, but they've still shown enough over the past few weeks to suggest they can get the job done here. The Eels' away record is poor, covering just 30% of their last 10 on the road.

I lean Sea Eagles. They're the more settled side right now, in better form, and back at home where they'll be up for this after not winning there yet this season. The Eels were impressive last week, but backing that up on the road is a different challenge.

On the total, I lean under. While the Eels' games tend to go over due to their defensive issues, Manly's recent defensive improvement under Foran is hard to ignore. If Manly control the game, this could stay lower than expected despite the high total line.