Fremantle rank 15th for defender concede at -4.5% — handballs at -10.6% (18th) and tackles at -19.8% (18th) are the main negatives. Blakey's prediction of 109 is 2.8% above his season average of 106, recent form running ahead of what the matchup suggests.
Luke Ryan (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 107 · Avg: 108
Sydney rank 14th for defender concede at -3.9% — marks at -13.8% (16th) the key negative for Ryan's intercept marking style. Goals at +12.3% (4th) and tackles at +6.5% (5th) are genuine positives. His prediction of 107 is 0.9% below his season average of 108.
Caleb Daniel (Kangaroos v Magpies) · Pred: 100 · Avg: 104
The best defender matchup in the primetime pool. Collingwood rank 2nd at +8.3% — kicks at +8.3% (3rd), handballs at +12.4% (1st), marks at +13.8% (3rd). Daniel's disposal-heavy, handball-forward game is perfectly suited to those stats. His prediction of 100 is 3.8% below his season average of 104, some form concern, but the matchup provides meaningful uplift. Favoured on matchup.
Callum Mills (Swans v Dockers) · Pred: 104 · Avg: 102
Fremantle concede handballs at -10.6% (18th) and tackles at -19.8% (18th) — the same negatives that apply to Blakey. Mills's prediction of 104 is 2.0% above his season average of 102, form carrying him through. CBA access provides his floor.
Jordan Clark (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 99 · Avg: 98
Against Sydney, marks at -13.8% (16th) is the main negative, with tackles at +6.5% (5th) and goals at +12.3% (4th) on the positive side. Clark's prediction of 99 is 1.0% above his season average of 98. Reliable disposal accumulator.
Dan Houston (Magpies v Kangaroos) · Pred: 96 · Avg: 101
Faces the same Kangaroos matchup as Daicos — kicks at -12.7% (18th), marks at -10.1% (15th). Houston's prediction of 96 is 5.0% below his season average of 101. The depth pick at the base of the defensive line.
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Midfielders
Isaac Heeney (Swans v Dockers) · Pred: 127 · Avg: 127
Fremantle rank 17th for midfielder concede at -3.7% — marks at -21.0% (17th) the most damaging stat. The model backs his season average of 127 against the matchup, with tackles at +10.3% (3rd) the genuine positive. Premium output regardless of draw.
Nick Daicos (Magpies v Kangaroos) · Pred: 114 · Avg: 140 · Tagged by Finn O'Sullivan
The tag brings Daicos from a potential 140+ down to 114. North Melbourne rank 18th for midfielder concede at -5.8% — a further negative. Still earns selection on ceiling alone; when O'Sullivan's tags fail the upside is enormous.
Luke Parker (Kangaroos v Magpies) · Pred: 111 · Avg: 115
Collingwood rank 11th for midfielder concede at -0.6% — effectively neutral. Kicks at +3.0% (5th) and marks at +11.1% (3rd) are genuine positives for Parker's disposal-and-mark game. His prediction of 111 is 3.5% below his season average of 115.
Luke Davies-Uniacke (Kangaroos v Magpies) · Pred: 109 · Avg: 110 · Tagged by Ed Allan
Same Magpies matchup as Parker — marks at +11.1% (3rd) a positive. Ed Allan's tag record is mixed — he failed to contain Taranto in R16 (171 pts). LDU's prediction of 109 is 0.9% below his season average of 110. Worth backing the tag to fail.
Andrew Brayshaw (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 106 · Avg: 105
Sydney rank 13th for midfielder concede at -2.1% — marks at -13.0% (15th) the notable negative. Kicks at +2.5% (7th) and handballs at +3.4% (5th) mild positives. Prediction of 106 is 1.0% above his season average of 105.
Caleb Serong (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 105 · Avg: 106
Against the Swans, the same marks negative applies alongside the kicks and handballs positives Brayshaw benefits from. Prediction of 105 is 0.9% below his season average of 106. The Dockers midfield pairing provides both volume and upside.
Chad Warner (Swans v Dockers) · Pred: 103 · Avg: 100
Fremantle suppress opposition midfielder marks harder than almost any team — -21.0% (17th) — the same negative Heeney faces. Warner's prediction of 103 is 3.0% above his season average of 100, form doing the heavy lifting. Tackles at +10.3% (3rd) is the genuine positive.
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Rucks
Luke Jackson (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 118 · Avg: 122
Sydney rank 9th for ruck concede at -1.5% — effectively neutral. Goals at +66.5% (4th), handballs at +6.5% (6th) and tackles at +5.6% (9th) are mild positives. Sean Darcy managed out — Jackson is the undisputed #1 Fremantle ruck and gets all the premium minutes. Clear first pick.
Brodie Grundy (Swans v Dockers) · Pred: 115 · Avg: 111
Fremantle rank 16th for ruck concede at -12.5% — small sample. Marks at +10.4% (6th) and tackles at +9.1% (7th) are genuine positives within that. Handballs at -20.4% (17th) the main negative. Grundy's prediction of 115 is 3.6% above his season average of 111 — the marks and tackles positives doing real work.
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Forwards
Kangaroos forwards (vs Magpies) hold the best matchup — Collingwood rank 7th for forward concede at +1.9%, kicks at +6.0% (2nd), marks at +5.8% (4th). Magpies forwards (vs Kangaroos) are next — 12th overall at -1.2% but neutral-to-positive on kicks and goals. Both groups are favoured over Dockers and Swans forwards who face tougher draws.
Harry Sheezel (Kangaroos v Magpies) · Pred: 130 · Avg: 134
The standout forward in the primetime pool by a wide margin. Collingwood rank 7th for forward concede at +1.9% — kicks at +6.0% (2nd), handballs at +5.6% (3rd), marks at +6.5% (4th). Tackles at -18.6% (18th) is the one caveat — the Magpies suppress forward tackle accumulation harder than any team in the competition — but Sheezel's disposal-and-mark game doesn't rely on it. When he pushes through the midfield, the Magpies rank 11th for midfielder concede at -0.5% — broadly neutral, with marks at +11.4% (3rd) remaining a genuine positive and kicks at +3.2% (5th) ticking along. Leads the primetime forward line.
Jy Simpkin (Kangaroos v Magpies) · Pred: 95 · Avg: 97
Against Collingwood, kicks at +6.0% (2nd) and marks at +5.8% (4th) apply just as they do for Sheezel. Simpkin's run-and-carry game suits a matchup that rewards disposal volume. When he pushes through the midfield the Magpies are 11th for midfielder concede at -0.5%, with marks at +11.4% (3rd) and kicks at +3.2% (5th) — additional scoring channels through the middle. His prediction of 95 is 2.1% below his season average of 97.
Jordan De Goey (Magpies v Kangaroos) · Pred: 95 · Avg: 95
North Melbourne rank 12th for forward concede at -1.2% — broadly neutral. Goals at +4.3% (8th) is the mild positive. Through the midfield the Kangaroos are 18th for midfielder concede at -5.7% — a genuine negative across most stats, though goals at +31.5% (3rd) is eye-catching if De Goey drifts through the centre in scoring situations. His prediction of 95 matches his season average exactly. The best forward in the Magpies side from a pure output perspective.
Josh Treacy (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 96 · Avg: 97
Sydney rank 15th for forward concede at -5.3% — kicks at -1.3% (10th), handballs at -4.9% (15th), marks at -11.9% (15th). Treacy's prediction of 96 is 1.0% below his season average of 97. Selected on consistent output in a draw that will make him work harder than usual.
Shai Bolton (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 95 · Avg: 99
Against Sydney, the forward numbers are soft — kicks at -1.3% (10th), marks at -11.9% (15th). Through the midfield the picture is slightly better — the Swans rank 14th for midfielder concede at -2.0%, with kicks at +2.6% (7th) and handballs at +3.0% (5th) providing some avenue when Bolton pushes up the ground. Bolton's prediction of 95 is 4.0% below his season average of 99. Selected on season average and forward versatility.
Murphy Reid (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 91 · Avg: 96
Sixth forward in the primetime pool with the same Sydney draw. Through the midfield the Swans are 14th for midfielder concede at -2.0%, with kicks at +2.6% (7th) and handballs at +3.0% (5th) — modest positives when Reid pushes through. His prediction of 91 is 5.2% below his season average of 96. Depth selection.
Charlie Curnow (Swans v Dockers) · Pred: 83 · Avg: 77
Fremantle rank 17th for forward concede at -6.1% — the most negative forward matchup in the primetime pool. Despite that, Curnow's prediction of 83 is 7.8% above his season average of 77, recent form carrying him well above his baseline. The ceiling play of the group — if the game opens up, Curnow is the most likely to go massive despite the tough draw.
