Defenders
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Saints v Bombers) · Pred: 132 · Avg: 132 · Recent5: 144
NWM's prediction is driven entirely by form. His five-game average of 144 is 9.1% above his season figure of 132, and the Bombers present a neutral-to-negative matchup, eighth for defender concede at -0.9% across 12 games. The Bombers are actually one of the most defensive units in the competition for goals conceded to opposition defenders (#17/18, -32.5%), but marks conceded at +12.0% (#4) is a genuine positive for the way NWM scores. He is in the team on form alone.
Lachie Ash (Giants v Dockers) · Pred: 129 · Avg: 127 · Recent5: 128
A season-average selection that holds despite a negative matchup. The Dockers rank 16th for defender concede, -14.9% across 12 games, with handballs at -25.1% (#18) and kicks at -10.8% (#14). These are significant headwinds. Ash's predicted score of 129 sits only 1.8% above his season average, meaning the model is largely backing his volume rather than the matchup. His recent form of 128 is consistent with his season output.
Lachie Whitfield (Giants v Dockers) · Pred: 127 · Avg: 123 · Recent5: 122
Whitfield shares the same Fremantle matchup data as Ash: Dockers 16th for defender concede at -14.9%. The prediction of 127 is 2.9% above his season average of 123. Like Ash, this is a selection against the run of the matchup, justified by consistent season-average volume from a player who generates disposal numbers regardless of the opposition. His recent form is slightly below his season figure.
John Noble (Suns v Magpies) · Pred: 120 · Avg: 121 · Recent5: 124
The standout matchup for defenders this week. The Magpies rank fourth for defender concede, +3.0% across 13 games, with kicks at +2.3% (#4), handballs at +7.4% (#3) and marks at +6.5% (#5). Every relevant accumulation stat is trending above league average. Noble's prediction of 120 is essentially in line with his season average; the matchup advantage is offsetting a marginal form dip.
Josh Daicos (Magpies v Suns) · Pred: 113 · Avg: 115 · Recent5: 106
Daicos comes in against a poor Suns matchup for defenders, 13th at -8.6% across 14 games, with marks at -18.3% (#16) and kicks at -10.4% (#13). His recent five-game average of 106 is 8.0% below his season figure. His predicted score of 113 sits 1.7% below his season average, reflecting both the form dip and the negative matchup. Selected on depth of season average at the position.
Darcy Wilmot (Lions v Cats) · Pred: 112 · Avg: 106 · Recent5: 131
The form pick of the defensive group. Wilmot's five-game average of 131 is 23.8% above his season figure of 106, the largest form upswing among the defenders. The Cats rank 12th for defender concede at -6.9% across 14 games, a negative matchup, but Wilmot's recent output is strong enough that the model selects him regardless. His predicted score of 112 is 5.7% above his season average, reflecting the recent surge offset by the matchup.
James Sicily (Hawks v Demons) · Pred: 111 · Avg: 109 · Recent5: 103
The Demons rank sixth for defender concede, +0.5% across 14 games, effectively league average, with marks at +4.0% (#6) as a mild positive. Sicily's five-game average of 103 is 6.3% below his season figure of 109. His prediction of 111 sits 1.7% above his season average, lifted by the mildly favourable matchup despite the recent form dip. A depth selection to close out the defensive line.
Midfielders
Nick Daicos (Magpies v Suns) · Pred: 140 · AI: 151 · Avg: 140 · Recent5: 149
The CBA adjustment is doing significant work here. Daicos's base prediction of 140 lifts to an AI score of 151 due to his 79% season CBA rate, well above the 45% league average. His five-game average of 149 is 6.9% above his season figure. The Suns rank fifth for midfielder concede at +5.5% across 14 games: goals conceded to midfielders at +36.5% (#2) and tackles at +13.2% (#2) are the standout positives. Both form and matchup are pointing the same direction.
Bailey Smith (Cats v Lions) · Pred: 138 · AI: 148 · Avg: 143 · Recent5: 140
Smith's base prediction of 138 lifts to 148 via CBA adjustment; his 77% CBA rate is among the highest in the competition. The Lions rank dead last for midfielder concede, 18th at -17.2% across 11 games, with kicks at -19.6% (#18), handballs at -14.8% (#16), marks at -17.6% (#15) and tackles at -17.0% (#17). Brisbane are the most restrictive team in the competition for opposition midfielders across every relevant stat. His selection is driven entirely by his elite CBA rate and strong season average; the matchup is a genuine headwind.
Isaac Heeney (Swans v Bulldogs) · Pred: 129 · AI: 138 · Avg: 127 · Recent5: 134
Heeney's base prediction of 129 lifts to 138 via CBA. His five-game average of 134 is 5.6% above his season figure of 127. The Bulldogs rank 11th for midfielder concede at -1.4% across 14 games, a neutral matchup. Marks at +5.1% (#6) provides a mild positive, while handballs at -8.5% (#14) is a slight negative. Recent form lifting a neutral matchup.
Zach Merrett (Bombers v Saints) · Pred: 128 · AI: 131 · Avg: 128 · Recent5: 140
The Saints rank second for midfielder concede, +8.5% across 11 games, with kicks at +5.0% (#5), handballs at +13.3% (#2), marks at +13.1% (#5), tackles at +9.5% (#5) and goals at +12.2% (#6). Every relevant stat concedes above league average. Merrett's five-game average of 140 is 9.5% above his season figure, meaning both form and matchup are pointing the same direction. His relatively moderate CBA rate (55%) keeps the AI lift modest compared to Smith and Daicos.
Noah Anderson (Suns v Magpies) · Pred: 119 · AI: 130 · Avg: 122 · Recent5: 141
Anderson's five-game average of 141 is 15.6% above his season figure of 122, the strongest recent form in the midfield group. His 84% CBA rate, highest in the competition, produces a significant AI adjustment from 119 to 130. The Magpies are a headwind: 14th for midfielder concede at -4.8% across 13 games, with tackles at -16.6% (#16) and goals at -41.8% (#18). The CBA boost and elite recent form override the matchup difficulty.
Marcus Bontempelli (Bulldogs v Swans) · Pred: 120 · AI: 128 · Avg: 123 · Recent5: 121
Bontempelli's CBA adjustment (76% season rate) lifts his score from 120 to 128. The Swans present the toughest matchup in the midfield group this week, 17th for midfielder concede at -16.9% across 13 games, with marks at -28.9% (#17), tackles at -21.6% (#18) and kicks at -14.0% (#16). Sydney are one of the most restrictive teams in the competition for opposition midfielders. Bontempelli's selection is a function of his high CBA rate and strong season average against a genuinely difficult matchup.
Lachie Neale (Lions v Cats) · Pred: 118 · AI: 128 · Avg: 119 · Recent5: 111
Neale's 80% CBA rate drives the AI adjustment from 118 to 128. The Cats rank eighth for midfielder concede at +2.6% across 14 games, a mild positive, with tackles at +15.9% (#1) as the standout stat. His five-game average of 111 is 6.1% below his season figure of 119. The recent form dip is the main concern, offset by the high CBA rate and a broadly neutral matchup.
Rucks
Max Gawn (Demons v Hawks) · Pred: 124 · Avg: 125 · Recent5: 129
The Hawthorn matchup is restrictive for rucks, 15th at -14.8% across 11 games, with hitouts at -23.7% (#17) and marks at -25.1% (#15). Gawn's predicted score of 124 sits 0.6% below his season average of 125, reflecting the matchup discount. His five-game average of 129 is 3.3% above his season figure, providing a mild form uplift that partially offsets the tough matchup. Selected as the highest-rated ruck available after the matchup adjustment.
Luke Jackson (Dockers v Giants) · Pred: 117 · Avg: 122 · Recent5: 121
Insufficient round-by-round data for the Giants against rucks limits the positional concede analysis. The matchup shows effectively league average across all ruck stats. At the overall level the Giants rank 11th for kicks conceded. Jackson's five-game average of 121 is consistent with his season figure of 122. A consistent season average selection against a matchup where limited data makes assessment difficult.
Forwards
Harry Sheezel (Kangaroos v Power) · Pred: 133 · Avg: 134 · Recent5: 128
Sheezel's prediction of 133 sits 0.6% below his season average, reflecting a near-neutral Power matchup, eighth for forward concede at -0.2% across 13 games. Goals conceded to forwards at +5.2% (#3) is a notable positive, while marks at -7.7% (#12) is the main negative. His five-game average of 128 is 4.0% below his season figure. He tops the forward predictions on season average depth alone.
Izak Rankine (Crows v Eagles) · Pred: 114 · Avg: 109 · Recent5: 95
Rankine's prediction of 114 sits 4.2% above his season average; the Eagles rank sixth for forward concede at +0.1% across 11 games, with marks at +8.3% (#4) and tackles at +4.7% (#4) as genuine positives. His five-game average of 95 is 13.0% below his season figure, a significant form dip. The matchup advantage is lifting a player who is currently underperforming his season average. Overall the Eagles rank #17 for goals conceded in the competition, suggesting a game where forward scores may be lower than usual despite the positional concede data.
Bradley Hill (Saints v Bombers) · Pred: 113 · Avg: 105 · Recent5: 106
The Bombers rank second for forward concede, +9.2% across 12 games, with goals at +18.1% (#2), kicks at +8.6% (#2) and marks at +17.8% (#2). Second-worst in the competition for every key forward accumulation stat. Hill's prediction of 113 is 7.2% above his season average of 105; the matchup explains all of it. His recent form of 106 is consistent with his season output.
Kysaiah Pickett (Demons v Hawks) · Pred: 109 · Avg: 116 · Recent5: 118
The Hawks rank 16th for forward concede, -9.8% across 11 games, with marks at -17.1% (#18) and kicks at -11.4% (#16). Hawthorn concede marks to forwards at the second-lowest rate in the competition. Pickett's predicted score of 109 sits 6.3% below his season average of 116. The matchup penalty is the entire story. His recent form of 118 is strong, making this a case of an in-form player in a poor matchup. Selected on season average depth.
Toby Greene (Giants v Dockers) · Pred: 107 · Avg: 104 · Recent5: 111
Greene's prediction of 107 is 2.8% above his season average, but the Fremantle matchup is the most restrictive for forwards in the squad this week, 18th at -16.9% across 12 games, with goals at -32.8% (#18), kicks at -21.2% (#18) and marks at -16.7% (#17). The Dockers are the best team in the competition at restricting opposition forwards across every relevant stat. His five-game average of 111 is 6.8% above his season figure. A form-driven selection despite a significantly negative matchup.
Christian Petracca (Suns v Magpies) · Pred: 106 · Avg: 109 · Recent5: 97
Petracca's five-game average of 97 is 10.7% below his season figure of 109. The Magpies rank third for forward concede at +2.8% across 13 games: kicks at +8.1% (#3) and marks at +8.9% (#3) are genuine positives. His predicted score of 106 sits 3.1% below his season average, reflecting the form dip outweighing the mild matchup advantage.
Connor MacDonald (Hawks v Demons) · Pred: 104 · Avg: 96 · Recent5: 97
MacDonald's predicted score of 104 sits 8.3% above his season average of 96, the largest percentage lift in the forward line, driven by the matchup. The Demons rank 14th for forward concede at -9.3% across 14 games, which is actually a negative matchup. The lift appears to come through the broader scoring functions rather than the positional concede data alone. His recent form of 97 is consistent with his season output.
Total predicted: 2,824 points.