This is The Stats Lab Starter Squad to Beat for Round 18, our benchmark 18-man GameDay Squad picked across the full round. We're proud to partner with GameDay Squad and to put up a side for coaches to chase every week.
Quick word on every call, position by position
Hooker
Marshall-King — locked in as the Dolphins' starting rake now, and that is what makes him pickable. Since taking the No. 9 full time from Round 12 he has averaged 53 across his last four, with a high of 68 against the Roosters when he crossed for a try. He is banking 40-plus tackles most weeks, so the floor is steady enough for a hooker.
Middle
Terrell May — set and forget, and arguably the most reliable middle in the squad. He is averaging 69 for the season and 75 across his last five, hasn't dropped below 50 all year, and has posted 74, 74 and 76 in his last three. The minutes have climbed too, close to a full 80 in each of his last three. You pick him without a second thought.
Willison — confirmed to start at lock, which is exactly what you want to hear. That is the role where he does his damage, with 79, 80 and 72 in his games there this year. Ignore the 9-minute cameo in Round 17 as he was ruled out early after failing a CAT2 HIA. With the No. 13 jumper locked in he carries one of the higher ceilings among the middles.
Smith — dropped a 92 starting at lock against the Titans in Round 16, miles clear of anything he manages at prop. With the starting lock role now locked in he is a genuine points play, not the coin flip he looked when playing at prop.
Edge
Egan — quietly one of the steadier edges going, averaging 57 for the season and 62 across his last five, all on big minutes in the Dragons' second row. It is a tackle-heavy floor, up around 40 to 53 tackles a game, with the odd try to lift him. Round 17 was a quiet 35, so I am backing a bounce-back.
Lucas — flying, and the form makes this an easy call. He is averaging 62 for the season but 72 across his last five, off the back of an 80 in Round 17 built on 51 tackles and a try. He has the try-scoring in him too, so the ceiling sits near 100 as his 97 against the Eels showed. The matchup helps as well, with the Dolphins giving up around 52 to left-edge forwards this year against a league mark of 47, right where he lines up.
Halves
Hynes — the ceiling play at halfback, and what a ceiling it is. He opened the year with a 102 and has the goal kicking to pile on points fast. The form has cooled, back to 49 across his recent games, and he has recently returned from injury, so there is some risk attached. But few players in this squad can go as big, and he is the swing-for-the-fences option.
Fogarty — the safe half alongside Hynes' upside. He is averaging 58 for the season and does his damage through the boot, regularly clearing 500 kicking metres and chipping in with the goals and try assists. He posted 60 last week and was the first-choice kicker again with Garrick out of the side. The matchup is a real plus too. The Eels are leaking around 61 to opposing halfbacks this year, well up on the league average of 51, so the floor is steady with genuine upside on top.
Centre
Doueihi — the value pick of the whole squad, and it is all about eligibility. He carries centre status in GDS but is playing halfback for the Tigers, so you are getting a No. 7's workload and point-scoring in a centre slot. He is averaging 68 with games of 102, 94 and 85 already this year, and he tops the squad on projection for exactly that reason. The one flag is he is only just back from injury, with a tidy 52 in his single game since returning, so treat the ceiling as the reward and the floor as a small unknown.
Farnworth — set and forget, and one of the best centres in the game right now. He is averaging 69 for the season and 74 across his last five, with a monster ceiling shown by the 114 he put on the Panthers. He has crossed for a try in eight of his 13 games and racks up huge tackle-break numbers, up around 10 a game lately. Elite floor, elite ceiling, an auto pick.
Wing
Naufahu — read past the season average of 30, which is dragged down by weeks he spent in the reserves. Every time he has actually started on the wing he has gone big, with 65, 72 and 74 in those three games.
To'o — the boom-or-bust winger, and the swings are wild. He has two 95s in him this year but has also dipped under 30 half a dozen times. The recent form is up, averaging 60 across his last five, and the try-scoring can flip a quiet game into a big one in a heartbeat. High risk, high reward.
Fullback
Edwards — gets the fullback nod and he is a set-and-forget for me. He is averaging 58 for the season with a rock-solid floor built on his running game and a stack of tackle breaks, up to 10 in a game. The ceiling is there too, a 100 against the Knights back in Round 8. Round 17 was a quieter 39, so he is due, and he is exactly the type you do not fade.
Bench
Twal — named to start for the first time since Round 13, and that is the green light this pick needed. When he is out there he is a big base play, averaging 65 with a high of 87 and tackle counts that regularly push past 50. He has been out of the side for a stretch so there is a slight rust risk, but a confirmed start makes him a strong base option with real tackle-count upside.
Toby Couchman — Mister Consistent for the Dragons, and a really steady inclusion. He is averaging 60 for the season and 62 across his last five, does a job through the middle with 40-plus tackles and good metres, and just posted 77 against the Raiders. Reliable base.
Brown — the ceiling weapon of the group, and the upside is huge. He has a 102 in him this year and does plenty through his kicking game, but the floor is shakier, with a 33 last week. Boom-or-bust, but if you want a half with a big ceiling to chase points he fits the brief nicely.
Fuller — his season average is dragged down by time in the reserves, but as a starter he has gone 44, 47, 50 and 69, and he is coming off that 69 in his last outing. The matchup stacks up too, with the Knights giving up around 58 to opposing fullbacks this year against a league average of 49, so there is more upside here than the season number suggests.
Trbojevic — a genuine X-factor, and you know the ceiling with Turbo. He is averaging 53 for the season with a high of 79, and when he is right he can take over a game on his own. The recent form has been steadier than spectacular, but few players here can go as big on their day.
