Terrell May — the engine of the Tigers pack. He's averaging 67, hasn't dropped below 50 in a game all year, and the 90 against the Bulldogs is the peak. With only one try all season it's a pure base game, but that base is elite and it turns up every week. Model of reliability.
Toby Couchman — a steady prop who's quietly been excellent. He's averaging 62 with a rock-solid base off 40-plus tackles a game, headlined by an 83 against the Panthers, and he's coming off a 78 at the Warriors last week at a full 80 minutes. No try-scoring, but the floor is reliable and the minutes are trending the right way.
Edge
Olakau'atu — flying, and one of the first picked. He's averaging 74 across his last five with eight tries for the year, including a 101 against the Tigers, and he's crossed in three of his last four. He gets the full 80 every week and the attacking output has stepped up another level lately. Set and forget on this form.
Lucas — one of the form edge forwards in the competition and the standout of this squad. He's averaging 64 for the year, has only dropped below 50 points twice all season, and has cleared 60 in every game since Round 11. The tackle count sits around 45 a game and he's added the try-scoring on top. He's in as hot a run as you'll find, and he's the first name in the pack this week.
Halves
Cleary — the easiest lock in the squad. He's averaging 74, head and shoulders the best half you can pick this week, and the goal kicking gives him a floor nobody else in the position can match. He's cleared 90 five times this year. He's coming off a rare 27 last week, his lowest of the season, but I wouldn't read much into a one-off. You don't overthink Nathan.
Hynes — genuine boom-or-bust in him. He's averaging 62 with the goal kicking adding a reliable chunk every week, and the ceiling is enormous, a 108 against the Dolphins a fortnight ago his high for the year. He came back to earth with a 41 last week, which is the risk you take, but when the Sharks click he's one of the highest scorers going.
Centre
If Adam Doueihi escapes suspension at the judiciary this week, he comes into the squad at centre in place of Staggs.
Timoko — the value pick at centre on a 42 projection, and there's a real case for a boom game here. He's averaging 39 with the output cooling into the 30s lately, but he's shown the ceiling with a 65 against the Storm and a 61 on the Eels earlier in the year. The appeal this week is all about the matchup. The Raiders have won their last couple and are charging towards the finals, and they come up against a Tigers side that looks in self-destruct mode. Wests have leaked an average of 63 to the position over the last five weeks and conceded five tries in that time, with Adam Pompey back in Round 19 the only centre they've kept off the board. The attacking upside is clearly there, so with Timoko flying under the radar he shapes as a really strong POD this week.
Staggs — a ceiling play at centre coming off his best game of the year, an 80 against the Panthers with a try and ten tackle breaks. He's averaging 45 so the floor has been shaky, but he's got eight tries for the season and genuine game-breaking ability. The Broncos look back to their best after that Panthers game and Staggs is one of the leaders driving it, and the matchup only adds to the appeal. He has a clear size mismatch against Jaxon Purdue this week, and over Purdue's last five games at left centre the opposing right centre has averaged 53 against the Cowboys. The Broncos are on a roll and this shapes as an entertaining one, so if they keep rolling Staggs could go boom. The upside is well and truly there.
Wing
Faalogo — flying, and the fact he's getting the fullback job for the Storm is exactly why he scores like this. He's averaging 61 for the season with a high of 100, and the huge run metres, line breaks and try involvement come week after week. He's coming off a quieter 39 last week, but the body of work is strong.
Jenkins — the try machine. He's averaging 60 with a high of 97, and the ceiling is enormous, with multiple doubles this year and even a four-try haul back in R3. He can go quiet, but you're picking him for the upside, and there's a heap of it.
Fullback
Ponga — the fullback nod and an auto pick. He's averaging 66, one of the best scoring fullbacks in the game with the goal kicking, running game and try-scoring all in the mix. He's coming off back-to-back returns of 66 and 62 and has a high of 96.
Bench
Aitken — a real boom edge. His base alone is worth around 50 in an 80-minute outing, and he adds try-scoring and line-break upside on top of that. In his four full 80-minute games this season he's averaged 68, so with another one looming he shapes as a set-and-forget this week.
Ryan Couchman — the other Dragon in the squad, and he's settled into the lock role where he's been consistent. He's averaging 56 with a 74 against the Knights his best, and he came off a 69 at the Warriors last week. The big tackle numbers give him a safe base, and the matchup is a real tick this week. The Titans have leaked an average of 65 to the lock position over their last five games, including a 91 to Seyfarth, a 92 to Smith and a 65 to Loiero, none of them among the biggest names in the position. The base is there whatever happens, and against a side bleeding points to locks he could add a bit more attacking output on top.
Campbell — one of the higher-upside halves on the board, though his form has tailed off a little since shifting to five-eighth. He's averaging 55 in the No. 6 as he works out the combination with Zane Harrison, down on the 70 he was posting at halfback alongside Lachlan Ilias earlier in the year. He draws the Dragons this week, and with them more competitive of late the 78 he hung on them back in Round 4 may not be on the table again. Even so, the ceiling is very much there, eight tries and a 101 already to his name, and he stays one of the highest-upside halves you can pick this weekend.
Tedesco — I'm expecting a big game here. He owns one of the biggest ceilings of any fullback going, a monstrous 118 already on the board this year to go with a season average of 56. He's missed the last couple of weeks after failing an HIA during Origin, so he comes into this one fresh, and I'm expecting him raring to go. The upside is enormous.
Walsh — similar story to Staggs, the Broncos got things right last week and Walsh was a huge part of it, coming off an 89 against the Panthers built off nearly 500 kicking metres with a goal chipped in on top. The matchup backs it up too, with the Cowboys leaking an average of 57 to the fullback position over their last five games. His last three read 73, 49 and 90, and that 49 is his lowest score since Round 13, so there's floor to the form now as well as ceiling. He looks fresh and ready to drive the Broncos' run at the finals. The narrative's there and the numbers back it up. Wheels up on Walsh.
