Welcome to this week's Squad to Beat for the GameDay Squad Starter competition. Here's the full 18-man squad, with a quick word on every call, position by position.
Hooker
Brailey — a dependable hooker, and the big selling point is his minutes. He's a consistent 80-minute hooker, averaging 52 with the tackle volume the backbone of it, and a high of 71. He chips in with the odd try assist out of dummy-half, and the floor is rock solid. Honestly, this was a coin flip with Harry Grant. Grant didn't quite look himself last week back from injury and could still be a touch underdone, whereas Brailey showed his form with a 55, so he gets the nod here, though it's a genuine toss-up between the two.
Middle
Haas — no overthinking this one. He's arguably the best middle forward in the game and you pick him on that alone. He's averaging 62 and coming off a season-high 90 last week, so he's in prime form. Set and forget.
Lindsay Smith — a middle whose ceiling is all about minutes, and he's holding the lock role now. When he plays at lock he's averaging 67 a game, and he's backed that with a 67 and a 57 in his last two. If the workload holds, the upside is significant.
May — a genuine points machine up front, and he's in great touch. He's averaging 66, one of the best-scoring middles going, and he's coming off a 70 and a 66 in his last two, with a high of 90. The base from his tackle and run-metre work is as good as any front-rower in the competition.
Edge
Ryan Couchman — a strong edge with a big recent peak. He's averaging 60 with a career-high 98 to his name and 71 across his last five. The output's dipped a touch with a 45 last week, but the base from his lock role is excellent and the ceiling is proven.
Olakau'atu — the premier edge forward of the season, and he still starts despite a couple of quieter weeks. He's averaging 65 with a monster high of 101, but the attacking stats have tailed off lately, just seven tackle breaks, one try and one line-break assist across his last two, where earlier in the year he was piling up seven to nine tackle breaks a game and scoring tries for fun. The matchup is worth a note too. On the surface the Dragons are leaking 54 to right edge forwards this season, but with Hamish Stewart stationed on that left edge they've allowed just 46, so it's a tougher draw than it first looks. There's an argument to fade him, but the ceiling is simply too high, you'd be watching through your fingers if you left him out. Some risk, but too good to leave out.
Halves
Cleary — the easiest lock in the squad. He's averaging 75, comfortably the best half you can pick, with the goal kicking giving him a floor nobody else can match. He's cleared 90 plenty of times this year with a high of 100. Auto pick.
Hynes — genuine boom, and one of the highest scorers in the game when he's on. He's averaging 65 with a big goal-kicking base and a huge ceiling, a 108, a 105 and a 96 all in a recent purple patch, with a high of 108. He's cooled with a 55 and a 49 in his last two, but the top end when the Sharks click is as high as any half going.
Centre
Farnworth — the standout centre in the squad and an easy inclusion, and he's just reminded everyone why with a 98 last week. He's averaging 66, one of the best in the position with an enormous ceiling, a monstrous 114 to his name and double-digit tackle breaks a feature of his game. Class pick.
Iro — a risky pick at centre, but the matchup is the big appeal this week. He's averaging 42 with a boom-or-bust profile, a couple of 80s to his name but plenty of low scores in between. What makes him tempting is the draw against the Eels. They allow 45 to opposing left centres on the season, but that jumps to just over 52 when Will Penisini lines up at right centre opposite them, and they've conceded three 50-plus scores to the position in the last three weeks alone. Only twice all year has a left centre been held under 44 with Penisini on that edge. He can pull off the odd defensive read, but he's prone to drifting out of position and leaking line breaks down that side, so there's genuine attacking upside on offer for Iro here.
Wing
Faalogo — in cracking touch, and the fact he's getting the fullback job for the Storm is exactly why he scores like this. He's averaging 62 with a high of 100, and a 75, a 69, a 65 and a 58 across his recent games. The big run metres, line breaks and try involvement come week after week.
Jenkins — the boom-or-bust winger with a big ceiling. He's averaging 54 with a high of 97, but he's gone quiet lately with a 29 in each of his last two. You're picking him for the upside, and it's still there, but the recent form is a concern.
Fullback
Ponga — an elite fullback and one of the best scorers in the game. He's averaging 62 with the goal kicking, running game and try-scoring all in the mix, and a high of 96. He had a rare quiet one last week with a 20, but he rarely stays down, and the ceiling is always there. A premium pick.
Bench
Preston — the boom edge with real try-scoring upside, and he's in consistent form with a 78, a 68, a 60, a 61 and a 58 across his last five. His overall average of 52 undersells it, because in games where he plays 65 minutes or more he averages 55, and he owns a high of 83. There's variance in his game, but the ceiling makes him worth it.
Toby Couchman — a strong middle with a good base, though there's been a notable drop-off lately. He's averaging 58 for the year with a high of 83, but setting aside the Dolphins game he left with an HIA, his last two have brought a 51 and a 48. It's not really a minutes issue, he's still getting close to his usual 60, so it looks more like the long season starting to catch up with him. He's still worth his place in the squad, but he may not quite hit the heights we saw earlier in the year.
Campbell — a playmaker with a big ceiling. He's averaging 60 with a monster high of 110, and the goal kicking and running game give him multiple ways to score. He's steadied lately with a 52 and a 50 in his last two, and the top end is as high as any half in the squad.
Tedesco — a risky pick, and the selection picture is murky. He was ruled out late last week with an ankle injury but has been named to start this week and is expected to return. This close to the finals I can't see the Roosters risking him unless he's right, they need him fit for their finals run, so the naming is an encouraging sign. The risk is a late withdrawal, and hopefully we know before Friday night. If he does pull out, there's a pivot to Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow in the same game, or other fullbacks in the later fixtures. The narrative appeals too. They were beaten in a big way by the Wests Tigers last week, they were smashed 48-10 by the Dolphins back in Round 15 (albeit with a NSW Cup-strength side during the Origin period), and they're still a decent chance of sneaking into the top two for a home final in the opening week of the finals. Put all that together and I expect them to bounce back hard here. He's a monstrous talent with a 118 on the board this year, so if he's named and right there's a big game on offer. A genuine risk, and I might yet talk myself out of it, but that's where it sits.
Edwards — a reliable fullback anchor, albeit in a lean patch. He's averaging 56 with the huge run metres every week doing the heavy lifting, and a high of 100. He's had a quiet couple with a 35 and a 33, but he rarely stays down long and the base is dependable.
