Season Tracker
Through 26 rounds, we're sitting at +44.09 units for the season with an overall record of 124-93 from 217 Best Bets (57.14%). Round 26 was a rough one, 2 from 10 for -8.25 units. The Rabbitohs covering the 10.5 and the Titans-Rabbitohs over both landed, but the trend plays all broke: the Cowboys-Wests Tigers fixture went under for the first time since 2022, the Warriors finally covered a big home line under Webster, the Dolphins upset the Roosters, and the Dragons were held scoreless in the first half. Still well in the green heading into the final regular round.
The Knights have the bye. The final regular round opens at Accor Stadium on Thursday night with the Bulldogs hosting the Broncos. Here's how I'm reading the opener.
Bulldogs vs Broncos
vs 
Both these teams' seasons are done, so this one is all for pride, and there are no notable changes to either squad. The Bulldogs had their year ended last week with a 24-10 loss to the Panthers, but I took plenty out of that performance. They hung tough, had their periods on top, and their defence stood up to hold a quality Panthers side to 24. The Broncos, by contrast, were blown out of the water by the Storm, a game I had tipped to be close and which was anything but. So I am leaning far more on what the Bulldogs showed than on anything the Broncos did.
I like the Bulldogs to cover the 10.5. It is a lot of points to lay, and I will not pretend otherwise, but off the back of that defensive effort, and against a Broncos side heading nowhere and leaking points, I am happy to back Canterbury to win this by double figures. I am keeping it light, though, because the play flies in the face of the fixture history: the Broncos have won eight of the last nine meetings between these two. Perhaps the pressure comes off them away from Brisbane, I am not sure, but I trust the Bulldogs' current form far more than I trust Brisbane's right now, so I am siding with recent form over the head-to-head.
The total is where it gets contradictory. Everything in the form points under: both teams have gone under in 61% of their games, the Bulldogs are averaging just 41.7 points a game across their fixtures and the Broncos 47.6. And yet I lean the other way. The Broncos have conceded 30 or more in each of their last five games, their defence has not impressed me at all, and a side with nothing to lose tends to throw the ball around rather than go down wondering. So I lean the over, even as the numbers argue against it, and it stays a lean.
Best Bet: Bulldogs -10.5 $1.94 (1 unit)
