Season Tracker
Through 15 rounds, plus the Origin II selections, we're sitting at +56.23 units for the season, an overall record of 77-40 (65.81%) across 117 selections. Round 15 added +4.40 with four wins from five Best Bets, the Sharks stealing one 10-8 in Auckland on the +9.5 the standout and the Rabbitohs vs Broncos under the only miss, Souths posting 48 in a 54-point game. Origin II then went 2-2 for +2.35, the Queensland head to head and Jojo Fifita's anytime try both landing in a 44-24 result while the first try and first-half plays missed. Still well in the green.
Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons
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This one is even on paper over the long run, the sides splitting the last 10 meetings 5-5, but the favourite has still covered six of those and the under has landed in six, with a low average of 41.6 total points across the run. The most recent meeting bucked the trend, Newcastle running away 44-10 in Wollongong. The Knights open this one at -12.5 with the total at 49.5.
The form gap is wide. Newcastle sit 8-5 and have been one of the best teams in the competition against the line at 9-4, scoring 28.5 a game and conceding 26.0. The Dragons are 1-12, just 3-10 against the line, and the numbers tell the story of a struggling side, scoring 14.2 a game and leaking 32.8. I rate their forward pack and they can hold their own through the middle, but the back five leaks and that is where most of the damage gets done against them.
I lean Newcastle to cover here. The Dragons covering just three times in 13 this year is hard to back into, and the Knights have been excellent at handling business as favourites. That said, -12.5 looks a fair number rather than a generous one, so it's a lean and not a confidence play on the line.
On the total, I lean over. Newcastle's games have been some of the highest-scoring in the league, averaging 54.5 total points, and at 49.5 there is a case. The problem is the other side of it. The Dragons are a 4-9 under team, this fixture has averaged just 41.6 over the last 10, and Friday nights have gone under 11 of 18 across the season. Too many signals pulling the other way, so I'm staying off the total.
The play I've landed on is the half-time line, and I'll be upfront that this one is narrative as much as numbers. Start with the last time these two met. Newcastle were 32-0 up at the break in Wollongong and ran out 44-10 winners, but the second half was only 12-10 their way. The damage was all done before half-time, and a beating that lopsided early is the kind of thing a side carries with them.
Since that day the Dragons' first halves have steadily improved. They were 12-0 down to the Panthers and 14-6 down to the Warriors, but the last fortnight has turned, 14-2 up on the Broncos and 12-6 up on the Sharks at the break. The Knights have gone the other way over the same stretch, with no real half-time lead to speak of in their last three: level with the Titans, 12-10 up on the Eels, and 12-14 down to the Storm. For all their second-half scoring power, Newcastle have been slow out of the blocks lately.
Across the full season the Dragons have stayed within 5.5 at the break in 8 of their 13 games, and the recent shape is the encouraging part, covered in each of the last two. Both teams are coming off the bye and I don't see the half-time picture shifting much. If Dylan Lucas and Kalyn Ponga back up from Origin there may be a few weary legs to target, but I don't think that moves this market at this stage. This game is desperately hard to find any value in, and the Dragons getting 5.5 at the break is the best of what's on offer. A small play at the price.
Best Bet: Dragons +5.5 at Half-Time $2.02 (1 unit)That's the opener sorted. The rest of my picks for the round, a Best Bet on all games, are up now for premium members. Come join us if you'd like the full card.