Season Tracker: -3.80 units, 12-15 (44.4%)
Week 4 went two from five. Brenton Strange was the standout, turning eight targets into seven catches for 95 yards against a Bengals defence that keeps giving it up to tight ends, and Jordan Love's two touchdowns landed again. The three misses were all close or unlucky. Mahomes finished 12 yards short in Las Vegas, Jeremiyah Love was 3.5 yards short on 14 carries after taking 21 the week before, and Malik Willis never had the game to work with, Miami running just 39 offensive snaps all afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Three plays in this one, and the shape of the game drives all of them. Tampa Bay are 8.5 point underdogs with the total at 47.5, which points to the Buccaneers throwing to keep pace and Dallas comfortable enough to control it on the ground.
Chris Godwin is the pick of them. He has cleared 30.5 in three of his four games, going 40, 46, 25 and 31 receiving yards, and the usage is heading the right way: seven targets last week on 88% of the offensive snaps, the most of any Buccaneer with Daniels under centre. Dallas are conceding 168.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the ninth most generous mark in the league. The risk is that Daniels is a rookie making only his second start and threw for just 148 last week, so the team yardage may not be there to go around. Against that, this Dallas side can be thrown upon and the Buccaneers should be chasing the game, which means more of it going through the air than on the ground.
Javonte Williams on the other side is a usage bet. He has gone over 2.5 receptions in three of four, with five, three, two and then five, and the targets have been steady at five, four, three and five. He is clearly the lead back, taking 58 of Dallas's 78 offensive snaps last week against 16 for Tyler Goodson. The matchup is the best part of it: Tampa Bay are allowing 6.3 receptions a game to running backs, third most in the league. Even with Dallas expected to lead and run, the check-down work is there.
Jalon Daniels is the speculative one and it needs saying plainly. One real start, 148 yards from 27 attempts with a touchdown and two interceptions, and eight carries for 55 yards on top of that. This line asks for a sizeable jump on the only benchmark he has, from a quarterback who takes off as readily as he throws. The case here is the game script rather than the player: a side 8.5 points down in a game lined at 47.5 has to put the ball in the air. I lean to his over 7.5 rushing attempts as well. He ran it eight times last week, and a rookie who cannot find a target quickly tends to take off, with a couple of designed runs likely on top of that.
Best Bets
- Chris Godwin over 30.5 receiving yards @ $1.90 (1 unit)
- Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions @ $1.77 (1 unit)
- Jalon Daniels over 182.5 passing yards @ $1.90 (1 unit)
