Season Tracker: -3.29 units, 2-6 (25.0%)
Monday night was a write-off. All four bets on the Giants card went down, and the Jaxson Dart props were gone almost before the game started, with Dart lasting seven snaps and five pass attempts before Jameis Winston took over. That killed both his props in one go. Malachi Fields drew six targets but caught only two of them, and Cam Skattebo was held to 36 yards from 12 carries as the Giants were beaten 28-6. Four from four is a poor night in isolation, but two of them came down to a single injury, and that injury, along with how badly the Giants offence functioned afterwards, will have had a bearing on the other two. That's the part worth carrying into this week.
Atlanta Falcons v Green Bay Packers
Neither of these teams has covered a spread this season, and both look like they're in some trouble. The Falcons have had quarterback issues and welcome Michael Penix back this week, though it feels like he's being rushed back a little. They do need him. The Packers scraped past the Jets away in poor conditions, and some crucial penalties cost them against the Vikings. The discipline has been a problem across both games rather than a one-off, with 26 penalties for 231 yards conceded so far.
The line has come in from 6.5 to 4.5 and the total has dropped to 43. I don't like a side here. I'd almost have to tease the Falcons up to +10.5 and pair them with something else, but I certainly can't take the Packers at this number. The offensive line is banged up, there are injuries on the defensive line, and there's a committee at running back with Jacobs unavailable. I'm staying away from the running backs in this one entirely.
Everything else flows from that. If the ground game can't function, the throws have to come from somewhere. Love managed only 145 last week but had 387 the week before, and Watson, Golden and Kraft is a decent trio to be spreading it around. There are more pass catchers here I like than I'm taking. After Monday night, when Jaxson Dart went down early and took four of our bets with him, I'm not building a card that sits entirely on one quarterback staying upright. Lighter and less tied to a single narrative is the approach this week.
The Falcons gave up just the one passing touchdown to the Steelers, then three to the Panthers last week with Bryce Young throwing them. I'm higher on Love than I am on Young as a quarterback, so that's a defence I'm happy to attack through the air. The state of the Green Bay offensive line points towards a pass-heavy night, because if this side is going to score it's more likely to come through the air than on the ground. Love has thrown two touchdowns in each of his first two games this season, so he's hit this number in both.
Drake London has been quiet with 29 and 51 yards in the opening two weeks, but that's been with backup quarterbacks throwing to him. Cooper Rush had the job against the Steelers, then it was a combination of Rush and Jack Strand against the Panthers. The Penix combination tells a different story. Across the nine games Penix started last season, London averaged 10 targets, 6 receptions and 90 receiving yards, and went over 65.5 in five of them. He's due a decent game. Penix coming back off injury is the reason to keep it light rather than the reason to leave it alone.
Tucker Kraft is where I think the coverage leaves a gap. The Falcons secondary will be looking at Christian Watson first, and that should open up looks underneath. Kraft cleared this line in Week 1 against Minnesota before going quiet against the Jets, but he was on the field for 98% of Green Bay's offensive snaps last week for just three targets. The role is there.
Best Bets
- Jordan Love 2+ passing touchdowns @ $1.86 (1 unit)
- Drake London over 65.5 receiving yards @ $1.90 (1 unit)
- Tucker Kraft over 46.5 receiving yards @ $1.90 (1 unit)
