Season Tracker: -3.00 units, 14-16 (46.7%)
Thursday night went two from three in Dallas, where Tampa Bay won 24-16 as 9.5 point underdogs. Chris Godwin took three catches from three targets for 37 yards to clear his line, and Jalon Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 to get there in his second start. Javonte Williams was the miss. He had both of his catches in the first half and could not find a third after the break, finishing on two receptions from three targets, one short.
Five player props this week, across five games.
Arizona Cardinals v Detroit Lions
Michael Wilson has cleared this twice in four, going 56, 18, 89 and 95 receiving yards, so the line is set off a profile that has changed in the last fortnight. He took 17 targets for 11 catches and 89 yards against the 49ers, then 13 targets for 7 catches and 95 yards against the Giants. That is 30 targets in two weeks, and it is a different player to the one who saw seven in each of the opening two games.
The role underneath it is about as secure as it gets. He has been on the field for 85%, 94%, 93% and 94% of Arizona's offensive snaps across the four games, so he is not coming off for packages and he is not splitting work. Whatever this offence does, it does with him out there.
Detroit are the matchup to attack. They are conceding 207.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the third most generous mark in the league. The total here is 54.5, the joint highest on the board, and Arizona are 5.5 point underdogs at home, which is the shape you want behind a receiver over. The risk is plain enough: 74.5 is a number he only reached in the last two weeks, so this is a bet on the recent usage holding rather than on his season to date.
Best Bet
- Michael Wilson over 74.5 receiving yards @ $1.90 (1 unit)
Atlanta Falcons v Baltimore Ravens
Justice Hill has cleared 8.5 receiving yards in 10 of his last 14 games and three of four this season, going 10, 12, 0 and 22. Lamar Jackson is out and Tyler Huntley takes over, and that should help rather than hurt him. Huntley throws short and checks down, so the back is in the pattern more often, not less.
Week 4 is the evidence for it. When Huntley came on for the injured Lamar Jackson, Hill posted two receptions for 22 yards, his best receiving game of the season. He did not need a bigger role to produce, just a quarterback looking for him.
Atlanta are where this gets interesting. They are second in the league for targets allowed to running backs at 8.25 a game and third for receptions at 5.75, and the most-targeted back in each of their four games has cleared this number. Jaylen Warren went for 27, Chuba Hubbard 11, Kaleb Johnson 10 and Alvin Kamara 35 last week, with Kendre Miller adding 10 in that same game. The honest counterweight is that Atlanta give up only 4.78 yards a reception to the position and sit 19th for yards allowed at 27.5 a game, so this is a bet on volume rather than damage. Two catches gets most of the way there and three clears it.
Best Bet