NRL Best Bets: Dolphins vs Roosters

Season Tracker

Heading into the preliminary finals we're sitting at +46.11 units with an overall record of 129-96 from 225 Best Bets (57.33%).

The first of two preliminary finals, and the first grand final spot on the line. The Dolphins host the Roosters at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night, the rested qualifying-final winners hosting the side that fought through from the semis. Here's how I'm reading it.

Dolphins vs Roosters

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Every bit of the narrative points to the Dolphins. They are the form team of the competition, riding an eight-game winning streak into their first preliminary final, and they carry a star-studded backline full of finishers. It is a genuine fairy tale. But I keep coming back to the Roosters. I think they are the more complete, more experienced team, and this stage of the season rewards exactly that.

Yes, the Dolphins have beaten the Roosters twice this year, but the context matters on both. The first, a 48-10 result in Round 15, came against a second-string Roosters outfit over the Origin period, a side that looked closer to New South Wales Cup than first grade. The second, a comprehensive 26-12 win in Round 26, was the very game Sam Walker was injured in, and while the Dolphins were excellent that day, it was the result that ultimately steered the Roosters onto the long road they have navigated to get here.

On the team news, Walker returns at halfback just 24 days after ankle surgery, a remarkable comeback that pushes Daly Cherry-Evans back to five-eighth and Hugo Savala to the interchange. That gives the Roosters an experienced, settled halves pairing for the big stage, and it sits on top of a bench stacked with finals nous in Connor Watson, Angus Crichton, Nat Butcher and Spencer Leniu.

On the line I lean to the Roosters, both to win outright and to cover the 3.5. I am simply higher on this side than most: under the bright lights, against a Dolphins team chasing a maiden grand final, I trust the more experienced squad to manage the big moments. It is not quite a confident enough call to lock in as a headline play, but it is clearly where I sit.

The total is 45.5 and I lean under. The history is firmly on that side, prelims have gone under 63% of the time across the last eight years, and I think this one comes down to defence. The Roosters can certainly pile it on, as they did with 46 last week against the Sharks, but the total points on the board in their tighter games tell the truer story for this market: just 31 combined in the qualifying final against the Panthers, 38 against the Dolphins in Round 26, only 18 in the Round 24 meeting with the Panthers, and 38 in a grind against the Bulldogs. Two evenly matched sides with a grand final on the line tends to mean a tight, low-scoring affair, so the under is where I land.

Where I do land with a play is the margin. With two sides this evenly matched, and both my leans pointing to a tight, low-scoring game, I do not see this blowing out in either direction, so either team to win by 1 to 10 is my bet.

Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.87 (2.5 units)