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Heading into the preliminary finals we're sitting at +46.11 units with an overall record of 129-96 from 225 Best Bets (57.33%).
The second preliminary final, with the last grand final spot up for grabs. The minor premier Panthers host the Knights at Accor Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Here's how I'm reading it.
vs 
The Panthers are the better team here and, in my view, are headed to the grand final. They have had a long time to prepare, they have been in this exact position many times over, and the experience gap is stark. The Knights were wooden spooners as recently as last year, and only a handful of their side, the likes of Tyson Frizell, Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai, have really tasted finals football of this magnitude.
The big question mark over the game is Nathan Cleary's fitness. He has been named to start, but he is carrying a foot injury and there is genuine uncertainty about how freely he will move, with reports he is unlikely to even kick his conversions. Penrith have not been especially forthcoming about it either, so it remains a real unknown heading in.
It is that Cleary cloud that keeps me off the spread and the total as plays. I lean the Panthers on the 10.5, and with this being a Sunday afternoon game where I think Penrith are capable of coming out and blowing the Knights off the park, I actually lean the over too. But with the doubt around Cleary, neither is more than a lean.
Where I do land is the Knights' team total to stay under 15.5, and it comes down to Penrith's defence, which has been outstanding. Across their last five games, not a single team has scored more than 14 points against them: the Roosters managed just 12 in the qualifying final, the Wests Tigers 10 in Round 27, the Bulldogs 10 in Round 26, the Storm 14 in Round 25 and the Roosters 12 back in Round 24. That is elite, sustained defensive form. The Knights have plenty of attacking weapons of their own, but the real question is whether they can crack a Panthers defence travelling like this, and I am backing the wall to hold. I will be honest that Newcastle will want to throw the ball around, and the afternoon conditions make me a little nervous, so I am keeping the stake light, but the Knights to be held under 15.5 is my bet.
Best Bet: Knights Team Total Under 15.5 $1.96 (1.5 units)
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