Season Tracker
Heading into the decider we're sitting at +42.11 units with an overall record of 129-98 from 227 Best Bets (56.83%). The preliminary finals went 0-2.
Grand Final: The Last 8 Years
The history splits on result and line. Over the last eight grand finals the higher seed has won five of eight (63%), but the favourite has covered the spread just three of eight (38%), so the underdog has covered more often than not, and totals are a coin flip at four over, four under. For what it's worth, the last side to reach the decider from 7th or 8th, the 8th-placed Cowboys in 2017, were beaten 34-6 by the Storm.
Roosters vs Knights
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Full credit to the Knights. I had the Roosters meeting the Panthers here, but Newcastle hung tough, got the job done when it mattered and earned their place, and they will bring a wall of fans to Sydney expecting a boilover. I love the story. I am also a realist, and the Roosters have been the more complete team all year.
The 7.5 is a fair line from both points of view, but I am all over the Roosters, and it comes down to how both sides have played through the year. The Roosters have saved their best for the back end, outstanding in dismantling the Sharks and then backing it up with an impressive win over the Dolphins to book their spot. Experience only adds to it. A number of this side have been here before, with seven of their squad having played in a grand final against just one of the Knights, and Trent Robinson has won three premierships as head coach. He knows how to prepare a team for the big one, and a halves pairing of this quality should be able to steer them around the park. I expect the Roosters to play fast and post a decent score.
The numbers say grand final favourites do not cover often, so I am happy to be upfront that I am going against that trend. But the better and higher-seeded side usually gets it done on the day, and I think this is where Newcastle's run ends.
For the Clive Churchill, I am on Sam Walker. He was class on return from injury last week, he has been excellent all season with an outstanding Origin campaign behind him, and I expect him to pull the strings here. Tedesco or Cherry-Evans are the obvious risks, with DCE's farewell carrying a narrative pull, but Walker is my call. And on the left edge, I like Salesi Foketi to score: he has been making strong runs right through the finals, up against Jermaine McEwen, whose defence has had its lapses this year.
Best Bet: Roosters -7.5 $1.90 (2.5 units)
Second Best Bet: Sam Walker Clive Churchill Medal $4.50 (1 unit)
Third Best Bet: Salesi Foketi Anytime Try Scorer $5.50 (0.5 units)
