NRL Round 12 2026 Preview & Tips

Season Tracker

Through 11 rounds, we're sitting at +44.60 units for the season. Round 11 was a perfect one, banking +11.25 with eight wins from eight Best Bets. The Warriors blowing the Broncos away, the Sea Eagles thrashing the Tigers, and the Knights covering the 9.5 on the Gold Coast were the standouts, and for once there were no painful misses to dwell on. Easily the best round of the year.

Round 12 is a short one. Origin Game 1 lands on Wednesday night and the byes for Eels, Knights, Roosters, Sharks, Panthers, Broncos and Wests Tigers leave us with just five games, all of them missing bodies to rep duty. The Dragons are still searching for a win, the Storm have steadied without ever convincing, and the Warriors have surged into the class of the competition. Five games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.

Raiders vs Dolphins

    vs    

There's not a lot of history here, with only five meetings carrying spread data since the Dolphins entered the competition, but what there is has been wild. These two average 60 points a game against each other and the over has hit in four of the five, an 80% clip. The favourite has covered three of five. Canberra are -2.5 with a total of 48.5.

Both teams are missing players due to Origin duties. The Raiders lose Ethan Strange and Hudson Young, while the Dolphins are without Tabuai-Fidow, Cobbo, Flegler and Plath. The Dolphins come in on a three game winning streak and chasing a club record fourth straight, and they've been one of the most improved sides in the competition since that Round 5 loss to Manly. On paper they're losing more, but the momentum is all theirs.

I lean the Raiders, and only just. At home they're the marginally safer side, and the big swing for me is Herbie Farnworth being out injured. Before that news I was on the Dolphins, because Canberra have been wildly inconsistent and the Laurie and Sanders halves pairing is unproven. With Farnworth gone and the game at GIO, I'll take the home side, but there's no strong feel on the line.

The total is where I want to be. The Dolphins are missing a stack of attacking weapons, the Raiders are rolling out an untried halves combination, and both teams trend heavily to the under this season. The hesitation, and the reason this is only a small play, is this fixture has been a points fest. I'm fading the history because the personnel out this week genuinely changes the equation, but I'm sizing it accordingly.

Bulldogs vs Storm

    vs    

The Storm have owned this fixture, winning nine of the last 10 meetings, the favourite has covered seven of those and the total has split evenly at five overs and five unders, averaging 43.3 points. The Bulldogs are -2.5 at home with a total of 47.5.

The team news favours Canterbury. The Bulldogs only lose Crichton to Origin, while the Storm are missing Munster, Grant and Loiero, a much bigger hit with two of them out of the spine. Melbourne have looked sharper the last fortnight, but it's worth remembering this is a side only two games removed from a seven game losing streak. The Bulldogs, for their part, can't really be trusted as favourites on a five game skid of their own.

If forced on the line I lean the Bulldogs, purely because their key playmakers and forward pack are intact while Melbourne's spine has been picked apart. That's enough to nudge me towards the home side at a short price, even with the 9-1 H2H record screaming the other way. It's a lean, not a play.

The under is the bet. Both teams have been inconsistent at scoring points all year, and that job gets harder for Melbourne without their Origin stars steering the ship. Add a wet weekend forecast in Sydney, which I'll always lean under into, and the Friday night football trend that's running 9-4 to the under this season at 69%.

Dragons vs Warriors

    vs    

This one has been a low scoring grind historically. The favourite has covered just three of the last 10 meetings. The under has landed in seven of 10, and the average total sits at only 36.0 points. The Warriors are laying -14.5 with a total of 50.5.

Anyone who's read these blogs this season knows I'm a Dragons fan and I've backed them more than I should have. I'm not doing it again. Well, maybe one more time. It was never loyalty driving those picks, I genuinely thought there was value, but they've been terrible. The young forward pack is doing a decent job, the problem is the backs, who lack any inspiration in attack, and a defence that has leaked all year. Last week against Penrith was the first time they've covered since Round 1, and there were at least some promising signs.

I lean the Dragons on the spread. Fourteen and a half is a lot to ask any team to cover away from home, they looked better last week. The Warriors have lost Tanah Boyd for the season and don't have a reliable goal kicker for this one, so I expect them to leave some points out there. The reason it's only a lean is that the Dragons still haven't proven enough and don't pass the eye test to cover this number, even if the metrics suggest they should. The Warriors have also won three of their last five by 22 or more, and those wins came against the Storm, Eels and Broncos, all better sides than this Dragons outfit right now.

That brings me to the bet, which is the under. The Dragons' attack is the worst in the competition, the Warriors are likely to drop points through missed goals, and there's rain in the forecast that will only make scoring harder for an already out of form home side. Everything points the same way here.

Sea Eagles vs Titans

    vs    

The last 10 meetings between these two have split right down the middle, the favourite covering five of 10 and the over and under landing five apiece, with an average total of 51.8. Manly are -11.5 with a total of 50.5.

The Origin outs roughly cancel out. Manly lose Koula and Olakau'atu, the Titans are without Fa'asuamaleaui and Fifita, so neither side gains much ground there. Form is another story. The Sea Eagles have won six of their last seven and remarkably covered the spread in all seven. The Titans have dropped their last four and haven't failed to cover in back to back games all season, which they did last week.

I lean Manly on the line. They're one of the genuine form teams of the competition, scoring first in 10 of their 11 games this year and leading at the break in nine of 11, both the best marks in the NRL. The thing holding me to a lean rather than a play is the weather. Double digit spreads are hard to trust in the wet, and rain is forecast here.

The under is the bet, and it's the conditions that get me there. Beyond the rain, Manly hand a debut to Jackson Shereb on the right edge, replacing Olakau'atu who has been a real attacking weapon for them out there. Lose Koula as another threat on top of that. I think 50.5 is too high. There's value on the under.

Cowboys vs Rabbitohs

    vs    

The Rabbitohs hold a 7-3 edge over the last 10 meetings and the favourite has still covered six of 10. The under has hit in five, with the average total sitting at 45.8. The Cowboys are -3.5 at home with a total of 52.5.

The Origin outs are even, Cotter for the Cowboys and Murray for Souths, similar players in similar roles, so no edge either way there. The bigger one is Latrell Mitchell, out injured this week. He's a major loss for the Rabbitohs, though it's worth noting they got the job done comfortably without him in Round 10 against the Sharks. There's a question over whether they can do that again on the road.

I like the Cowboys -3.5 and it's my Best Bet. They were genuinely impressive last week without Dearden, a performance that surprised me. They were also embarrassed by the Eels at home in their last outing in Townsville and will want to put that right in front of their own crowd. With Latrell out and uncertainty over whether Souths can replicate that Round 10 win away from home, the Cowboys is the side I want.

On the total I lean over. Conditions up north are meant to suit a fast flowing game, and Sunday day games this season have run 12-6 to the over at 67%. The last two games in Townsville have both sailed over as well. There's also a scenario where Latrell's absence hurts Souths more than expected away from home, which would dent their attack, so I'm only leaning the over rather than playing it.