I don't trust either of these teams, and that's the starting point for how I'm playing it. What stands out is that the Titans and Bulldogs are the only two sides to have beaten the Panthers this year, the Bulldogs back in round 6 and the Titans just last week. That tells you both have a ceiling, but it also tells you how inconsistent their seasons have been, knocking off the best team in the competition and then dropping games they should be winning.
Both arrive in scratchy, hard-to-trust form, and they have more in common than not. The Bulldogs have won three of their last four, their only loss a six-pointer to the Wests Tigers. The Titans have won two of their last four, and even those results stayed close. Neither has strung together anything you would call a convincing run, which is the heart of why I can't confidently land on a winner here.
The head-to-head is just as even, the Bulldogs leading the last nine meetings 5-4. The line agrees, with Canterbury installed as just 1.5-point favourites and the total set at 47.5.
On the spread I lean the Titans with the points, but with no confidence, because this is close to a pure coin flip. The number nudging me their way is the Bulldogs' away record. Canterbury have been a different team on the road, covering just four of their last 16 away games across this season and last, and as an away favourite they are a dismal 1-10 against the line over the same stretch. The only time they covered as a road favourite in two years, they were laying 12.5 points at the Titans and won by 20. They are a far better side backing up at home than travelling as the team laying points. Add in that the Titans, fresh off knocking over the Panthers, will fancy they are on a bit of a roll, and at home with that momentum I will take the 1.5.
To be fair to the other side, and this is why it stays only a lean, the Bulldogs have plenty in their favour. The way they hung around against the Sea Eagles last week after conceding the early lead, then found a way to win 13-12, said plenty about their character, and their defence has been the better part of their game lately. Of the two I still think they are the more likely finals side, especially after where they finished last year, even with a few injuries to manage. That is exactly why I can't back either team with conviction, so the Titans and the points is a no confidence play.
I lean a touch harder on the under. Both teams have trended that way, the Titans going under in 11 of their 14 this season and the Bulldogs under in eight of theirs. The Bulldogs defence is the anchor, having not conceded more than 22 in any of their last three games. I'm not convinced their attack can push this over on its own, and a game handicapped at just 1.5 points usually points to a low-scoring arm-wrestle. The one thing against it is the track, which should be quick and in good nick, but the under has been the stronger side of these two all season.
That leaves the bet I like most, and it ties the whole game together. Look at how these two play out. Every one of the Bulldogs' last four results has landed inside 10 points, and so has every one of the Titans', their wins by five and one and their losses by two and eight. Go wider and the pattern holds, with each side managing just one win by 11 or more all season. Two low-margin sides, a line the bookies can barely split, and no team I trust enough to back outright. So rather than pick a winner, I'll play the shape of the game and take either side to win by one to ten.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.90 (2.5 units)
Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters
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The defending champions are in a lot of trouble. The Broncos have lost six straight and they haven't covered the line in any of them. For a side that lifted the trophy last year, this has been a freefall, and it's come with an injury list to match.
Brisbane are well short of full strength. Adam Reynolds is out, leaving Ben Hunt and Thomas Duffy as a makeshift halves pairing that isn't anywhere near their first-choice combination, and the problems run right through the spine and middle. They are at least coming off a bye, and on paper this is the kind of get-well game a proud club circles to drag its season back on track. I wouldn't be stunned if they found something here. But I can't back them on what they've shown and what they're missing.
The Roosters are heading the other way. They had a wobble through the middle of the season but have won two of their last three and look back on track after a commanding home win over the Sharks. For mine they are the second-best team in the competition, and against Cronulla last week the back line clicked off the back of a hard-working forward pack. When this team is on it can score in bunches, as the Dragons found out when the Roosters hung 62 on them earlier in the year. They also handled Brisbane comfortably in the reverse fixture back in round 9, leading 24-0 at the break on the way to a 38-24 win.
The head-to-head leans their way too, the Roosters up 7-3 across the last 10 meetings, though the favourite has covered just four of those 10 and the under has landed in five. The average total in the fixture sits around 48. The current line has the Roosters at 7.5 with the total set at 49.5.
On the spread I lean the Roosters to cover, but the confidence is low and it's a no bet for me. This has the feel of a get-well spot for the Broncos, the sort of week a desperate home side lifts and finds a way, so I'm not laying the points with any conviction. I also had a quick look at either team by one to ten, but the Roosters are good enough to blow this open, so that's off the table as well.
The under is the one play I like. It's a low line for a Roosters team that can score in a hurry, but they have gone under in five of their last six and that recent lean is hard to ignore. The Broncos are all over the place on totals with no real consistency either way, but for Brisbane this shapes as a do-or-die game. They need to spark a run from somewhere to keep their season alive, and a desperate side in that spot tends to throw everything into defence and try to win ugly rather than open it up. From their point of view this is a final, and finals are usually tight, low-scoring affairs. Brisbane have also gone under in four of their last five Friday night games. Put it together, a low-scoring, high-stakes grind, and the under at 49.5 is where I land.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 Total Points $1.96 (1 unit)
Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors
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This is the game of the round for me. Saturday afternoon at Suncorp, fine conditions in the forecast, two in-form sides who bring the best out of each other. It should be a cracker.
The Dolphins have been red hot. They have covered nine games in a row and won their last seven, and right now I would have them as the third best team in the competition. The form backs it up. Everything is clicking, and they roll into this one with as much momentum as anyone in the game.
The Warriors are still well in the picture, but they are starting to cop a few injuries. They are without James Fisher-Harris up front, and with Tanah Boyd sidelined, Te Maire Martin has stepped in at halfback. Luke Metcalf, off to the Dragons next year, is named on the bench. It has held together at times, but I think their unsettled halves will burn them at some point, and it could be this weekend.
On the spread the line sits at 6.5, and I reckon that is handicapped about right. I don't see a lot of value there even with the Dolphins covering nine on the bounce. The last five meetings between these two tell the story. The biggest winning margin in those games was four points, with two decided by four and three by just two. This is a genuinely close fixture. I still lean the Dolphins to cover, and yes, the way they are travelling they could win by eight, 10, even blow it open, but the Warriors away from home will be competitive, so it is a no bet for me with low confidence.
The total is set at 51.5 and I'm not convinced there is value either way. A Saturday afternoon at Suncorp with two sides who carry points usually nudges you to the over, and the Dolphins have gone over in four of their last six. The catch is the Warriors, who have gone under in three of their last five and six of their last eight. With the two pulling in different directions I don't have a play here. If pushed I would lean over, but it is a watch, not a bet.
Where I have landed is the margin. The Warriors can be a top-four side, the kind that makes a preliminary final and finishes up the pointy end, and this is a game they would dearly love to win. I just can't see it happening, and the line agrees, with them clear underdogs and stuck there for a while now. But the closeness of this fixture, those last five all inside four points, tells me a Dolphins win is more likely to be tight than a runaway. So even though I think the Dolphins are a big-game side, especially at home, the play is the Dolphins to win by one to 12.
Best Bet: Dolphins to Win by 1-12 $2.95 (1 unit)
North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers
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This shapes as a bounce-back spot for both. The Cowboys are on a three-game losing streak and sitting just outside the eight, and they need to start winning soon to stop the slide. The Panthers copped only their second loss of the season last week, an upset at the hands of the Titans, but they did it without their Origin contingent. Brian To'o, Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo all come back into the side this week, which changes the picture considerably.
The head-to-head is tight, the Panthers leading the last 10 meetings 5-4 with one drawn, and it has been a low-scoring fixture, averaging just 41 points. The lines this week have Penrith at 13.5 with the total set at 50.5.
Start with the spread, because that is the one I'm passing on. That line is just a touch too big for my liking against a home underdog. The Cowboys are precariously placed and I don't think they win this, but a desperate side in front of their own crowd usually finds a level, and I expect a spirited performance. I can't lay that many points on the road team, even when it is the Panthers, so it is a no bet for me on the line.
On the total I lean over, but it stays just a lean and I won't be playing it. Conditions are meant to be good on a quick track, both teams are in bounce-back mode, and the Panthers' attack is whole again with their stars back. I will be upfront that the trends argue the other way. The Panthers are 8-6 to the under this season, the Cowboys 9-6, and the fixture itself has been a low-scoring one. That mix is enough to keep me off it, so it is a watch rather than a play, with only a slight lean to the over.
My best bet here is the Panthers to lead at half-time by 6.5. They have led at the break in 13 of their 14 games this year, and a 6.5 half-time line would have landed in 10 of those 14. The only times they led by six or less were against the Sea Eagles, Raiders and Titans, all by exactly six. The reason I like it more than usual this week is the bounce-back angle. The Panthers have been a strong first-half team all season, and after the way they lost to the Titans without their Origin men, I expect them to come out firing with that group back. We saw the template in round 7, when they lost to the Bulldogs in round 6 and then led the Dolphins 18-0 at the break the following week.
My second play is the first-half total over 23.5, and the Cowboys are the engine. Their games have produced 24 or more first-half points in 12 of their 15 this season, an 80% hit rate, and with the Panthers' attack back the points should come early. The reason this is only a small play is the Panthers' first-half defence. They have allowed seven or more points in the opening half just twice all year, so the Cowboys will have to earn their looks. I still back them to do it. The Cowboys should still manage a try or two before the break, and the Panthers, fast starters all season, look good for three plus tries of their own. Put the two together and the over is the right side of the line.
Best Bet: Panthers -6.5 at Half-Time $1.98 (1.5 units)
Second Best Bet: First Half Total Points Over 23.5 $1.77 (1 unit)
Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm
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This is one I'm really looking forward to. Two in-form sides at Brookvale, and it should be a cracker. The Sea Eagles have been travelling nicely. Since the coaching change they have lost just three games, and all three were on the road, with Brookvale turning into a bit of a fortress. They have covered in three of their four home games in that run. The one note of caution is their recent form against the line, with just two covers from their last five. The Storm, after a rough start to the year, have turned it around since round 10, covering four of their last six and losing only once in that stretch, by 10 to the Bulldogs back in round 12.
The head-to-head favours Melbourne, who lead the last 10 meetings 6-4, and it has been a low-scoring fixture, the under landing in seven of those 10 at an average of around 44 points. The lines this week have Manly at 6.5 with the total set at 48.5.
On the spread I don't have a strong feel, so it is a no bet either way. I lean the Storm to cover, only because they need to keep winning. They sit two wins outside the eight and have to bank games like this, so I expect a full-on performance and they have the talent to deliver it. That said, I still think the Sea Eagles get the win at home, so a 6.5 line is one I would rather leave alone. I would be keener on the Storm with the points if it were nearer 8.5.
The total is where I have a bit more conviction than the spread, and I lean under. The Sea Eagles have gone under in every one of their home games under Foran, and the fixture itself has trended that way, with the under landing in seven of the last 10 meetings. The Storm have been the higher-scoring side of late, which is the main thing holding me back from a firm play, and there is the chance of a shower about, though I don't think it slows the game too much. Lean under, no bet.
That leads into my best bet. I like either team to win by one to 10. The Storm have only won twice away from home all year, and both came against the bottom two sides in the Dragons and the Eels. The flip side is that they have stayed competitive on the road, beaten by 11 or more only twice, by the Dolphins in round 9 and by the Panthers by 40 in round 5 when they were well off their game, and this is a far better Storm now. They rarely win away but they have not been losing by much either, which points to a tight game. Add the Sea Eagles bouncing back from their one-point loss to the Bulldogs, two teams who will take a win any way they can get it at this stage of the season, and I'm expecting a close, well-fought contest. The one-to-10 band fits exactly how I see it.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $2.02 (2 units)
Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons
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Neither of these teams has had the year they wanted. The Dragons have won just one game all season and are odds-on for the wooden spoon. The Raiders are the bigger disappointment given where they came from, the defending minor premiers down to just five wins, a long way short of last year. They have won one of their last six, that lone result a 14-point home win over the Cowboys.
This is where the history matters, because it is one of the great even contests on the calendar. The Raiders lead the last 10 meetings 7-3, but the favourite has covered just once in those 10, all the way back in 2020, and every one of the last nine has been decided by 10 points or fewer. The average total sits at just 41.5. The lines this week have Canberra at 10.5 with the total set at 52.5.
This is not me being a biased fan. The Dragons have shown plenty over the last few weeks. They beat the Broncos, they led the Sharks at half-time before being run down, and they were a two-point loss away from knocking over the Knights, a game I think they should have won. They are playing a lot better than their ladder position suggests.
That brings me to the play I like most in this game. Canberra at double-digit favourites is just too many points for a team with this record. Their only two wins by more than 10 all season came against the Cowboys and the Titans, by 14 and 16. Those sides are better than the Dragons on paper, but with the way St George Illawarra have improved, the gap is a lot closer than the ladder makes it look. Add the head-to-head, where the favourite is one from 10 against the line and every one of the last nine has been within 10, and a get-well spot for the Raiders does not change my read. This fixture is always a battle, the kind that goes down to the last 10 minutes, and I will happily take the points.
The total is the second part of it, and I just can't get to 52.5 with how these two are playing. The Dragons have gone over in only four games all season and the Raiders in only five, both under 35% to the over. The fixture backs it up, the total clearing 53 just once in the last 10 meetings. That is a big number for two low-scoring sides, so the under is the play, though I am keeping it to a single unit.
Best Bet: Dragons +10.5 $1.85 (2.5 units)
Second Best Bet: Under 52.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)
Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers
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Both these teams have outrun their preseason expectations. The Knights sit fifth, two wins clear of the Wests Tigers in tenth, who are scrapping to get back into the eight after a strong start to the year. This is a Sunday afternoon game in the Newcastle sun, and I think it has the makings of a high-scoring one.
The Knights have had the wood on this fixture, leading the last 10 meetings 7-3. Those games have historically been low-scoring, but the meeting earlier this year bucked that trend with 64 points, and both sides are in a far more attacking gear now. The lines this week have Newcastle at 7.5 with the total set at 51.5.
The Knights are flying, winners of five of their last six, and they have scored 28 or more in every one of those games bar the Dragons, including 30 in a tight loss away in Melbourne. They will be disappointed with how they laboured past the Dragons last week, but the attack has been humming. The Tigers have been in a run of high-scoring games, clearing this 51.5 number in six of their last seven. They also welcome back Adam Doueihi into the halves and Alex Twal through the middle, both returning from injury, which should sharpen their attacking shape.
On the spread I lean the Knights to cover. I don't rate the Tigers' defence at the moment, and Newcastle have the better attack and the home crowd behind them. It is a lean rather than a play, but if I had to take a side it is the Knights laying the 7.5.
The over is where the value is, and it is my play. Both teams are mirror images on totals this year at 8-6 to the over, with the Knights scoring a few more points and the Tigers leaking a few more. In afternoon games the numbers are even louder. The Knights are averaging just under 54 points a game in the afternoon and the Tigers a touch over 60, both well above this line. Two attacks that can score, two defences that have leaked at times, a quick Sunday track in Newcastle, and a number sitting under 52. I see a lot of value in the over.
Best Bet: Over 51.5 Total Points $1.87 (2 units)
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