This one is split right down the middle, five wins each across the last ten meetings. The totals picture is where it gets interesting. The last two games in the fixture both flew over, a 70-point game in 2024 and 62 in 2025, but in the eight before that there were seven unders and just the one over. Across the ten the average sits at 41.2. The line is Wests Tigers -5.5 with the total at 48.5.
The Dragons have quietly tightened up since they knocked off the Broncos at Suncorp in round thirteen. They led the Sharks at the break before fading, then went down by two at Newcastle and by eight at Canberra, both on the road. This is their first game at home in a month, and I expect them to be well up for it. The line has come in from -6.5 to -5.5, and while I would have wanted a bigger stake at the old number, I still like the Dragons to hang inside this one.
Wests Tigers arrive on the back of consecutive losses to the Dolphins and then the Knights, the second a tight, low-scoring one they were right in until the finish. Their spine and right edge look a touch reshaped this week and the combinations may not be fully settled, though they do welcome Alex Twal back to the middle. Adam Doueihi's return a few weeks ago has been a real boost, especially in attack, where he gives them more spark and direction with the ball in hand.
So much of this comes down to the forward battle. The Dragons have one of the better young packs going around with Damien Cook steering them from dummy half, and if they win the middle they will keep this close. The flip side is their left edge, which has leaked badly of late. We saw two long-range tries against them last week off turnovers deep in the Raiders half, both down that same left side, and if that keeps happening the margin can get away in a hurry.
On the spread, I still lean the Dragons at +5.5. They have been competitive in defeat, they are mobile enough up front to stay in the arm wrestle, and being back at home should lift them another notch. I am not chasing the head to head here.
Where I have landed, though, is the margin. I rate the Dragons a genuine upset chance, and if they do get there it will not be by much, so rather than take the start I would prefer either team to win by one to ten. It is better value at the price, and it opens up the Tigers winning by six, eight or ten as well. I do not see either side blowing the other out, and while a blowout is the obvious risk on a play like this, the Dragons have been keeping games tight at this stage of the season.
On the total, I lean under. Both these teams have trended that way this season, the Dragons hitting the under in eleven of fifteen and the Tigers a little more balanced but still under in seven of fifteen. That said, the last two in this fixture blew the roof off, and the Dragons' lapses down the left are a real over risk, so this stays a lean rather than a play.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.98 (2.5 units)
Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks
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The Broncos and Sharks have only met seven times since 2020, and those games have been tight, the Broncos leading 4-3 with the scoring kept low at an average of 42.4. It is not a big sample, so I am leaning more on current form than history for this one. The line is Sharks -7.5 with the total at 49.5.
The Broncos are in all sorts. They have lost seven straight and have not won since they beat the Bulldogs at home back in round eight. For all that, their losses at home have stayed close, going down by four to the Dragons, by five to the Titans and by six to the Roosters. They are without Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan and Reece Walsh to Origin, which does not help, but this is a proud club and the defending champions, and at some point the dam wall breaks.
The Sharks come in the other way, or at least they were. They had reeled off four straight before a heavy loss to the Roosters in round sixteen, and they arrive here fresh off the bye, carrying plenty of quality. The concern is the travel. They have won just two of their six games on the road this year, a 12-point win at Canberra in round four and a two-point escape at the Warriors, and they have not looked comfortable away from home. This shapes as a genuine banana skin.
On the spread, I lean the Broncos at +7.5, though it is not a strong one. I just think the number is a touch high for a Broncos side that keeps finding ways to stay in games, even in defeat. They are due, they are at home, and this might be their last real chance to keep a top-eight run alive, which for a team of this pedigree still means something.
That is why I am playing the margins rather than the line. I do think the Sharks win this, and most likely by somewhere in the one to ten range, so both of my plays are built around that same tight finish. The Sharks one to twelve backs them directly and is where I see the value. The either team one to ten lands on that same close margin and doubles as insurance in case it is the Broncos who find a way to get up at home. So rather than load it all into one margin play, I am splitting the stake across the two bands, with a close game the common thread between them.
On the total, I lean under. The Sharks have cooled right off with their last three producing just 46, 18 and 35, the Broncos have gone under for most of the year, and Saturday night games have finished under 76% of the time this season. Add in a game I expect to stay close and the under makes sense, but it is a no bet for me here.
Best Bet: Sharks to Win by 1-12 $2.90 (1 unit)
Second Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $2.05 (1 unit)
Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles
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This fixture leans heavily to the home side. The home team has won nine of the last ten meetings since 2020, the only exception being Parramatta's 36-20 win at Brookvale back in 2022. The last three have all gone under, though across the ten the average sits at 49.7. The line is Sea Eagles -8.5 with the total at 49.5.
The Eels have been poor for most of the year, but they have been more competitive over the last six weeks, covering four of those six. They are without Mitchell Moses again, yet they have been covering without him anyway, and they welcome back Jonah Pezet from a long-term injury this week, which helps their halves combination even with Moses out.
Manly have been genuinely impressive since the coaching change in round five. In that time they have lost only three games, to the Panthers, the Sharks and the Bulldogs, and all three were by a converted try or less. The catch is how they travel. They have covered just twice in their last five, both at home, with their last away cover coming against the Wests Tigers back in round eleven. They also tend to ease off when they get in front, and we saw that last week when Tom Trbojevic was given an early mark in the rout of the Storm. They also lose some punch on the right edge, with Haumole Olakau'atu, in sublime form this season, missing this week on Origin duty.
On the spread, I am with the Eels at +8.5. The fixture screams home team, Parramatta have been competitive enough lately to hang inside this, and Manly are in a spot where they only need to keep winning to hold their place in the eight, not win by a cricket score. When they get on top they have been known to rest key players, which can cap the margin. It is a small play at one unit, but I think it is the right side of this one given how both teams are tracking.
On the total, I lean under. The Eels have gone over just six times all year and are on a run of five straight unders, Manly have hit the under in ten of fifteen and four of their last five, and the last three in this fixture have all stayed below the line. The one thing that holds me back is the slot. Sunday afternoon games have gone over 60% of the time this season, and we have seen some high-scoring ones, so the under stays a lean rather than a play.
Best Bet: Eels +8.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins
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These two have only met six times, and it has been a low-scoring fixture, the last four meetings all going under with the average sitting at 41.7. The line is Dolphins -1.5 with the total at 51.5.
This shapes as a blockbuster even with the Origin call-ups. Both sides are missing a fair bit. Newcastle are without Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best to Origin, while the Dolphins lose a cluster of their own to the representative round. On top of that the Dolphins are without Isaiya Katoa, who suffered a forearm fracture against the Warriors last week and will miss a few weeks, though his replacement did a reasonable job filling in.
The Knights have been excellent at home, winning their last three, and crucially all of them have been tight. Their wins over the Eels, Dragons and Wests Tigers were each decided by six or fewer, and in fact all four of their home games since the Rabbitohs clash in round nine have been settled by six or under. They have won six of their last seven overall, so they arrive in strong form.
The Dolphins are the form team of the competition, riding an eight-game winning streak. It is hard to knock them, and on paper it is hard not to lean their way. Both sides sit level on competition points and are pushing hard for their finals position, so there is plenty riding on this.
On the spread, I do lean the Knights to cover, but the play here is the tight finish. I just do not see either team running away with this. Newcastle's exclusions are real, but they have been so hard to beat at home, and while the Dolphins have been blowing sides away through this streak, they are missing so many of their Origin stars this week that I expect the gap to close right up. Because I think it stays tight, either team to win by one to ten is my best bet, at one and a half units.
On the total, I lean under, though it is a no bet. My first instinct on 51.5 was the over, because both these teams can score and this has the makings of a good game. What pulls me back is the number of players missing on both sides, the fact this fixture has gone under in each of the last four meetings, and the totals form, with the Dolphins under in nine of fifteen and the Knights, despite a slight over-lean overall, under in four of their last five. With a close, arm-wrestle type game on the cards, the under makes sense, but the Sunday afternoon slot has produced overs 60% of the time this year, so I am happy to leave it alone.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.95 (1.5 units)
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