NRL Round 2 2026 Preview & Tips

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After Round 1, we're sitting at +9.35 units for the season. Seven of the eight Best Bets landed, with only the Storm vs Eels under 44.5 missing the mark (Melbourne went on a 52-4 rampage). A good start, but a long way to go.

Round 1 gave us plenty to work with. Some teams looked the part, others didn't, and the market has adjusted quickly in spots. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.

Broncos vs Eels

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A fairly even fixture historically. The Eels lead the H2H 6-5 since 2020, but the Broncos have won four of the last five meetings. Parramatta did spring a 22-20 upset in Round 21 last season as +13.5 underdogs. Brisbane sit at -13.5 with a total of 49.5.

Both sides were disappointing in Round 1. The Broncos forced things too often in attack and never really found their rhythm, while the Eels were well beaten by the Storm. Parramatta also spent 20 minutes with 12 men in that game and conceded 16 points during that period. They'll also be without Hopgood due to suspension.

I expect both sides to improve, but the Broncos should respond strongly at home as the defending premiers. With Ezra Mam back starting in the halves, their spine should function much better. The line at -13.5 is chunky though, and the Broncos only covered the line in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.

The total is the play. Historical trends lean slightly under in this matchup, but Suncorp tends to produce points. The Broncos averaged 32.6 points at home in 2025 and their home games have gone over 63% of the time over the past five seasons. Perfect conditions are forecast. I can see Brisbane scoring 30+ here, the question is whether Parramatta can contribute enough to push it past the number. I think they can.

Warriors vs Raiders

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This fixture has consistently produced tight, low scoring games. The Raiders lead the H2H 7-5 since 2020 and the under has landed in 9 of the last 12 meetings. The average total is just 39.8 points. The Warriors are -1.5 here with a total of 46.5.

Auckland is one of the lowest scoring venues in the competition. Warriors home games have gone over the total just 39% of the time over the past five seasons. Raiders away games also lean under (only 44% going over). The total would have gone over 46.5 in 0 of the last 5 H2H meetings.

Both teams come in with confidence after Round 1. The Warriors were excellent against the Roosters, while the Raiders snuck home in a wet golden point win. Based on how both sides attacked in those games, the under is a little uncomfortable, and the new rules have games trending faster. Total points are 6-2 to the over so far this season.

But the matchup history is too strong to ignore. The Warriors have also struggled to cover when favoured at home, going just 31% as a home favourite since 2021. That adds weight to the underdog side, but with both sides in the halves having questions, I'll stay off the line.

The total is where I'm comfortable. The matchup heavily trends under and the line sits well above the historical scoring profile.

Roosters vs Rabbitohs

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One of the NRL's great rivalries. The Roosters are -2.5 at Allianz with a total of 49.5. Across the 13 meetings with spread data since 2020, the favourite has covered just 46% of the time and the underdog has generally been the more reliable play. The average total is 47.4 points.

The Roosters would have covered this line in 4 of the last 5 meetings, which is encouraging, but this fixture tends to stay tight regardless of form.

Both teams come in off very different Round 1 performances. The Roosters were disappointing against the Warriors and never really got their attack going, while the Rabbitohs were involved in a 40-30 shootout against the Dolphins.

I'm expecting a bounce back from the Roosters against their biggest rivals. Even though the supporting numbers aren't overwhelming, my gut feel is the Roosters get the job done at home.

On the total, Friday night games leaned under quite heavily last season, but Roosters games at Allianz told a very different story. In 2025, 8 of their 10 games there went over with an average total of 53 points. With both sides capable of scoring and both teams coming off 60+ game totals last week, this matchup has the potential to open up.

Wests Tigers vs Cowboys

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This is a points machine. The over has landed in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these sides with an average total of 62.6 points. The Tigers are -4.5 with a total of 53.5.

The Cowboys have dominated the matchup recently, leading the H2H 8-3 since 2020 and winning 7 of the last 8. The Tigers wouldn't have covered -4.5 in any of the last five meetings.

The Tigers begin their season this week after a Round 1 bye. Off-field issues aside, I think they'll be a better side this year. The Cowboys, on the other hand, were disappointing in their Vegas opener against the Knights and their defence still looks well below par.

I slightly lean towards the Tigers at home, but both teams are far too unpredictable to trust on the spread. The Tigers also have a poor record as a home favourite at Leichhardt, going 2-5 ATS in that role over the past five seasons.

The total is the clear play. Leichhardt Oval games have gone over 65% of the time over the past five seasons with an average total of 52.5 points. Applying this week's line, the total would have gone over 53.5 in each of the last five meetings. Even though 53.5 is one of the bigger numbers you'll see this season, the history of this matchup strongly points to points.

Dragons vs Storm

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More competitive than many expect. The H2H is split 3-3 since 2020 and the Dragons have won two of the last three, including a 14-8 upset in 2025 as +9.5 underdogs. The Storm are -8.5 here with a total of 47.5.

Both teams were impressive in Round 1. The Dragons may feel unlucky after their one point loss to the Bulldogs in Vegas, while the Storm were clinical in dismantling the Eels.

I like the Dragons with the points. They have a young, mobile forward pack that defends well and competes hard through the middle. Melbourne still have the more polished backline and a far more experienced halves pairing capable of controlling the game, but the Dragons tend to lift at home.

St George Illawarra have looked a lot better under Shane Flanagan. Their record at WIN Stadium last season was 3-3, with two of those losses coming by just a single point. There's also an interesting coaching trend here. Flanagan has historically had success against Craig Bellamy, winning 6 of the last 9 meetings between the two coaches.

The total is the other strong angle. Games between Bellamy and Flanagan heavily trend under with a 9-3 record to the under and an average total of just 29.3 points. Only one meeting between the two has gone over 47.5. With both sides defending well and recent meetings also trending low, this number looks a little high.

Panthers vs Sharks

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Penrith have completely dominated this matchup in recent years, winning 8 of the last 9 meetings. Cronulla's only win came in a narrow 19-18 result in 2021. The Panthers have also shut the Sharks out three times in that span with wins of 48-0, 28-0 and 42-0. Penrith are -7.5 with a total of 43.5.

Both teams were impressive in Round 1. The Panthers started the season in style with a dominant 26-0 win over the Broncos, while the Sharks were excellent in their win over the Titans. Even though both teams won well in their opening games, I still think Penrith looked the better of the two teams. Their defence was outstanding and their attack looked sharp.

With the line dropping under 8 points, this became a much more appealing number. Given Penrith have won 8 of the last 9 meetings and seven of those wins were by 8+ points, this pushes from a lean into a play.

On the total, I lean under but won't be putting it on. Panthers home games have gone under 61% of the time over the past five seasons and their defensive structure looked excellent last week. The last three games in Bathurst have also finished well under the total, although one was played in heavy rain and another featured a heavily rotated Panthers side. Even accounting for that, Penrith's defensive style often keeps games in the lower scoring range.

Sea Eagles vs Knights

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A surprisingly competitive matchup in recent years. The Knights actually lead the H2H 5-3 with one draw since 2020, and the favourite has only covered 3 of those 9 meetings. The Sea Eagles are -4.5 with a total of 48.5.

The average total sits at 44.7 points, but recent meetings have trended higher with three of the last five clearing 48.5.

Both sides are difficult to trust week to week. The Knights looked like a different team in Round 1, with their new signings Dylan Brown, Trey Mooney and Kalyn Ponga returning from injury, hitting the ground running. It's still hard to know whether that performance was more about Newcastle improving or the Cowboys underperforming.

Manly were competitive against the Raiders but fell short in golden point. With Daly Cherry-Evans now gone, it's still a little unclear where this Sea Eagles side sits early in the season. Because of that, I don't have a strong feel for this game. Both teams are among the more unpredictable sides in the competition.

On the total, I lean over. Sunday afternoon games at Brookvale often open up and this fixture has produced points in recent meetings.

Dolphins vs Titans

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The Dolphins have controlled this matchup since entering the competition, winning 5 of the 6 meetings. The only Titans win came in a 21-14 upset in 2024. Despite that dominance, the favourite has only covered 2 of the 6 meetings. The Dolphins are -9.5 with a total of 55.5.

Both teams come into this game off disappointing losses in high scoring contests last week. The Dolphins still look dangerous with plenty of weapons across their backline, while the Titans remain without Jayden Campbell which is a major loss to their attack.

The Dolphins averaged 32.8 points per game at home last season, while the Titans conceded 33.9 points per game on the road. With the Dolphins already holding a 5-1 edge in this fixture, the numbers favour them.

The total is the more difficult call. At first glance it looks like a shootout given how both teams play, but 55.5 is extremely high. The H2H average total is just 48.2 and only one of the six meetings has gone over 55.5. Even if this game does open up, the line still feels inflated given this is a Queensland derby.