This one has a finals feel to it. Both sides are inside the eight, the Roosters sitting third and the Knights sixth with four competition points between them, and both will treat it like a knockout. The Roosters have had the better of this fixture in recent times, winning eight of the last nine meetings, but the betting angle runs the other way. The favourite has failed to cover in each of the last five meetings, and the last three games in Newcastle have all been decided by four points or fewer. The line is Roosters -2.5 with the total at 45.5.
The Knights arrive off back-to-back away losses, both by two points, to the Rabbitohs and the Sharks. Every one of their last seven games has been decided by one to ten points. The Roosters have been more emphatic lately, their recent form a mix of comfortable wins and the odd blowout rather than the nail-biters Newcastle keep finding.
I think the Roosters are the better side, and with a home final to chase come September they'll be eyeing this one, so on the spread I lean them at -2.5. But Newcastle are desperate too, they're at home, and they've been good enough to lose their last two by a whisker. That's enough to keep me off the line.
The total pulls in two directions. The firepower across both backlines argues for the over, but the numbers argue the opposite. The Roosters have gone under in eight of their last nine and the Knights in six of their last eight, and a finals-style arm wrestle points the same way. I lean under 45.5 without the confidence to make it a play.
What I keep coming back to is the shape of the game. Newcastle's last seven have all landed in the one-to-ten-point band, both sides have plenty riding on it, and a desperate home team off two heartbreak losses should stay right in the contest to the end. A tight finish either way is where the value sits.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 Points $1.88 (2 units)
Rabbitohs vs Storm
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The last meeting between these two was a bloodbath. On Anzac Day at AAMI Park the Rabbitohs handed the Storm a 48-6 hiding, and that result still colours the fixture. Melbourne have won seven of the last 10 meetings even so, but the favourite has been a poor bet here, covering just three of the last 10 at an average of 44.4 points, with the under landing six times. The line this week is Storm -1.5 with the total at 46.5.
Both squads look very different to the ones that met in April. Souths have reshuffled their backline with Tallis Duncan out, and up front they're without David Fifita and Cameron Murray, while Melbourne welcome Jahrome Hughes back but lose Will Warbrick for the season to an Achilles injury. On balance I think the changes favour the Storm. Hughes lifts their spine, while the Rabbitohs' outs thin out a side already only just inside the eight.
I lean the Storm, though not by much. They're slight favourites and I think that's deserved given the reshaping of the Souths line-up. Melbourne sit outside the eight, four competition points back, and a win here would haul them right back into the finals picture, while the Rabbitohs are clinging to the bottom of the eight and will be desperate themselves. Like the Knights and Roosters game, there's plenty riding on it for both. That's a lean, not a play.
On the total, I lean the under at 46.5. There are too many outs in the Souths side to trust the over, this shapes as a fight in the forwards, and the attacking polish isn't there with the personnel they're missing. Friday nights have trended heavily under this season, going under in 15 of 23 games (65%), and a tight, low-scoring script fits the finals feel.
As with the Roosters and Knights, the feel of the game matters more to me than the winner, and I'm not keen to pick a side straight up. Both teams have plenty to play for, the line is short at -1.5, and I expect a tight one. The margin band is where I want to be.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 Points $1.88 (2 units)
Raiders vs Wests Tigers
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The Tigers have won just two of the last nine in this fixture, and it's been a low-scoring rivalry, seven of those nine landing under at an average of 44.2 points. Historically the favourite has struggled to cover a big number here too. The line this week is Raiders -13.5 with the total at 51.5, and it's the form line rather than the history that has my attention.
Wests Tigers are the competition's whipping boys at the moment. They've lost five in a row, four of them by 13 or more, capped by a 32-0 shutout in Canterbury last week. The Raiders are the opposite story, winners of three straight with two of those at home, and they're pushing for a late finals run. Whether they get there is another question, but they'll put their best foot forward.
The gap between these two is stark, and I don't think the Tigers are up to it. Canberra at home on a Saturday afternoon against a side in freefall is the spot, and I'm happy to lay the 13.5. The one caution is the fixture history, where a big favourite hasn't often covered, but the Tigers of the last month are a different, broken proposition. This is the Raiders' game.
I lean the over as well, though it stays a lean. The Raiders have been scoring for fun, 24, 40 and 34 across their last three and over the total in three of their last four. When they click they can put up a cricket score, and with fine conditions forecast this shapes as a big afternoon. The counter is that this fixture has gone under in seven of the last nine and 51.5 is a tall number, so I'll take the over as a lean without staking it.
Best Bet: Raiders -13.5 $1.85 (1.5 units)
Bulldogs vs Warriors
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There's not much between these two on recent evidence. The Warriors have edged the head-to-head 5-3 over the last eight, but the games have been tight and low-scoring, five of the eight finishing under at an average of just 39.6 points. The line is Warriors -5.5 with a skinny total of 42.5.
Both sides are in reasonable nick. The Bulldogs have found something in the back half, winning five of their last seven, and they backed it up with a 32-0 shutout of the Wests Tigers last week. The Warriors have won four of their last seven, including back-to-back wins over the Tigers and, in Auckland last week, the Dragons. Canterbury welcome Stephen Crichton back this week, and with an outside shot at the eight still alive there is plenty on it for them.
The line looks about right and I don't see much value in laying the 5.5. The Warriors have a habit of playing down to lesser opposition, and these games tend to stay close. I lean the Warriors to cover, I think they're good enough, but a two-point win, a four-point win or a ten-point win are all live outcomes, and that uncertainty keeps me off it. There is a genuine upset chance too, with the Bulldogs stringing results together and everything to play for.
On the total, I lean the under at 42.5. The Bulldogs have gone under in five of their last six and the Warriors in six of their last seven, and this fixture has a low ceiling. That said, 42.5 is a short number, and a 24-20 or 28-20 kind of result would sneak over, so it is a lean rather than a play. Both defences have shown enough this season to keep the score down.
For the Warriors a home final is the carrot and they'll want to protect their standing near the top, while the Bulldogs are scrapping to stay in touch with the eight. Two motivated sides in a fixture that keeps producing tight, low-scoring finishes is why I'd rather back a close margin than pick a winner.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 Points $1.90 (1.5 units)
Cowboys vs Broncos
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The Queensland derby has been a shootout in recent years. Nine of the last 10 meetings have gone over the total at an average of 54.5 points, yet the margins have tightened right up, the last three all decided by 10 points or fewer. Both sides look close to full strength. The line is Broncos -2.5 with the total at 48.5.
The Broncos were the story of the round last week, winning away at Penrith to snap an eight-game losing streak, hanging in and closing it out late. It was the kind of performance that recalled the Brisbane side which surged to the decider a year ago. They remain an outside chance of the eight, and a win here would keep that alive while denting the Cowboys' own run. North Queensland will be smarting after going down to the Dolphins, and they have won just two of their last six.
Do I trust the Broncos after one result? Not entirely. It was a top effort, but I'd want to see them back it up before leaning in hard. I do lean them to cover the 2.5 and I think they win it, so I don't mind that number, but the Cowboys will be well up for this. They have the outside backs to score in bunches and enough up front to match Brisbane, and it all points to a tight Queensland affair.
The total is the awkward one. History screams over, nine of the last 10 in this fixture clearing the line, but the current form says otherwise. The Broncos have gone under in four of their last five and the Cowboys in six of their last eight. I lean the over on the weight of the rivalry, but with both sides trending the other way it is a no play.
For all the over history, this shapes as a close, finals-flavoured derby with plenty at stake for both. I'll take the tight finish.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 Points $1.92 (1.5 units)
Dragons vs Titans
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This is my best bet of the week. The fixture is dead even over the last 10, five wins each, and it has been a low-scoring one, seven of those 10 finishing under at an average of 43.2 points. The Titans took the most recent meeting 22-14 on the Gold Coast. The line here is Dragons -1.5 with the total at 46.5.
Both sides are largely unchanged from Round 20, the exception being AJ Brimson out of the Titans centres, and they lose a bit of spark without him. The Gold Coast were good last week in a high-scoring win over the Sea Eagles, and that counts for plenty against a side sitting inside the eight.
The Dragons have been a much better side since Magic Round, even if the wins haven't come with it. Both of their victories this season have landed in that stretch, and they've covered four straight and five of their last seven, and they were desperately unlucky against the Warriors last week with a few calls going against them. This young forward pack is standing up in the middle and competing in the tackle box, and it's making the Dragons a genuinely competitive side. Dean Young being confirmed as head coach has clearly landed well in the dressing room too. You could see the disappointment on their faces after the Warriors game. They're not going anywhere this season, that much is settled, but this is a side building something and they're ready for this one.
I'm going with the money line rather than the spread. The line is only 1.5 so the difference is marginal, but I want them straight up and I think they win it by six to ten. Part of this is a narrative call, they're due, and the Titans will find it tough.
The total is where I'm less sure. Both teams have been under machines all year, each with just four overs from 17 games, the Dragons under in seven of their last eight. On the numbers the under is the play. But a Sunday afternoon at Kogarah with a fired-up Dragons side and a Titans team that still has points in them could easily sail over. I'll lean the under because that's where both teams have been tracking, though the over wouldn't shock me.
Best Bet: Dragons to Win $1.90 (2.5 units)
Sea Eagles vs Sharks
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A good game to finish the round. The Sharks have owned this fixture, winning eight of the last 10, including a 28-22 win over Manly at home earlier this season. It's been a high-scoring rivalry too, averaging 51.2 points, though the favourite has covered only half the time. The line is Sharks -3.5 with the total at 46.5.
Manly have lost four of their last five and look a side fading a little. Three of those defeats came away from home, and the other was a one-point upset at Brookvale against the Cowboys in Round 19 where the goalkicking cost them. Last week they went down on the Gold Coast and lost Tom Trbojevic to another hamstring injury. Cronulla, by contrast, are red hot, winners of seven of their last eight with the only blemish a loss to the Roosters.
I lean the Sea Eagles to bounce back here, but I'm interested in the Sharks price too, and that tells you where I sit. This one could go either way and a couple of key moments will decide it, so the margin band is where I want to be rather than picking a side.
On the total, I lean the under. Manly will be desperate to tighten up defensively after what the Titans put on them last week, and their season-long numbers back that up. Since Round 6 they've gone under in 11 of 14 games (79%), and every game at Brookvale since Kieran Foran took over as head coach has landed under. The Sharks' defence has been excellent as well. Something in the 24-16 or 20-12 range wouldn't surprise me at all.
Neither result would shock me here, which is exactly why I'll take the close finish to close out the round.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 Points $1.90 (2 units)
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