The Cowboys have owned this fixture, winning seven of the last ten and covering seven of them too, including a 30-16 win earlier this year. The line is Cowboys -3.5 with the total at 48.5.
Both sides were humbled last week. The Cowboys shipped 82 points to the Roosters, an 82-12 hammering that put a serious dent in their for-and-against, while the Titans were beaten 42-6 by the Warriors. In the Titans' favour, in the two weeks leading into that loss they'd put up 38 points against the Sea Eagles and then the Dragons, so the attack has shown life recently. The Cowboys' finals maths is live but awkward: they're technically ahead of the Rabbitohs and Bulldogs on a win, though with a bye still to come, and with all four of their remaining games against teams outside the eight they'll want a strong finish. Jeremiah Nanai is out, taking away an aerial threat.
This is more narrative than numbers. After an embarrassment like that, I expect the Cowboys to come out with a point to prove, and with their season on the line the importance of this one won't be lost on them. I'll back them to cover the 3.5. It's not without risk, the Titans have been plucky and were posting points before last week's flop, so they can't be written off entirely, but the Cowboys should be a level above here.
The total is where I'm torn. The fixture has gone over in three of the last five, and both defences were carved up last week, so on recent evidence the over at 48.5 has appeal. I expect both attacks to look sharper than they did, though I'd also expect both defences to tighten up after last week, which cuts the other way. The bigger problem is the Titans have been a remarkable under side, just five of their 19 games clearing the line all year. That keeps me from playing it. Lean over, no bet.
Best Bet: Cowboys -3.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Warriors vs Panthers
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The Panthers have owned this fixture, winning nine of the last ten meetings, and it's been a low-scoring one at an average of just 40 points, with the under landing in seven of ten. The Warriors' lone win in that run came at Magic Round in 2024, a 22-20 upset in Brisbane, so they're still chasing a win over Penrith on home soil across this stretch, and in fact haven't beaten the Panthers in Auckland since 2018. The line is Panthers -3.5 with a low total of 41.5.
The Warriors have been one of the stories of the season, exceeding expectations at 13-6 and now chasing a top-two finish, which is new territory for them. They're back home in a sold-out Go Media after the big win on the Gold Coast, and with the second-placed Roosters flying they badly need this. The Panthers sit top at 15-4. They've had three losses since Round 16 but have bounced back with wins in each of the last two weeks, and as ever they tend to hit their straps around this time of year. Casey McLean is the only change for Penrith after last week's convincing win over the Raiders, while the Warriors are unchanged.
I like the Panthers here. They're a class above, and I'm not reading too much into the Warriors' win on the Gold Coast. They were well beaten by the Bulldogs in Round 21 and struggled to score in that one, so their form hasn't been as convincing as last week's result suggests. Penrith know how to grind at this end of the season and protect a run at a home final, and that experience counts in a game like this. I'll back them to cover the 3.5, comfortable laying up to a converted try but no more.
The total is a lean rather than a play. This has a finals feel to it, and those games tend to stay tight, which points to the under at 41.5. Both sides have been under teams, the Warriors going under in 13 of 19 (68%) and the Panthers 11 of 19 (58%), and at Go Media the Warriors have gone under in five straight, the only exception this year their Round 1 opener. The defences have been sharp too, the Warriors holding the Titans to six last week and Penrith limiting the Raiders to 18. With fine weather forecast I lean the under, but it's a no play.
Best Bet: Panthers -3.5 $1.87 (1.5 units)
Roosters vs Bulldogs
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This is the second of the two games in the Friday-night blockbuster. It's been a tight, low-scoring fixture, five of the last eight decided by six points or fewer at an average of just 42.6, and tellingly the favourite has covered only two of the last eight. The line is Roosters -9.5 with the total at 44.5.
The Roosters are flying. They put 82 points on a lacklustre Cowboys outfit last week, a record-breaking haul, and have now won six straight since Round 16. I'm firmly on them as a grand-final contender and I expect them to win this. But I don't think the Bulldogs are getting enough respect. They've won seven of their last nine, got the job done 36-22 at the Storm in Melbourne to push back inside the eight, and their defence has been sharp lately.
That's where the value is. After a team hangs 82 on someone the market tends to overreact, and 9.5 looks too big to me, I had this nearer seven and a half. Add a fixture that keeps producing tight finishes, where the favourite has covered just twice in the last eight, and the Bulldogs are the play at +9.5. It's a one-unit dip rather than anything bigger, because opposing a side fresh off 82 points takes some nerve, but there's value in the number.
If the Roosters hadn't scored 82 last week, the under would probably be my best bet here. It stays a lean instead. They surely aren't repeating that, and their defence has been excellent through the winning run. Both teams have trended under, the Bulldogs in 11 of 19 and the Roosters 10 of 19, and while 10 of 19 sounds ordinary, since Round 10 the Roosters have gone over just twice, both away, at the Dolphins and the Cowboys. The Bulldogs are under in six of their last eight. With a finals feel to it, I lean the under at 44.5, no play.
Best Bet: Bulldogs +9.5 $1.94 (1.5 units)
Storm vs Sea Eagles
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These two have split the last ten meetings straight down the middle at 5-5, and it's usually been a grind, seven of those ten landing under the total at an average of just 44 points. The line is Sea Eagles -1.5 with the total at 48.5.
The Storm's finals hopes are all but gone. At 8-12 and with three straight losses behind them they need plenty to fall their way just to stay mathematically alive, but there's still a pulse and Craig Bellamy's side won't go quietly at home. The lift this week is Cameron Munster, back at five-eighth in an early return from knee surgery, and his experience in the halves matters in a game like this. The Sea Eagles are travelling the other way. Not long ago they looked set for the eight, but they've lost four on the bounce and five of their last six, the only win in that run the Round 17 result over this same Storm. They arrive off the bye and without Ben Trbojevic, and with their season slipping they badly need it.
I make this closer than the ladder suggests. For all the recent losses, the Sea Eagles carry a points differential of +90, comfortably better than the sides around them in the scrap for the last finals places, the Cowboys at -98 and the Bulldogs at -44. It says a side more competitive than their recent run suggests, and with a wounded Storm defending their season at home and Munster back, this shapes as a tight afternoon. The play is either team to win by one to ten points.
I lean the Storm to cover the +1.5 alongside it, happy to side with the home team in a game they have to have. The total is only a lean. I'd take the over at 48.5, but there's rain forecast for the Melbourne afternoon and this fixture has a long habit of staying low, so it's a no play.
Best Bet: Either team to win by 1-10 $1.91 (2 units)
Dolphins vs Broncos
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The battle of Brisbane has been a one-way street lately, the Broncos winning six of the last seven, but it's also been a low-scoring one, the under landing in six of those seven at an average of just 42 points. The line is Dolphins -7.5 with the total at 48.5.
The Dolphins have been good this year. They started slowly, found their rhythm, and after a blip in Rounds 18 and 19 with back-to-back losses they've steadied with wins over the Cowboys and the Dragons. At 12-7 they're nicely placed. The Broncos are a different story. The defending premiers are done, sitting near the foot of the table at 6-13 with nothing but pride left to play for, and they were run off the park by the Knights at Suncorp last week. They're also without Adam Reynolds, and the attack has laboured whenever he's out.
You can make a case for the Broncos at +7.5, a side with nothing to lose often plays with more freedom once the pressure's off. I lean that way, but I don't trust it. A team this out of sorts, misfiring in attack without Reynolds and coming off a hiding, is hard to back with any confidence, so it stays a no play.
Where I land is the under. On top of that fixture history, both teams have trended under all season, the Dolphins in 11 of 19 (58%) and the Broncos in 13 of 19 (68%), the Broncos under in five straight and the Dolphins in three of their last five. I expect a tight one. The Broncos have too much pride to let the Dolphins stroll through them, and the Dolphins don't need a blowout, they just need the win. The one hesitation is that both sides can put on points in a hurry, so it isn't without risk, but this shapes as a lower-scoring night.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Rabbitohs vs Eels
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The Rabbitohs have had this fixture's number lately, nine wins from the last ten, but the margins are the more telling part: they'd have covered this week's 10.5 in only three of the last five meetings. The line is Rabbitohs -10.5 with the total at 45.5.
The Rabbitohs have quietly gone about their business without ever hitting top gear. They've lost three of their last five, and their two wins in that run, over the Knights and the Storm, were both by two points. The last time they beat anyone by double figures was Round 17, against these same Eels. There's a lift this week with Cameron Murray and David Fifita back, the healthiest they've looked in a few weeks. The Eels are out of finals contention at 7-12, but they've stayed in the fight. They ground out a scrappy 16-13 win over the Wests Tigers last week, and against the two competition leaders they've hung tough, leading at half-time before going down by six to the Panthers and staying within 16 of the Roosters.
That's why I make 10.5 too many. I won't pretend the Rabbitohs can't win by 11 or more, they're a better side than their ladder spot suggests, with a points differential of +62 that dwarfs the Cowboys at -98 and the Bulldogs at -44 around them and sits right alongside the Knights, so for them this is more about securing their spot in the eight than scrapping to get into it. But they simply haven't been putting sides away, and the Eels keep hanging around. I'll take the Eels and the points.
The total is a lean rather than a play. Both these teams have struggled to score at times, the Eels remarkably going under in 11 of their last 12, and the Saturday-night slate has been an under machine all season. It stays a lean only because the Rabbitohs carry a higher ceiling with the ball and are getting bodies back, but the numbers point that way at 45.5.
Best Bet: Eels +10.5 $1.85 (1 unit)
Raiders vs Knights
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The head-to-head is level at 5-5, but the number that matters is the spread: the favourite has covered just twice in the last ten meetings (20%), and it's been a grind, the under landing in seven of ten at an average of 43.2. The line is Raiders -1.5 with the total at 46.5.
The Raiders were flying until last week, four straight wins including a 56-10 rout of the Wests Tigers, before the Panthers brought them back to earth with a 24-point beating at Mudgee. They're still in the finals hunt and a win here would keep them nicely placed, though for all the recent form they carry a negative differential at -60. The Knights have been the steadier of the two across the season at 12-8. They looked to be sliding, losing three on the trot by two points or fewer, but they answered emphatically with a 30-6 hiding of the Broncos. With no notable absentees either way, both sides line up at full strength.
This has a finals feel, two evenly matched teams with plenty riding on it, and that points me to a tight one. The Knights have played everything close since around Round 13, every game in that run bar the Broncos result decided by six points or fewer, and with rain forecast in Canberra it shapes as a low, grinding affair. Add a fixture where the favourite almost never covers, and the play is either team to win by one to ten points.
I lean the Raiders at home alongside it, but only a lean, they're a modest 1-5 ATS in the Sunday afternoon slot this year and the Knights have been the better team over the season, so a Newcastle win wouldn't surprise me at all. On the total, my first thought was the over given both teams have points in them, but the Knights put the handbrake on that: they've gone over in just one of their last seven. Combine that with the forecast weather and the finals-like feel, and I lean the under at 46.5. Both stay no plays.
Best Bet: Either team to win by 1-10 $1.88 (2.5 units)
Dragons vs Sharks
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There's local pride on the line here, but recent history is lopsided: the Sharks have won nine of the last ten in this one, the Dragons' solitary success coming last year. The line is Sharks -15.5 with the total at 50.5.
The Dragons have all but wrapped up the wooden spoon at 2-17, so it's pride and little else from here. The one genuine positive has been their young forward pack, which is hard to break down and could make the Sharks work for their metres through the middle. The trouble is at the other end: they leak points, conceding almost 30 a game, and they're without Toby Couchman this week. The Sharks are flying by contrast. They've won nine of their last ten, sit at 13-6 and look to be cruising towards a serious finals campaign, with plenty of points in them at close to 30 a game.
There's no argument the Sharks are the better side, and I expect them to win. But 15.5 is a lot to lay in a rivalry game where the home side has nothing to lose. The Dragons have actually held up against the line as a big underdog this year at 6-4 ATS, and the Sharks would have covered a number like this in only two of the last five meetings. Add rain about to keep it scrappy and I make the points too many. The one thing that gives me pause is that the Sharks are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the Sunday afternoon slot, but on balance I'll take the Dragons and the points.
The total is a lean rather than a play. Both teams have trended under lately, the Sharks under in five of their last seven and the Dragons in six of their last seven, the last two meetings in this fixture have gone under, and with rain around and the Dragons finding it a struggle to score, the arrows point down. It stays a lean because the Sharks carry the ceiling to blow this open against a leaky defence, so at 50.5 I lean the under, no play.
Best Bet: Dragons +15.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
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More on Round 23: every fixture prediction in one place at NRL Round 23 Predictions, or see the full NRL Predictions hub for the current round. Head-to-head records, recent form and key player stats for each game are on the Round 23 match previews page.
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