Season Tracker
Through 22 rounds, we're sitting at +53.00 units for the season with an overall record of 109-72 from 181 Best Bets (60.22%). Round 22 was a rough one, 4-6 for -3.99 units. The Dragons covering +13.5 and the Sharks handling the Rabbitohs were the highlights, along with the Warriors romping in at half-time, but the Roosters hanging 82 on the Cowboys torched the under and the best bet of the weekend went down when the Bulldogs beat the Storm by 14. Still comfortably in the black with the run to the finals on.
The Wests Tigers get the week off, and it's Indigenous Round. Here's how I'm reading the opener.
Titans vs Cowboys
vs 
The Cowboys have owned this fixture, winning seven of the last ten and covering seven of them too, including a 30-16 win earlier this year. The line is Cowboys -3.5 with the total at 48.5.
Both sides were humbled last week. The Cowboys shipped 82 points to the Roosters, an 82-12 hammering that put a serious dent in their for-and-against, while the Titans were beaten 42-6 by the Warriors. In the Titans' favour, in the two weeks leading into that loss they'd put up 38 points against the Sea Eagles and then the Dragons, so the attack has shown life recently. The Cowboys' finals maths is live but awkward: they're technically ahead of the Rabbitohs and Bulldogs on a win, though with a bye still to come, and with all four of their remaining games against teams outside the eight they'll want a strong finish. Jeremiah Nanai is out, taking away an aerial threat.
This is more narrative than numbers. After an embarrassment like that, I expect the Cowboys to come out with a point to prove, and with their season on the line the importance of this one won't be lost on them. I'll back them to cover the 3.5. It's not without risk, the Titans have been plucky and were posting points before last week's flop, so they can't be written off entirely, but the Cowboys should be a level above here.
The total is where I'm torn. The fixture has gone over in three of the last five, and both defences were carved up last week, so on recent evidence the over at 48.5 has appeal. I expect both attacks to look sharper than they did, though I'd also expect both defences to tighten up after last week, which cuts the other way. The bigger problem is the Titans have been a remarkable under side, just five of their 19 games clearing the line all year. That keeps me from playing it. Lean over, no bet.
Best Bet: Cowboys -3.5 $1.90 (1 unit)