Top of the table, Thursday night, and first place on the line. The winner takes outright top spot and the inside running at the minor premiership. Penrith are only 1.5 favourites at home, with the total sitting at 42.5.
That short line tells the story. The Roosters arrive on a seven-game winning streak and have looked the form side of the competition, while the Panthers are coming off a heavy 28-12 loss to the Warriors in Auckland, where they had no answer to a side that was ferocious defensively. It gets harder still with Isaah Yeo out on a pectoral injury, a real blow to the Penrith spine given how much of their game runs through him. Lindsay Smith moves from prop to lock to cover, and there's a chance Dylan Edwards returns from a shoulder complaint after being named among the reserves, which would be a timely lift at the back. For the Roosters, James Tedesco still hasn't shaken the ankle injury that kept him out last week, so Cody Ramsey keeps the fullback job after a composed effort in the win over the Bulldogs.
For all that, I like the bounce-back angle. Penrith were well below their standard last week and this is exactly the kind of fixture they respond to. They've owned this matchup, winning nine of the last ten, with the Roosters' most recent win in it coming earlier last year. I expect a big first half from the Panthers and fancy them to lead at the break. The Roosters, for all their form, haven't had to come from behind often on this run.
The total is the tougher read. This one has a finals feel, two sides that defend well with everything at stake, and I lean to the under at 42.5. The Roosters have gone under in six of their last eight and the Panthers in five of their last eight, so both have been trending that way. I'm not pulling the trigger on it though.
Where I land is a tight finish. A game this even, with the minor premiership and a first-week home final on the line, usually comes down to a couple of key plays. That lands me on either team to win by 1 to 10. Back the tight finish and let either side get there, the only thing that hurts it is a blowout, which I can't see in a game this even.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.83 (2 units)
Sea Eagles vs Dolphins
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Six weeks ago Manly looked bound for the eight. Since then the wheels have come off, five straight losses, and bar a one-point defeat to the Cowboys in Round 19 where they were a touch unlucky, they haven't really looked like winning any of them. This is do or die. They sit four points outside the eight and if they don't win here the season is as good as gone. The Dolphins arrive in the opposite mood, already having locked up their September ticket and winning eleven of their last thirteen, the pick of those last week's staggering 40-32 comeback against the Broncos from 24-0 down.
On the team news front, Manly get Clayton Faulalo back at fullback after a hamstring injury, a welcome return with Tom Trbojevic still sidelined, and Lehi Hopoate shifts to the wing. They do lose Taniela Paseka to a knee, so the go-forward through the middle gets a little harder, with Nathan Brown starting in his place. The Dolphins are all but unchanged, losing Kurt Donoghoe to a thumb injury with Ray Stone back from a neck complaint to cover.
I like the Sea Eagles getting the 10.5 start. Everything about their situation points to a big performance in front of a home crowd on Friday night: their season is on the line, they're at home, and they have to win to keep any hope alive. Even if they fall short, a team playing for its finals life tends to keep these things close. What gives me pause is last week. Manly were woeful against the Storm, blown off the park 42-20 in a game that was Melbourne's season on the line, and that is the risk with backing them to keep the margin inside 10 points. But I think 10.5 is the right number and I trust the must-win factor to drag a response out of them.
On the total, the line sits at 50.5 and both sides lean under. The Dolphins have gone under in seven of their nine on the road, and since Kieran Foran took over as coach Manly have gone under in six of their seven home games. What keeps me off it as a play is the head to head, which has been wild: three of the four meetings between these sides have produced seventy points or more. Manly's last three overall have sailed over as well, 70, 60 and 62, as their defence has leaked during this losing run, so the over is the obvious public play. Even so, I think the under has the better chance here. With their season on the line the Sea Eagles have to tighten up in defence to get anywhere near winning this, and a finals-like game for a team fighting for its life tends to grind lower more often than not. I lean under without playing it.
Best Bet: Sea Eagles +10.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs
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Two old rivals who always seem to serve one up, and with finals spots in play I expect another. The Bulldogs sit ninth, two points outside the eight. Win here and they draw level with Souths on competition points, though they would still trail on differential, and they have one eye on the Cowboys above them, who are guaranteed an additional two competition points with a bye still in hand. It is a genuine must-win if they want to be playing in September.
Last week will still sting. The Dogs went to sleep late and let the Roosters pinch it with a try near the death, an 18-20 loss in a game they were good enough to close out. That aside they had been flying, three wins on the bounce and six of seven before that. Souths, for their part, nearly threw one away, leading the Eels 28-0 at the break after a superb first half before conceding 24 unanswered and hanging on 28-24. It would not have been a comfortable week in the burrow, so I expect them to come out firing.
On the team news, the Bulldogs are close to full strength with their only change Sitili Tupouniua out on a hamstring, which barely dents them. Souths, though, have been hit in the halves. Ashton Ward is gone for the season and Jamie Humphreys is out with an ankle, so Jayden Sullivan comes in at halfback alongside Cody Walker. Sullivan has a bit of x-factor about him, but he can also be caught out defensively, and with ball carriers as dynamic as Viliame Kikau and Jacob Preston on either edge, I think he will be a target.
I like the Bulldogs at 3.5. They will be up for this one in front of their home crowd, Stephen Crichton has dragged this side back into contention from five-eighth, and his combination with Lachlan Galvin is getting better every week. The packs look even to me, and games like this tend to be won through the middle, where Cameron Murray's experience keeps Souths in the fight. It is Bulldogs or nothing for me here, though Souths are unpredictable enough to keep me honest.
The total sits at 42.5 and I lean under without playing it. This has the feel of a finals game, two sides scrapping for their seasons, and that kind of night at Accor tends to drag the scoring down. Three of the last four in this fixture have gone under. What keeps me off it is Souths, who have gone over in five of their last six, but the Bulldogs' defence has been the story of their run, only two of their last nine games going over. The weather looks fine so there is nothing there to strip points. I expect a tighter, more disciplined effort from Souths after last week, and with the Dogs solid at the other end the under is where I land, as a no play.
Best Bet: Bulldogs -3.5 $1.85 (1 unit)
Sharks vs Raiders
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The Sharks looked a lock for the top four, and then the Dragons came along and tipped over the apple cart. Cronulla were dreadful last week, beaten 24-16 by the competition's bottom side, and nobody saw it coming. This is a big bounce-back spot. If they want to stay in the four, let alone keep any hope of climbing into the top two, they need to be a long way better than that.
The Raiders are the opposite story. Minor premiers last year, their 2026 has unravelled, and while a late four-game surge gave them a flicker, they left it too late. Last week's loss to the Knights all but ended it and, realistically, their season is done. That is both the danger and the opportunity here. Sides whose seasons are over can drop off a cliff against opponents with everything to play for, though every so often, with nothing to lose, they throw one up as a blockbuster.
On the team news, the Sharks are without Jesse Ramien (pectoral) and the suspended Addin Fonua-Blake, so there is a reshuffle through the middle and the outside backs, with KL Iro back from concussion at centre and Oregon Kaufusi into the front row. The Raiders lose Corey Horsburgh, whose late send-off against the Knights may well have been his last act in a Canberra jersey, and Simi Sasagi, rested ahead of shoulder surgery, with Ata Mariota shifting to prop and Matt Nicholson into the back row.
I really like the Sharks here, and the way I want to back them is at half-time. Cronulla tend to start fast at home, they have led by four or more at the break in five of their eight games at the ground this year, and with their goal-kicking as reliable as it has been a single try and the extras can be enough to clear the line. Given the mood they will be in after last week, I expect them to come out firing and to hold a comfortable lead at the interval. The half-time handicap sits at 4.5, and that is where my play is.
On the full-time spread I lean over the Sharks' 10.5 without playing it. I just think they might ease off once they are clear, or the Raiders might work their way into it late, so the half-time line is the higher-percentage version of the same read.
The total sits at 52.5 and I lean over. The Sharks have gone over in five of their eight afternoon games this season and there are plenty of points in this line-up. What keeps me off it is the weather. There is rain about Sydney on Saturday, forecast to clear before the 3pm kick-off but not by much, and that is enough uncertainty for me to leave the total alone.
Best Bet: Sharks -4.5 Half-Time Handicap $1.87 (2 units)
Eels vs Cowboys
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The Eels almost pulled off the unthinkable last week, hauling back a 28-0 deficit against the Rabbitohs before falling four points short. Complete it and it would have been the largest comeback in the game's history. They came up shy, but the point stands: this team has fight. They are out of the finals race, yet they keep hanging around in games, and more often than not it is the final pieces, not the effort, that they are missing.
The Cowboys are the ones with everything on it. They are away from home and out of their state, they need the win to keep a finals berth in their own hands, and while they have a bye still up their sleeve, a result to the Sea Eagles or the sides below them would ratchet up the pressure in a hurry. This shapes as a finals-type night for them, even if the urgency does not look that pointed from the outside just yet.
The main change is in the Eels' spine, with Apa Twidle coming in at fullback, so there is a fresh combination to bed down at the back. The Cowboys are close to unchanged from the side that beat the Titans, Reed Mahoney returning from concussion at hooker and Soni Luke shifting to the bench.
Earlier in the week this line was 6.5 and I wish I had taken the Eels then, because +6.5 was the number I wanted. It is 5.5 now, and I still lean to Parramatta with the start. But what I like most is the margin. This fixture has been consistently tight, the last six meetings all decided by eight points or fewer, and you have to go back to early 2022 for the last time it was not. Add the Eels' grit to what is riding on this for the Cowboys and I do not see it blowing open either way, even though both teams have been in their share of lopsided games this season. So the play is either team to win by 1 to 10.
On the total I lean under without playing it. These two are genuinely unpredictable, it could be a 14-12 arm-wrestle or a 36-34 shootout depending on which versions turn up, and I do not have a strong feel. What tips me under is the season-long picture. The Eels had gone under nine times in a row before last week, and I am putting that 52-point game down as a flash in the pan rather than a change of trend. The Cowboys have gone under in thirteen of their twenty-one games this season and in three of their four trips to Sydney. On those records the under is where I land, without any real conviction.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $2.05 (1.5 units)
Broncos vs Warriors
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Brisbane's season has been over for a while, and they are playing like a side with nothing to lose. Last week's 72-point epic with the Dolphins told the story: out to a 24-0 lead inside 20 minutes, Ezra Mam helping himself to a first-half hat-trick, only to be reeled in and beaten 40-32. The attack can hurt anyone, the defence can be got at, and they are throwing caution to the wind. That makes them dangerous and unreliable in the same breath. They could win this big or lose it big.
The Warriors were superb last week, blowing the Panthers off the park and out to a 22-0 lead early in the second half before a couple of late wobbles, closing it out convincingly against a side that had been coming home with a wet sail. They needed that one. For me this looms as a possible let-down spot. Yes, they torched the Broncos by 30 in Magic Round back in May, but that is a while ago now and this is a different night.
Both sides name unchanged starting line-ups, so there is nothing to factor in there.
I do not have a strong feel for the result, and it is worth being honest about that. Brisbane can score even against a defence as good as the Warriors', the Warriors can score against a Broncos side that has struggled to hold anyone out, and I just do not see this becoming a gritty, low-possession grind. That points me to the over. The Warriors are likely to throw it around and get out of dodge, the Broncos will keep coming, and the points should be there. It is a small play, and one to tread carefully with given how unpredictable Brisbane are, but the over is where I am.
I also lean to the Broncos with the 7.5 start without playing it. There is still a lot of talent in that side, Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan up front, Reece Walsh and Mam in behind, and at home with nothing to lose they are capable of pinching it. I just like the over a fraction more.
Best Bet: Over 46.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Knights vs Titans
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The Knights have had an impressive season, comfortably beyond where I had them, and they arrive on the back of consecutive away wins in Brisbane and Canberra. That run came after a stretch of agonising footy, three straight losses by two, two and one, so they have learned to turn the tight ones their way of late. They also welcome back Bradman Best and Phoenix Crossland, who missed the Canberra win with calf issues.
The Titans have been done for a long while. They were well beaten at home in each of the last two weeks, by the Warriors and then the Cowboys, though it is worth remembering they won the two before that against the Sea Eagles and the Dragons. They are unpredictable and they can score, which is exactly what makes laying a big number against them uncomfortable.
I think the Knights win this. Whether they win it by enough is another question, and part of that hangs on Friday night. If the Dolphins slip up against the Sea Eagles, Newcastle suddenly have a reason to chase points and make up ground. There is also rain forecast around Newcastle on Sunday, a 20 per cent chance hanging about for most of the day.
Where I land is the under. I expect the Knights to be sound defensively, they have gone under in six of their last eight, the Titans have gone under in five of their last eight and in 75% of their games across the season, and the forecast rain only helps the case. It is a small play given the weather and the fact the Dolphins game has not been played, but that is where I am.
Best Bet: Under 50.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Wests Tigers vs Dragons
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Cast your mind back to the opening month and the Wests Tigers were flying, up near the top of the table alongside the Knights after the first handful of rounds. How that has turned. They are on a seven-game losing streak, have won just twice since Round 8, and, remarkably, have not scored more than 13 points in a game since Round 17. That is a hard thing to do in the modern game. They at least arrive off a bye, having pushed the Eels to within three in their last outing before the week off.
The Dragons, for a side that has spent the year staring down the wooden spoon, have quietly looked the better of these two of late. They are already building for next year and it shows, a young forward pack that is hard to break down and a backline that is starting to finish the chances it creates. There are points in them now. They have also had a swag of narrow losses this season, games they might have won, and the story of their year has been inconsistency rather than a lack of quality.
Neither side has anything but pride left to play for. The line opened with the Dragons at 1.5 and, in truth, there is nothing between them, with both at $1.90 to win outright. So I am leaving the spread alone and simply taking the Dragons in the head-to-head. My hesitation is that same inconsistency, along with the fact the Tigers have had a bye to regroup and nearly caused a boilover against the Eels before it, so they may be pulling something together late in the piece. That keeps this measured rather than a strong play.
I also lean under. I expect a low-scoring, scratchy affair, this fixture has tended to stay under, and with rain forecast around for much of Sunday the case only firms up. The under at 47.5 is in play, though the Dragons to win is my bet.
Best Bet: Dragons to Win $1.90 (1.5 units)
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