Season Tracker
Through 25 rounds, we're sitting at +52.34 units for the season with an overall record of 122-85 from 207 Best Bets (58.94%). Round 25 went 5-5 for -1.00 units. The Panthers-Storm under, the Raiders-Broncos and Knights-Sea Eagles overs, and both Titans-Sharks plays all landed, while the Bulldogs blowing the Dragons off the park busted the margin and under plays and the Wests Tigers pinching an upset over the Roosters killed the over. Still comfortably in the green with the finals in sight.
The Raiders have the bye. The Broncos host the Storm to open the round on Thursday night, and three sides are laying double figures this week. Eight games and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.
Broncos vs Storm
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Both these seasons are done, but do not write this one off. Brisbane arrive off a stunning comeback win in Canberra, a 34-30 result that was their second victory since Round 8, and for a side that is mathematically out they have shown plenty of fight. The Storm have lost four of their last five, yet they pushed the Panthers all the way at home last week, an eight-point loss with no shortage of effort. Two proud clubs playing for pride, and in truth, anything can happen.
On the team news, the Storm get a big one back with Jahrome Hughes returning at halfback after a hamstring, which shifts Tyran Wishart to the centres in place of Jack Howarth, done for the year with a shoulder. Brisbane are unchanged from Canberra, and this is their last home game of the season.
The Storm are 3.5 favourites, and I lean to the Broncos with the points without playing it. Melbourne have been poor on the road, covering just three of ten games outside their own patch and only two of five as an away favourite, and both these teams are dreadful against the line anyway, the Broncos 9-13 (41%) and the Storm 8-14 (36%). There is simply no conviction to be had on the spread.
The total sits at 49.5 and this is where the contradictions really pile up. The fixture has gone under in three of the last five, the Broncos have gone under in 64% of their games and the Storm in 45%, and on recent form the Broncos have cleared the total just three times in ten while the Storm have managed five. Against all that, I lean the over on pure narrative: two sides with nothing left to lose tend to throw the ball around, and I can see this one opening up. But it is a lean and nothing more.
Where I do land is either team to win by 1 to 10. I just do not see this being a blowout either way. Both sides showed real fight last week, the Broncos playing at home for the last time this year could well pinch it, and there is genuine value in them at $2.25 in the head-to-head if you want it, though it is not a strong enough spot for me to take the outright. The tighter, safer version of that read is the margin, so that is my play.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $1.95 (1 unit)
Sea Eagles vs Dragons
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Manly are hard to read. They snapped a six-game losing streak last week with a surprise win over Newcastle, and while they technically still have a finals sniff, they have too much to do, and a single Cowboys win, which looks likely this weekend, ends it. This is their last game at Brookvale for the season before they finish up over in New Zealand against the Warriors. The Dragons, meanwhile, looked to be travelling alright and then let a struggling Bulldogs side hang 44 on them last week. Putting a finger on either team right now is not easy.
On the team news, the Dragons lose hooker Jacob Liddle to a calf injury, which pushes Damien Cook back into the starting side, while Manly are without Tolutau Koula (ankle), opening a centre spot for Josh Feledy.
Manly are 8.5 favourites and I lean to the Dragons with the points, without playing it. From Round 13 onward the Dragons have covered in eight of their last eleven, and the only three they did not cover were the only games they lost by more than eight. They keep games close and bounce back well from poor performances, and with Manly needing only to win here, not to win big, the points look worth having. It stays a lean.
The total is 48.5, and just about everything points under. The Sea Eagles have gone under in 59% of their games and the Dragons in 73%, this fixture has cleared 48 points just once in its last seven meetings, that exception the 64-point game between them last year, and Manly's evening games at Brookvale have gone over just three of seven across the last two years. The Sea Eagles have gone over in four of their last five and the Dragons under in three of theirs, so there are contradictions, but the weight of the numbers is under. I lean that way without playing it.
Where I land is the Dragons over the first-half total of 9.5. That line looks a touch low for a side coming off a first-half shutout against the Bulldogs. Teams held scoreless in the first half this season have bounced back to double figures before the break the following week 61% of the time, and Manly have been leaking early, conceding an average of 19.2 first-half points across their last five. Put those together and 9.5 is a number I want to be over.
Best Bet: Dragons 1st Half Over 9.5 $1.75 (1 unit)