Both these teams' seasons are done, so this one is all for pride, and there are no notable changes to either squad. The Bulldogs had their year ended last week with a 24-10 loss to the Panthers, but I took plenty out of that performance. They hung tough, had their periods on top, and their defence stood up to hold a quality Panthers side to 24. The Broncos, by contrast, were blown out of the water by the Storm, a game I had tipped to be close and which was anything but. So I am leaning far more on what the Bulldogs showed than on anything the Broncos did.
I like the Bulldogs to cover the 10.5. It is a lot of points to lay, and I will not pretend otherwise, but off the back of that defensive effort, and against a Broncos side heading nowhere and leaking points, I am happy to back Canterbury to win this by double figures. I am keeping it light, though, because the play flies in the face of the fixture history: the Broncos have won eight of the last nine meetings between these two. Perhaps the pressure comes off them away from Brisbane, I am not sure, but I trust the Bulldogs' current form far more than I trust Brisbane's right now, so I am siding with recent form over the head-to-head.
The total is where it gets contradictory. Everything in the form points under: both teams have gone under in 61% of their games, the Bulldogs are averaging just 41.7 points a game across their fixtures and the Broncos 47.6. And yet I lean the other way. The Broncos have conceded 30 or more in each of their last five games, their defence has not impressed me at all, and a side with nothing to lose tends to throw the ball around rather than go down wondering. So I lean the over, even as the numbers argue against it, and it stays a lean.
Best Bet: Bulldogs -10.5 $1.94 (1 unit)
Titans vs Dolphins
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The Dolphins have all but locked up third spot and, with it, a first-week final away to either the Panthers or the Warriors. They have named a near full-strength side, losing only Selwyn Cobbo to an ankle injury and bringing Tevita Naufahu onto the wing. The Titans get Beau Fermor back from a rib injury but lose hooker Oliver Pascoe to concussion, with Luke Sommerton taking the No.9.
The form line could hardly be more lopsided. The Titans have lost five in a row, the Dolphins have won six on the trot, four of those by 14 or more, and they thoroughly deserve where they sit on the ladder. This is a side flying at exactly the right time, and I can see them winning this comfortably.
I like the Dolphins to cover the 13.5, off the back of that form and against a Titans side with nothing left to play for but pride. It is a small play, and there are two reasons for that. The first is the size of the line: if the Dolphins build a big lead they may empty the bench and give their starters a breather with finals a week away. The second is that big home underdogs have been no easy fade this year, with home teams getting 10.5 or more at their own venue splitting exactly 9-9 against the spread, so the Titans copping a large number at home is a live cover chance.
The total is a big one at 57.5, and after plenty of back and forth I lean over without playing it. Almost everything in the numbers points under: this fixture has cleared this number just once in seven meetings, the Titans have gone over in only 35% of their games this season and the Dolphins in only 39% of theirs, and the Dolphins' defence has been outstanding of late, conceding just 28 points across their last three weeks against the Sea Eagles, Eels and Roosters. What tips me the other way is the Titans: their last three have all gone over, and I simply do not trust their defence right now. In good conditions, with the Dolphins flying and out to make a statement, I can see the points come, so I lean over, though with the weight of the numbers against it, it stays a lean.
Best Bet: Dolphins -13.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Rabbitohs vs Roosters
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This is usually one of the great Round 27 fixtures, a cross-town derby with plenty on the line. Not this year, at least not on one side of it. The Roosters are locked into the top four and Trent Robinson has rested virtually his entire team ahead of the qualifying final: James Tedesco, Daly Cherry-Evans, Reece Robson, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Robert Toia, Billy Smith, Naufahu Whyte, Siua Wong and Nat Butcher are all out, with Sam Walker sidelined by an ankle injury on top. What runs out at Allianz is a side of reserve graders, rookies and debutants, a lot like the understrength team the Dolphins put 48-10 on back in Round 15.
The Rabbitohs, by contrast, are near full strength and have everything to play for. Latrell Mitchell returns to the starting side at centre for the first time since Round 9, Jai Arrow runs out at five-eighth for his 100th game in what shapes as an emotional evening for the club, and Souths need the win to lock up a home elimination final. Lose, and they slip to seventh and a trip to Newcastle. This has one-way traffic written all over it.
The line is a huge one at 23.5, and with a mismatch this stark I do lean the Rabbitohs to cover it, without playing the full-game line.
My favourite play in this game is the Rabbitohs to lead at half-time by 12 or more, the first-half handicap at -11.5. The reason I want the first half rather than the full 80 is the backdoor-cover risk: if Souths race to a big lead, this Roosters outfit can nick a few late points and the scoring tends to dry up once the result is beyond doubt. Souths came out firing last week, 28-6 up at the break against the Titans, and I expect a similar fast start against a makeshift opponent. I would rather bank the lead at half-time than sweat the last 20 minutes.
The total sits at 55.5 and I am staying well clear of it. Only three of the last ten meetings between these sides have gone over the total, but in truth I am not reading anything into the history here, because a Roosters side this heavily rested makes the total a lottery. If anything I lean the over, but it is a firm no-play.
Best Bet: Rabbitohs -11.5 First Half $1.87 (1.5 units)
Warriors vs Sea Eagles
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The Warriors have locked up a top-two spot and are chasing the minor premiership, so they have plenty to play for. They will go in knowing the equation, and at this stage it likely shapes as this: finish second and it is a home qualifying final against the third-placed Dolphins; take the minor premiership and they host the Roosters in fourth, a spot that will not be locked until later in the weekend with the Panthers still to play. On the team news, they are resting Wayde Egan and Kurt Capewell, with Sam Healey to hooker and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava into the back row, but they get back Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad from suspension along with Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita from injury, so the spine and halves are freshened rather than weakened. The Sea Eagles are unchanged from the side that beat the Dragons.
On the line I lean to the Sea Eagles with the points, without playing it. Manly are in form, having scored 44 in each of their last two against the Knights and Dragons, and they are playing good footy. Normally this is a spot I love, fading the Warriors as a double-digit home favourite, given they were 0-11 covering those lines under Webster before last week. Two things hold me back this time: they finally broke that streak against the Knights, even if they were lucky to do so after a 13th-minute send-off, and the minor premiership on the line gives them every reason to fire. There is a live backdoor angle, though: with the finals a week away, if the Warriors build a lead they are likely to spell their big middle forwards in James Fisher-Harris, Mitchell Barnett and Erin Clark, and that is exactly when Manly could find room through the middle and around the edges to sneak back inside the line. Eleven and a half is a lot to lay given the Warriors' record as a big home favourite, so I lean to the Sea Eagles and the 11.5.
My play here is the over 49.5. The Warriors' defence has leaked lately, conceding an average of 29 points over their last two games, so we may well see a bigger defensive effort from them this week, but even then, both these sides can score. The Sea Eagles have gone over in five of their last six, the Warriors have gone over in their last two and have posted 40 or more in four of their last five, and the last two meetings between them have both cleared this number, with 52 and 53 points. The contradiction is that both have been under teams across the season, the Warriors 65% and the Sea Eagles 57%, and it is only a small play because if Manly slip back into the side they were between Rounds 18 and 24 the over is in trouble. But with Manly's defence shaky and the Warriors scoring freely, I will take the points.
Best Bet: Over 49.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
Cowboys vs Raiders
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The Cowboys secured their finals spot by beating the Wests Tigers last week. I will admit it is a bit of a surprise to me, I have not been high on this side all year, but they have done enough and deserve their place in the eight. For the Raiders it is a dead rubber to close out a hugely disappointing season for last year's minor premiers, and it doubles as Josh Papali'i's final game, the club's most-capped player of all time bowing out.
On the team news, the Cowboys are without Jeremiah Nanai (knee) and Griffin Neame (turf toe), both managed with finals locked in, plus Zac Laybutt through concussion, with John Bateman and Coen Hess into the pack, Bateman coming in for his first start of the season in what could be his final NRL game before he heads back to the Super League. The Raiders hand a debut to halfback Coby Black, with Ethan Sanders rested, welcome back Noah Martin and Morgan Smithies from injury, and are without Corey Horsburgh, Zac Hosking and Savelio Tamale.
On the line I lean to the Raiders and the points, without playing it. Coming off a bye at this stage of the season can only help them, much as it helped the Cowboys, who came off their own bye to get the job done against the Tigers last week. Canberra have been competitive too, a four-game winning streak before losing three of their last four, a side that can get a result but has lacked consistency. With the Cowboys perhaps already glancing towards next week, 5.5 looks a touch much, so it is a narrative lean only.
The total sits at 55.5 and I lean over, again without playing it. Both these teams have been under sides this year, the Cowboys 61% and the Raiders 52%, and the Cowboys' evening games have come in under in six of eight, 75%. What pulls me the other way is Canberra: since their season went on the line they have thrown the ball around, going over in six of their last seven and clearing 55 points in five of them. The Cowboys' defence has not been all that convincing lately, and while they handled the Tigers, I am not reading too much into that given the opposition. So the over is where I lean.
Where I land is either team to win by 1 to 10. I just do not see this being a blowout either way, two sides fairly evenly matched on the night with the result mattering more to Canberra's pride than to the Cowboys' ladder position.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $2.10 (1.5 units)
Sharks vs Storm
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The Sharks are locked into fifth and have one eye firmly on their home elimination final against the Cowboys next week, so they have rested a swathe of their spine. Nicho Hynes and Blayke Brailey are both being rested, Teig Wilton too, and with Braydon Trindall still sidelined by injury they roll out a heavily reshuffled spine: Niwhai Puru shifts to halfback, debutant Riley Pollard comes in at five-eighth and Hohepa Puru starts at hooker, with a further debut for Michael Gabrael in the centres. The Storm, by contrast, are near full strength, Craig Bellamy naming an unchanged starting side fresh off a convincing 46-20 win away in Brisbane, with Tyran Wishart lining up for his 100th and final game for the club.
I lean to the Storm and the 9.5, without playing it. When you look at the Sharks' backline and a new, inexperienced halves pairing, the obvious question is where their points come from tonight. The Storm's defence has not been the best this season, but they have an experienced spine in Munster, Hughes and Grant that knows how to close a game out. I do not love laying a big number against a home underdog, which is why I keep it to a lean, but the gulf in personnel is hard to look past.
Where I do land, and where I see the best value in this game, is the Sharks' team total to stay under 21.5. It is a mark they have cleared just once in their last four games, the exception a 30-point night against the Titans on the Gold Coast, with 16, 20 and 18 in the others. The Storm have been miserly in defence lately too, conceding no more than 22 in each of their last three, and that was to the Panthers, with both the Sea Eagles and Broncos held to 20. This is a weaker Sharks attack than any of those sides, and while there is a chance the youngsters throw caution to the wind and have a real crack, I am happy to back a makeshift spine to fall short of 22 against a pack and defence this experienced.
As for the game total of 51.5, I will be honest that I do not have a strong feel. The logic cuts against itself: if the Sharks are held under 21.5, the Storm have plenty of points in them and could win this by 16 or more, which would drag it over. So if forced to choose I lean over, but it is a lean only and not a play.
Best Bet: Sharks Team Total Under 21.5 $1.91 (1.5 units)
Dragons vs Eels
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The Dragons have had a season to forget, just four wins from 23 and claiming the 2026 wooden spoon. The Eels, meanwhile, have found some form, winning three of their last five, including a convincing 20-point win over the Sharks at home last week, though their travel has been patchy with away losses to the Rabbitohs and Dolphins in that run.
On the line I lean to the Eels to cover the 3.5, without playing it. The number is a fair one, Mitch Moses is in his best form of the season and should have no trouble directing them around the park, and I simply cannot bring myself to back the Dragons, who have let me down all year with silly errors and soft tries that hand the opposition points. The caveat is that this Dragons side probably has one more big performance in them and could push this close at home, so it stays a lean.
The total is a big one at 56.5 and I lean under, again without playing it. This fixture rarely gets near this sort of number, only one of the last eight meetings has cleared it, back in 2022. The Dragons have leaked badly of late, conceding 44 in each of the last two weeks, yet remarkably they have gone over 56.5 just three times all season, against the Roosters, Storm and Bulldogs, and both teams are under sides on the year, the Dragons 70% and the Eels 61%. The Eels going over in three of their last four is the contradiction, but the weight of it points under.
Where I land is either team to win by 1 to 10, a light play. These sides have been unpredictable and a blowout is not out of the question, but there is real history for the tight result: three of the last four meetings between them have been decided by 1 to 10 points. The Eels are the better and more organised side, the Dragons are capable of lifting for one last home performance, and at the current price that margin is where I see the value.
Best Bet: Either Team to Win by 1-10 $2.05 (1 unit)
Panthers vs Wests Tigers
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This is a hard one to pick, and much of that comes down to the Panthers. The side they field could look quite different depending on how the earlier results fall this weekend, the Warriors game in particular. They have already secured a home final, so the open question is really whether finishing first is something they choose to chase, and that, along with how strong a side they field, may not be clear until close to kickoff. On the team news, the mass rest some expected has not landed, with Izack Tago the only player out, so Penrith are close to full strength, though they could still ease off in-game with a home final in hand.
On the line I lean to the Panthers to cover the 19.5, without playing it. The uncertainty around what they field and whether they spell players late keeps it a lean. Worth remembering too that Penrith hammered the Wests Tigers 68-0 earlier this season, and sides tend to remember a result like that and come looking to right some wrongs. I do not think the Tigers win this by any means, but I would not bank on that sort of margin a second time.
Where I land is the under 48.5, a small play given all the uncertainty. Penrith have been outstanding in defence, conceding no more than 14 points in each of their last three, and the Tigers offer little going the other way: they have not scored more than 14 against the Panthers in the last five meetings, and have topped 14 points in just two of their last nine games. Even if Penrith empty the bench late, I expect their defensive structure to hold. And there is a simple logic to the under: you are effectively in front from kickoff, needing only the scoring to stay in check. The big unknown is personnel, since who actually lines up and whether Penrith spell players could push the total either way, which is exactly why I am keeping the stake light.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 $1.90 (1 unit)
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