Season Tracker
Through 26 rounds, we're sitting at +44.09 units for the season with an overall record of 124-93 from 217 Best Bets (57.14%). Round 26 was a rough one, 2 from 10 for -8.25 units. The Rabbitohs covering the 10.5 and the Titans-Rabbitohs over both landed, but the trend plays all broke: the Cowboys-Wests Tigers fixture went under for the first time since 2022, the Warriors finally covered a big home line under Webster, the Dolphins upset the Roosters, and the Dragons were held scoreless in the first half. Still well in the green heading into the final regular round.
The Knights have the bye. Round 27 is the final regular round, with the Bulldogs hosting the Broncos to open on Thursday night and five sides laying double figures. Eight games and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.
Bulldogs vs Broncos
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Both these teams' seasons are done, so this one is all for pride, and there are no notable changes to either squad. The Bulldogs had their year ended last week with a 24-10 loss to the Panthers, but I took plenty out of that performance. They hung tough, had their periods on top, and their defence stood up to hold a quality Panthers side to 24. The Broncos, by contrast, were blown out of the water by the Storm, a game I had tipped to be close and which was anything but. So I am leaning far more on what the Bulldogs showed than on anything the Broncos did.
I like the Bulldogs to cover the 10.5. It is a lot of points to lay, and I will not pretend otherwise, but off the back of that defensive effort, and against a Broncos side heading nowhere and leaking points, I am happy to back Canterbury to win this by double figures. I am keeping it light, though, because the play flies in the face of the fixture history: the Broncos have won eight of the last nine meetings between these two. Perhaps the pressure comes off them away from Brisbane, I am not sure, but I trust the Bulldogs' current form far more than I trust Brisbane's right now, so I am siding with recent form over the head-to-head.
The total is where it gets contradictory. Everything in the form points under: both teams have gone under in 61% of their games, the Bulldogs are averaging just 41.7 points a game across their fixtures and the Broncos 47.6. And yet I lean the other way. The Broncos have conceded 30 or more in each of their last five games, their defence has not impressed me at all, and a side with nothing to lose tends to throw the ball around rather than go down wondering. So I lean the over, even as the numbers argue against it, and it stays a lean.
Best Bet: Bulldogs -10.5 $1.94 (1 unit)
Titans vs Dolphins
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The Dolphins have all but locked up third spot and, with it, a first-week final away to either the Panthers or the Warriors. They have named a near full-strength side, losing only Selwyn Cobbo to an ankle injury and bringing Tevita Naufahu onto the wing. The Titans get Beau Fermor back from a rib injury but lose hooker Oliver Pascoe to concussion, with Luke Sommerton taking the No.9.
The form line could hardly be more lopsided. The Titans have lost five in a row, the Dolphins have won six on the trot, four of those by 14 or more, and they thoroughly deserve where they sit on the ladder. This is a side flying at exactly the right time, and I can see them winning this comfortably.
I like the Dolphins to cover the 13.5, off the back of that form and against a Titans side with nothing left to play for but pride. It is a small play, and there are two reasons for that. The first is the size of the line: if the Dolphins build a big lead they may empty the bench and give their starters a breather with finals a week away. The second is that big home underdogs have been no easy fade this year, with home teams getting 10.5 or more at their own venue splitting exactly 9-9 against the spread, so the Titans copping a large number at home is a live cover chance.
The total is a big one at 57.5, and after plenty of back and forth I lean over without playing it. Almost everything in the numbers points under: this fixture has cleared this number just once in seven meetings, the Titans have gone over in only 35% of their games this season and the Dolphins in only 39% of theirs, and the Dolphins' defence has been outstanding of late, conceding just 28 points across their last three weeks against the Sea Eagles, Eels and Roosters. What tips me the other way is the Titans: their last three have all gone over, and I simply do not trust their defence right now. In good conditions, with the Dolphins flying and out to make a statement, I can see the points come, so I lean over, though with the weight of the numbers against it, it stays a lean.
Best Bet: Dolphins -13.5 $1.90 (1 unit)