NRL Round 3 2026 Preview & Tips

Season Tracker

Through two rounds, we're sitting at +14.90 units for the season. Round 2 added +5.55 to the +9.35 banked in Round 1, with 13 of 16 Best Bets landing across the two weeks. The misses in Round 2 were the Dragons +8.5 (Storm ran away with it late) and Dolphins -9.5 (won by just 4). Plenty of football still to play.

Round 2 confirmed a few things and threw a few curve balls. The Panthers look untouchable and the Storm are flying. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.

Raiders vs Bulldogs

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The Raiders have had the edge in this matchup, winning 6 of the last 8 meetings. The Bulldogs did win the most recent clash 32-20, but historically this is a tight fixture with the favourite covering just 25% of the time. The average total sits at 46.3 points. Canberra are -1.5 with a total of 47.5.

Canberra have been strong at home, averaging over 30 points per game there in 2025. The Bulldogs tend to play in lower scoring games away from home, with just 44% of those games going over the total across the past five seasons.

The Bulldogs come in fresh off a bye, while the Raiders return home after a disappointing loss to the Warriors. I expect a response from Canberra here, especially given they dropped two finals at home last season and also let a 20-0 lead slip against the Bulldogs in this matchup last year.

I don't have a strong feel for this game. The Bulldogs spine looks more settled, but the Raiders at home in a bounce back spot is enough for me to lean their way. On the total, I lean slightly over. There's a chance of showers, but weather hasn't had as much impact on scoring with the increased pace of play. The Bulldogs defended well in Round 1, but the Raiders have been involved in higher scoring games and I think they can find points here.

Roosters vs Panthers

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One of the most one-sided matchups in the NRL. The Panthers have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, with the Roosters' only win coming in a 38-32 upset in 2025. Penrith would have covered a similar line in 4 of the last 5 matchups. They're -5.5 here with a total of 45.5.

The Roosters are coming off a hard fought win over the Rabbitohs in a game that had a unique feel with the Alex Johnston record moment and crowd scenes. Reece Robson will make his Roosters debut this week after missing the first couple of games through injury. He'll be a welcome inclusion.

The Panthers, however, have been the benchmark team to start the season. They're 2-0 and have conceded just 6 points across those two games, including dominant wins over the Broncos and Sharks. This will be their third game against a 2025 finals side and they look clearly the best team in the competition right now.

I lean Panthers on the spread, but not with a great deal of confidence. The Roosters have named a strong side, they're at home, and home underdogs have covered at a high rate in recent seasons.

The total is the stronger angle. Penrith's defence has been elite to start the year and continues to suffocate even strong attacking sides. Friday night games have also trended heavily under, hitting at over 70% across the past two seasons. Even with good conditions forecast and attacking weapons on both sides, this shapes as a tight, controlled game.

Storm vs Broncos

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A rematch of last year's Grand Final where the Broncos came out on top 26-22. The Storm have had the edge in this fixture overall, leading the H2H 10-3 since 2020. Melbourne are -9.5 with a total of 54.5.

The Storm are averaging 49 points per game through two rounds and look elite on both sides of the ball. The Broncos, on the other hand, are conceding 33 points per game and have not been able to control games defensively.

There are some key team changes. Melbourne are largely unchanged, with MacDonald coming in for the injured Lisati. The Broncos lose Reynolds, with Hunt stepping into the halves, and have reshuffled their backline with Shibasaki out, Mariner moving to centre and Anderson onto the wing. That may help defensively, but it's a big adjustment.

I like the Storm here. They're at home, in form, and their attack looks far too sharp for a Broncos defence that has been well below par to start the season.

The total is high, but I still lean over. Historically this fixture has produced points and current form suggests that continues. Even with the strong Friday night under trend, it's hard to see Brisbane improving enough defensively in one week to keep this game low scoring. Reece Walsh is the wildcard. If he finds his best form, the Broncos can contribute enough points to push this game over or even pull off an unlikely win.

Knights vs Warriors

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Historically a low scoring, tight matchup. Since 2020 the H2H is split 6-6, but the under has landed in 10 of 12 meetings with an average total of just 35.1 points. The Warriors have won the last four, but the Knights have generally been competitive, especially at home. The Warriors are -6.5 with a total of 51.5.

Both teams come in 2-0 to start the season. The Warriors have been dominant, averaging 41 points per game, while the Knights have also looked improved with Dylan Brown making an immediate impact.

This week looks very different for Newcastle though. Both Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown are out, which is a huge loss to their attack. What stood out last week was how the Knights struggled without them, with the second half finishing 6-6 when neither was on the field.

The Warriors have been excellent, including putting up big numbers in wet conditions last week, but this is their first away game of the season and a tougher test in Newcastle.

I lean Warriors given their form and the key outs for the Knights, but home underdogs are always dangerous in this spot. The total is the play I like most. The historical trend is heavily towards the under and this week's conditions add further support, with rain and possible thunderstorms forecast. With the Knights missing key attacking players and already showing they can struggle to score without them, this sets up as a lower scoring game despite both teams' strong starts.

Sharks vs Dolphins

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Small H2H sample with these teams meeting just three times since 2023. The Dolphins lead 2-1, with Cronulla being heavy favourites in two of those games and only winning one. The Sharks are -7.5 here with a total of 55.5.

Both teams sit at 1-1 to start the season, with their wins coming against the Titans. The Sharks were completely outclassed by the Panthers last week, while the Dolphins were far from convincing in a scrappy win.

Cronulla return home where they have been one of the best teams in the competition against the spread, going 34-19 ATS over the past five seasons and 10-3 at home in 2025. They've also covered at 79% since the start of last season. With both teams unchanged, I lean Sharks in a bounce back spot at home where they've consistently performed.

The total is the clearer angle. At 55.5, this is one of the highest numbers on the board and looks inflated given current form. Both teams are coming off low scoring performances and the Dolphins attack in particular has looked clunky to start the season. Weather also plays a role here with wet conditions and potential thunderstorms forecast, which should slow the game down.

Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers

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The Rabbitohs have dominated this fixture, winning 9 of the last 11 meetings. That said, the Tigers have consistently kept games closer than expected with the underdog covering 64% of the time. This game is at Gosford rather than a true South Sydney home game, which levels things slightly. Souths are -5.5 with a total of 53.5.

Souths come into this off a tough loss to the Roosters where they were right in the contest. The Alex Johnston record moment had momentum firmly in their favour but the crowd pitch invasion likely disrupted things. There were still positives, particularly the improvement in defence from Round 1. Their left edge with Fifita, Latrell and Johnston looks especially dangerous.

The Tigers were outstanding in their opener, putting 44 on the Cowboys, but that came at Leichhardt against a struggling side. There's a lot of hype around them, but this is a step up in class.

I think this line is a slight overreaction to the Tigers' fast start. With Souths improving defensively, I make this line a bit higher.

On the total, I initially liked the over given both teams' attacking output, but the weather has shifted my view. Over the last four years there have been seven games in Gosford and they've gone 5-2 to the over, but against this week's line those games would be 4-3 to the over. Closer to a coin flip than the trend first suggests.

Eels vs Dragons

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An even matchup historically. The H2H is split 3-3 since 2020, although the Dragons have won the last two meetings. The favourite has only covered 2 of those 6 games and the underdog has generally been the better play. The average total sits at 45.2 points. The Eels are -7.5 here with a total of 54.5.

Parramatta come in off a strong comeback win over the Broncos, but their season has been volatile with games averaging 64 total points so far. The Dragons are 0-2 but have been competitive.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of the Eels this season, but -7.5 feels too big in this matchup. The Dragons were leading the Storm 20-18 after 60 minutes last week before losing control late, particularly after Gutherson left the field. I expect a response here, especially defensively.

On the total, I lean under. Eels games have been high scoring to start the year, but those came against top level opposition and game flow played a big role. Historically this fixture trends under and if the Dragons are to cover, it likely comes in a lower scoring game. Through 120 minutes this season, the Dragons had only conceded 33 points before things got away from them late. That defensive effort is encouraging. The only hesitation is the Sunday afternoon slot in good conditions with the faster pace of play this season, but I'm sticking with the spread play.

Cowboys vs Titans

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Both teams come into this game 0-2 and have looked well below par to start the season. The Cowboys are averaging just 17 points per game while conceding 36, while the Titans are even worse offensively, averaging only 12 points per game. The Cowboys are -5.5 here with a total of 57.5.

Historically, North Queensland have had the edge in this fixture, leading the H2H 7-5 and winning the last four straight. The home side has also won 8 of the 12 meetings, which is important with this game in Townsville where the Cowboys traditionally perform better.

There are still some unknowns around both teams. Scott Drinkwater is reportedly carrying an injury which could lead to a late reshuffle, while the Titans may welcome back Jayden Campbell which would significantly boost their attack.

I don't trust either side at this stage, but with the Cowboys at home and the stronger historical record in this matchup, that's the only way I can lean.

The total stands out as extremely high. The H2H average is just 45.3 and only one of the 12 meetings has gone over this number. Even with both teams struggling defensively, neither attack has shown enough to justify a total this big. With both teams under pressure, this may lead to a more controlled game. The number looks inflated.