Season Tracker
Through four rounds, we're sitting at +18.45 units for the season. Round 4 banked another +3.20 with five wins and three losses. The Roosters demolition of Manly and the Titans/Dragons under were the standouts, while the Broncos beating the Dolphins comfortably killed the over there. The Warriors falling at home to the Tigers was the most surprising loss of the round.
The Panthers continue to roll, the Tigers are the form team of the competition, and the Broncos look to have steadied after their rough start. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.
Dolphins vs Sea Eagles
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One of the highest scoring matchups in the NRL. All three meetings since 2023 have gone over and averaged a massive 72.7 total points. The Sea Eagles lead the H2H 2-1, but both of those wins came at Brookvale. The Dolphins are -10.5 here with a total of 50.5.
Manly are in serious trouble to start the season. They're 0-3, conceding 32.7 points per game, and have now parted ways with coach Anthony Seibold, with Kieran Foran stepping in. It's a tough spot for a new coach who only finished playing last season and the side looks completely out of sorts.
The Dolphins have been inconsistent but are far more stable and return home where they've been strong, covering 67% of games in 2025 and averaging over 32 points per game. Given the current form and the chaos around Manly, it's hard to back them here.
The total is the stronger angle. This matchup has consistently produced points and the current defensive issues for Manly only add to that. The Sea Eagles are conceding heavily and even a moderate Dolphins performance could push this game towards the number. Conditions also look ideal and recent games at Kayo Stadium have been high scoring, averaging over 60 points.
Best Bet: Over 50.5 Total Points $1.90 (2 units)Rabbitohs vs Bulldogs
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One of the great rivalries, fairly even in recent years with Souths leading the H2H 7-4. The Bulldogs have won the last two meetings, including a 32-0 shutout in 2025, but historically this fixture tends to stay tight with the favourite covering just 55% of the time. The Rabbitohs are -1.5 with a total of 46.5.
The Rabbitohs come into this off a bye and have looked the better of the two sides so far. They could easily be 3-0 and weren't far off the Roosters in that loss. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have looked clunky, with two unconvincing wins followed by a disappointing loss to the Knights last week.
I like the Rabbitohs here. They've faced stronger opposition to start the season and their attack looks more dangerous. With the line sitting at just -1.5, it feels like value and I wouldn't be surprised if it moves.
On the total, I lean under. The Bulldogs have gone under in all three games this season and combined these teams are 5-1 to the under in 2026. The last three meetings between these sides have also gone under this number. Even with good conditions expected, recent form suggests a lower scoring game.
Best Bet: Rabbitohs -1.5 $1.90 (2 units)Panthers vs Storm
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One of the marquee matchups in the NRL and historically a tight, low scoring contest. Since 2020 the Panthers hold a slight 8-7 edge, with an average total of just 34.1 points. Unders have been a consistent theme. Penrith are -8.5 with a total of 43.5.
The Panthers continue to look like they're in a different league. They're 4-0, winning every game by 20+ points and allowing just 7.5 points per game. Their defensive system is on another level right now.
The Storm started the season strongly but have dropped their last two games and come into this in a bounce back spot. There's been a reshuffle in their backline, with Meaney moving into the centres, which should help defensively, particularly against Penrith's left edge.
Even though Penrith haven't beaten Melbourne by more than 8 points since 2022, it's still hard to go against them given current form. No team has come close to matching them this season.
On the total, I lean under. The historical trends strongly point that way and Panthers home games have been heavily skewed to the under. The Friday night under trend also adds weight. That said, with the way Penrith are playing, it's hard to be overly confident about fading points, so I'm sticking with the spread as the play.
Best Bet: Panthers -8.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)Dragons vs Cowboys
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The Cowboys have completely dominated this fixture, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings. The only Dragons win came back in 2021. This has also been one of the highest scoring matchups in the NRL, with the over hitting in 7 of those 8 games and an average total of 55.1 points. The Cowboys are -2.5 here with a total of 49.5.
The Dragons have been one of the biggest disappointments this season. Since the final stages of their game against the Storm, their form has dropped off significantly and it's hard to see where the turnaround comes from. There are some changes this week with Fale, King-Togia and Couchman returning, but none of those really move the needle.
The Cowboys had a slow start but now come in with back to back wins and look to be building some momentum. Even with their strong record in this matchup, I can't confidently back them away from home.
This feels like a must win game for the Dragons and with them as underdogs at home, that's the only way I can look, albeit with very little confidence. The total is difficult to get a strong read on. The historical trend points heavily towards the over, but current form suggests otherwise. The Dragons have struggled badly in attack, while the Cowboys' recent games have been a bit more controlled.
Best Bet: Dragons +2.5 $1.90 (1 unit)Titans vs Broncos
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A high scoring and unpredictable matchup. Since 2020 Titans lead the H2H 7-5, although the Broncos have won the last three meetings. The average total sits at 49.3 points and this fixture has regularly produced points. The Broncos are -12.5 here with a total of 52.5.
The Titans picked up their first win of the season last week, but it wasn't convincing against a struggling Dragons side. The Broncos, on the other hand, have turned things around after a poor start, winning their last two games on the back of much improved defence.
After conceding 33 points per game in their opening two matches, Brisbane have tightened up significantly, allowing just 13 points per game across their last two. That defensive improvement is the key factor here.
I don't like the spread. The number is big for an away side and this matchup has a history of producing unpredictable results. Home underdogs in general have been covering at over 60% in recent years, which adds further hesitation to laying this number.
On the total, I lean under. The Titans attack still looks clunky and two of their tries last week came off poor edge defence. The Broncos defence has improved significantly and should present a much tougher test. Given the unpredictability of this fixture and the recent defensive trends, this number looks slightly high.
Best Bet: Under 52.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)Sharks vs Warriors
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A tight matchup on paper. The Sharks lead the H2H 6-5 but the Warriors have won the last two, including a 40-10 result in 2025. Historically, this fixture has been inconsistent, with results going both ways. The Sharks are -4.5 with a total of 47.5.
The Sharks are 2-2 and bounced back well last week in Canberra after a poor home loss prior. The Warriors are 3-1 but coming off a disappointing upset loss to the Tigers where they looked clunky, particularly in the halves.
I don't have a strong feel on this game. From what we've seen this season, there's not much separating the sides. That said, I lean Sharks. They're back at home where they've been elite ATS and generally respond well after a home loss. Even though the recent H2H trends don't strongly support the favourite, I'm siding with the spot and home advantage.
On the total, I lean over but with no confidence. Combined, these teams have gone over in 5 of their 8 games this season and conditions look ideal for points. There are enough attacking weapons on both sides to push this over, but it's not a strong play due to the Sharks generally being very good defensively at home.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)Knights vs Raiders
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Since 2020, the Knights lead this fixture 7-5 and have won 5 of 6 at home in Newcastle. The underdog has been the dominant play, covering 83% of the time. The under has also hit in 7 of 12 meetings. The Raiders are -4.5 with a total of 48.5.
The Knights have been one of the surprise packets this season, improving to 3-1 after an impressive win over the Bulldogs. The Raiders, on the other hand, have lost three straight and look well below their best, averaging just 16.8 points per game.
I like the Knights here. They've looked the better side this season and historically perform well in this matchup at home. Even though the Raiders are due, their current form doesn't justify being favourites.
On the total, I lean under. The Raiders attack has struggled and with them needing to turn around their season, I'd expect a more controlled, defensive approach. Not a strong total play given the Raiders have only had one game in good conditions this season, but the spread is where I'm most comfortable.
Best Bet: Knights +4.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)Eels vs Wests Tigers
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Since 2020, the Eels lead this fixture 8-4, but the Tigers have won 2 of the last 3. This has been a high scoring matchup historically, with an average total of 49.4 and the over consistently showing up. The Eels are -3.5 with a total of 48.5.
This feels like a coin flip. The Eels were brought back to earth last week by the Panthers but still managed to put 20 points on a defence that has been elite. The Tigers, on the other hand, have been one of the most impressive teams to start the season and are 100% ATS, coming off a statement win against the Warriors in New Zealand.
I don't love the spread. The Tigers have been a covering machine and are clearly in form, but I lean Eels at home given their stronger H2H record and the spot. No confidence play.
What I do like is the total. The Eels defence has been poor, conceding heavily all season, and their games are averaging well over this number. While the Tigers defence has improved, this line feels slightly suppressed because of it. With both teams capable of scoring and conditions suited to attacking football, this shapes as a high scoring game.
Best Bet: Over 48.5 Total Points $1.90 (2 units)